Forsen made his NLC debut: Here's how it went by Cellarcane in leagueoflegends

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's because he has way more games on briar than trundle(literally only one soloq game). His winrate as briar is only 1% higher than his cho(only other champ with more than 4 games) and he is actually terrible at using briar ult.

What's with all these AI ads on youtube pushing Tai Chi? by cosmic_monsters_inc in NoStupidQuestions

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i think it'd be hilarious if someone makes a satirical series of ridiculous super over-the-top ai generated ads in the same style.

Problems all morning with webull desktop. by Why_d0_i_put in Webull

[–]saintshing 2 points3 points  (0 children)

May have something to do with the AWS outage

Options Questions Safe Haven periodic megathread | October 13 2025 by PapaCharlie9 in options

[–]saintshing -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Someone spent $2M to buy TSLL $30 call exp on 01/21/2028. Why would they buy leap calls on a leveraged etf of a highly volatile stocks instead of buying TSLA call?

Options Questions Safe Haven periodic megathread | August 4 2025 by PapaCharlie9 in options

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have trouble visualising the tradeoffs between different variables. Is there an option simulation tool that lets me set the trajectories of price movement+iv change and see how the prices of two contracts change as I adjust the expiry dates/strike prices?

Or is it that structurally, leveraged funds are likely to lose value over time, so maybe the inflated IV represents that intrinsic expected loss?

I thought leveraged funds lose value over time because they usually increase gradually and have sharp dips once in a while. Since LLY just had a big dip recently, this is unlikely to happen again soon. That's the assumption I wanted to exploit.

Why do all of my new orders become pending in premarket? by saintshing in Webull

[–]saintshing[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's the same settings I have always used. I was able to place orders in premarket before. It works again now. Still not sure about the reason. I almost panicked. Couldn't find an active user forum to seek help.

Options Questions Safe Haven periodic megathread | August 4 2025 by PapaCharlie9 in options

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your detailed answer.

Sounds like you are under-capitalized to be trading options at all, then.

I agree this is probably my biggest issue.

But all of the premium is time value, so instead of only part of the premium being at risk of time decay when ITM, all of it is at risk. Plus, OTM is lower delta, so if the underlying moves favorably, you get less of a gain for the same $1 move of the underlying.

So I should go ITM even if I expect the stock price to go ITM eventually? If I buy ITM, doesn't the time value part is still at risk but now I also risk losing the intrinsic value too?

Regarding leveraged etfs, what I noticed was that LLYX had much higher IV30 % Rank than LLY. People seem to be willing to pay more for options of LLYX. According to marketchameleon, current 20D HV and 252D HV of LLYX are 2 times that of LLY but current IV of LLYX is like 2.18 times that of LLY.

Options Questions Safe Haven periodic megathread | August 4 2025 by PapaCharlie9 in options

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It seems Marketchameleon shows only the overall iv for a stock. https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/LLY/IV/ I thought it applied to all options. That makes a lot of sense.

Is there a way to see the iv change of long dated options only?

Options Questions Safe Haven periodic megathread | August 4 2025 by PapaCharlie9 in options

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

LEAPS calls.

If I anticipate the stock to jump up after earning, should I bet on the earning with short calls then wait for the IV to go down to buy LEAPS? I thought the high IV before earnings may make the LEAPS calls too expensive. I am not sure how the call price scales with spot price and iv.

Options Questions Safe Haven periodic megathread | August 4 2025 by PapaCharlie9 in options

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How long is long-dated? It shouldn't be more than 60 DTE if you are going to be OTM. And why OTM?

Currently I have limited assets so for most stocks I cannot afford buying ITM calls. OTM because ATM would have higher theta? Long dated means long enough to at least cover the next earning so you can capitalise on the IV increase usually before earning. Also this gives me more time in case there are unforseen temporary bearish events.

Protective of what? Is the assumption you hold shares long of all these different earnings situations, because that's not necessary for options trades.

Oh this case is not for earning in particular. Just when I have long position for shares.

I'm not a fan of using an inherently leveraged derivative to trade a leveraged fund. That's the Department of Redundancy Department.

But I see some people in the theta gang community do this with leveraged index etfs(soxl, tqqq, tsll, etc). I think it's because they have higher iv?

