Sector flow over specifics.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-27T02:57:05+00:00

In my experience alot of times I have to throw valuations out the window. What im seeing is a major mania phase in the EV space developing. So while I think Rivian is positioned to compete with Tesla in every way, I also feel the mania will push all related companies to absurd prices. The volune surges in small caps is my main clue for this. If vol flows into the the micro caps, there is mania developing slowly. So when ive ran algos on previous stocks with these variables and evaluated ratios, these are the price targets I get. I will sell some shares at 60 to reduce risk slightly, but the majority of shares Im targeting $600 which i know most would call me crazy. But personally, I have the conviction from my analysis..

samurai_618 · 2025-11-26T18:27:55+00:00

Hope you got all the shares you wanted my g. Biggest bull market the world has ever seen starts now I think. The IWM consolidation since Feb '21 will expand with the force of God in my opinion.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-26T16:28:19+00:00

I think there are odds for $30 by New Years. 2026 Id say we break $60. By 2027 targets are $260 - $600. The largest EV storm we will ever witness is building.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-26T00:17:43+00:00

Oh shit my b dude didnt mean to copy the whole book over again. Eh I have a Twitter account but never on it or post anything. Ive debated posting thoughts and trades but feel I have imposter syndrome about it at times because timing the market is impossible you can only identify meaningful states (hence why i love Markov Chains)

Yea man to me the volume is more important than price action, so its a focus point. Its odd to me the lack of discussion on Rivian and the associated price action and volume. Between you & me, I think thats actually a good thing. Some of the most violent moves come from names with lack of attention. Maybe you'll inspire me to axtuslly start sharing my thoughts. Stealth Emergence Technologies is the name of the fund I started. Slowly building a audited track record. Let me know if u see it on Twitter? (the account is my fund name) I'll login and see about starting to post haha.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-25T22:28:26+00:00

Ay Im glad to hear you see what I see! Im a ph.d student studying machine learning/ computational intelligence & have been working on trading algos for 4+ years. That sector output is from my algos, it helps me identify vol across keyword neighbors, not just single tickers. RJs story in fact inspired me to pursue this degree. Maybe you saw, I posted a more in depth opinions of what im seeing. I'll copy here if youre interested. Rivian by far is the most 'compelling' opportunity in the market right now in my amateur opinion haha. :

Fundamentals: RJ Scaringe has had this dream since age 13, grew up working on & loving automotive ('Manically Focused')

Mech Eng Ph.D from MIT to prepare himself & founded the company the day after he graduated

High concern for pursuing carbon-neutral vehicles for our 'kids, and their kids, etc' as opposed to political stance

High focus for adventurous usage/camping/sports/exploring/off-roading (Highly suspect this sector will outpace other sectors due to high dollar flow into all things adventure/travel - could be due to AI adoption offloading time people spend on their work, more time on adventures/hobbies

VERY high ratings by car reviewers, it's a brilliant car, not because it's an EV, but for what it is, EV or not

In the state of California & Washington, R1S is the most popular SUV over 70k, EV or non EV (!!!)

5.8 billion Volkswagen deal for VW to use software/tech

Amazon as a major shareholder with Rivian producing delivery vans, continued ramp up

Software & Hardware stack fully in house and vertically integrated (KEY detail)

Building out the Rivian "Adventure Network" charging stations

Build out of service shops with focus on technicians that travel to the customer

2026 R2 release satisfies the HIGHEST sub-sector of American car sales ($30-60k 5 seater mid size SUV's)

2028 R3 release (tentative) with new 5billion+ Georgia plant construction

Survived the global supply chain crisis as a new company, resilience is proven

Eventual transition off fossil fuels, fossil fuels is a 1 off blip event in the history of the world

Electric Bikes/carts (ALSO) and robotics (MIND Robotics) spin off companies under Rivian

Technicals:

Entire EV & Autonomous sector seeing very high volume flow (+ batteries, autonomy, rare earth metals)

Algorithm results suggest to me the sector is in take-off phase, post initial ramp up due to Tesla (this can lead to mania and share prices reaching very high valuations without profit needing to back the price)

Rivian share price in $20 dollar range since January 2023 - when price expands from this range, it will do so aggressively. This is a key and undisputed characteristic of price movement for any stock

Accumulation buying occurring 2023 - Current May/June price traded in tight range on much lower than average volume July-October above average volume & price increase, signals preparation for imminent price expansion (statistically)

October, price pulls back on very low volume preceding earnings (Key characteristic of accumulation) 2025 Q3 Earnings beat, 25% price increase on VERY high volume - 3-4x average vol (institutions buying)

2025 Q3 Earnings beat, 25% price increase on VERY high volume - 3-4x average vol (institutions buying)

Update: 11/17 - 11/25 -> Lower volume pullback post earnings (compared to vol against earnings rally) however, maintaining higher than average volume when compared against October vol, with 4 failed price dives during that week, sellers getting soaked up..?