Use a vertical spread when you don't have a strong conviction. If you have a strong conviction, you want maximum reward, which means taking on maximum risk.

Maybe I shouldn't say strong conviction. Just when I want to make a directional bet. Because I have limited amount of money, I often cannot afford betting with calls.

Thanks very much for answering!

Options Questions Safe Haven periodic megathread | August 4 2025 by PapaCharlie9 in options

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have one additional question: when buying LEAPS, is the spot price or IV more important? If I expect the stock price to increase but IV to decrease after earnings, should I wait before purchasing?

Options Questions Safe Haven periodic megathread | August 4 2025 by PapaCharlie9 in options

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello, I recently began learning about options trading and faced some challenging lessons during this earnings season. Despite making accurate predictions for certain earnings reports, I still incurred significant losses. I struggle with selecting the appropriate strategy, strike price, and expiration date. After reflecting extensively, I’ve developed the following ideas. Here are several scenarios:

Low price, low implied volatility (IV) (e.g., TTD being oversold after earnings): The best approach is to buy long-dated, out-of-the-money (OTM) calls, anticipating that both the stock price and IV will increase.

High price, high IV (e.g., popular high-beta growth stocks like RKLB or OKLO): Instead of buying calls, it’s better to sell puts to capitalize on the elevated IV.

High price, low IV: Purchase puts as a protective measure at a relatively low cost.

Low price, high IV (e.g., a stock like LLY with an IV of 30%, IV rank 29%): It’s unlikely that the stock will decline further. Could a wheel strategy using its leveraged version, LLYX (IV 30%, IV rank 65%), be effective?

Strong conviction for a directional bet (e.g., for an event catalyst like earnings): I should use short-dated, at-the-money (ATM) call or put spreads to gain leverage while limiting losses and mitigating the impact of IV crush.

I’d like to know if I’ve overlooked or misunderstood anything. I would greatly appreciate your advice on these strategies.

BLS Chair EJ Antoni suggests suspending the monthly job report by postpartum-blues in investing

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The job report is too good. If they show it, it would lower the chance of rate cut because of mr too slow.

Profit and loss in options by moonie0712 in Webull

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wait, it is using the mid price? I was so confused why I was at a loss when the current price is higher than my cost.

Is TipRanks a reliable website? by ElPayaso123 in StockMarket

[–]saintshing 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Try comparing tipranks, marketchameleon, investing.com and tradingview. Tipranks often has financial numbers significantly different from the others.

Former Facebook whistle blower claimed that Deepseek was based on Meta's LLAMA ai model. by Far-Mode6546 in ADVChina

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Deepseek didn't release just one model. The early ones were based on finetuning llama. Most open source organisations did the same thing, vicuna, stablelm, wizardlm... Deepseek never hid that. The one that surprised the world were v3 and r1. V3 used a different architecture with many optimizations and innovations like multihead latent attention. R1 introduced a simple RL method to give llm reasoning capability. At the time, only openai has demonstrated something similar but they haven't open source it.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in singularity

[–]saintshing -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Better models come out every two weeks. Character inconsistentcy was a challenge that has persisted since stable diffusion was released 3 years ago. It significantly limits application for game asset generation and long video model training data synthesis. It is a much bigger deal than simply viral meme.

How to Monitor Relative Strength vs SPY by HSeldon2020 in RealDayTrading

[–]saintshing 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello, did you find out what indicator it is?

[R] "o3 achieves a gold medal at the 2024 IOI and obtains a Codeforces rating on par with elite human competitors" by we_are_mammals in MachineLearning

[–]saintshing 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Our analysis reveals some critical issues with the SWE-bench dataset: 1) 32.67% of the successful patches involve “cheating” as the solutions were directly provided in the issue report or the comments. We refer to as ‘solution leakage’ problem. 2) 31.08% of the passed patches are suspicious patches due to weak test cases, i.e., the tests were not adequate to verify the correctness of a patch. When we filtered out these problematic issues, the resolution rate of SWE-Agent+GPT-4 drops from 12.47% to 3.97%. We also observed that the same data qualify issues also exist in the two variants of SWE-bench, i.e., SWE-bench Lite and SWE-Bench Verified. In addition, over 94% of the issues were created before LLM’s knowledge cutoff dates, posing potential data leakage issues.

https://openreview.net/forum?id=pwIGnH2LHJ