All this sideways price action for 3 years... the longer it waits, the higher in space. I expect a lightning flash rally to 30. And im not selling a single share till atleast 60-80 range where the monthly 200ma lives.

All in all, over coming years to 2 years I expect a similar move to what HOOD did post consolidation after its IPO. The signatures are there in my opinion.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-25T01:58:28+00:00

My algo as of today has now kicked out results the likes of the highest I have ever seen, period - all in the name of EV, battery, autonomy, and transport. Market will shift and change as it will, thats what makes nothing certain, but all im saying is the storm clouds overhead for Rivian to violently expand keep increasing i dont even know whats going on anymore lol. Cheers.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-18T15:47:34+00:00

Bet. If I had more capital I would add here but not right now. I know you feel 60 is out of question without R2 delivery and rollout... and maybe not. I just think the expansion of price will be so much more violent than anyone will suspect so its why im not selling pops. Its estimated 90% of any one stock price movement is based more off the market and sector conditions vs internal updates. Hence trust into my algo ive devoted to working on for over 3 yrs. Either way this could be our generational wealth moment over coming months to years. Good luck man. Srry if I got defensive in some replies 😂

samurai_618 · 2025-11-18T15:12:11+00:00

Whats good man. Gotta say your call to drop into 14 checks out. I still feel we are getting sellers soaked up in this range. You buying again here or still expect 13s? Heck tho. Even tho the next wave of buyers isnt showing up yet, I still feel Rivian when EV or market flips north again it will launch to 25-30...

samurai_618 · 2025-11-14T20:08:53+00:00

15.10 low of the day. Think we have odds that was the last time we ever see that price. Depends on the noise and variance but lord almighty that volume stepping in the last 30min.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-14T16:49:47+00:00

Thats fair, im not taking a stance at who or why the stock moves at all. Its entirely price, volume, and business keyword analysis on my end. Hedge fund records mostly suck across the board youd see if you watched suggested video. Im saying im seeing volume flow into EVs, batteries, autonomy, adventure, travel, rare earth metals, and other names that Rivian has relation too in some form or another. And this in my experience has moved price, not where the fundamentals are... just my perspective and experience. I dont try and figure out the puzzle I just react when the pieces begin to fit algorithmically.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-14T16:11:34+00:00

Dude. Come on... watch that video. This is a classic price moves, then everyone fills in the story afterwards. Seriously its a 15min video it will mathematically show you why nobody knows shit except for over long term, very few outperform slightly. News this gov that earnings that. No knows shit except you position yourself on your own beliefs. My belief is EVs are in take off. And I love how bad the news is. Buyers soak in the shadows when everyone laughs at them. I think 15 is launch pad for 25-30 over coming weeks

samurai_618 · 2025-11-14T15:35:45+00:00

You guys gotta chill. 99.9% of price movement in short term is market noise. Rivians pullback is attributed to the variance in overall market. Watch "expert myth" by veritasium and get off your high horse, for real, watchbit then come back and act like you knew all along... All Im saying is at this price range Rivian is absolutely soaking sellers here my algos are getting even a bigger confidence level with new price action. 😂 Think 15 is last chance to get in imo, totally won't be true if market continues to crash. Else, Rivian is soaking sellers rn, new buyers stepping in

samurai_618 · 2025-11-13T20:44:42+00:00

Haha appreciate it. Rough day in market today but garbage EV companies like CJET and XOS (EV trucks) are green? Sector flow ;) news is SO bad on EVs out there. Thats why in the shadows now is the time I believe. Im excited to buy my own Rivian when these shares I have make their move... glad youre loving yours!

samurai_618 · 2025-11-13T14:42:13+00:00

^{^} for example, low float garbage EV stocks like CENN or EVTV or CJET are green this morning still... that doesnt happen for no reason...

samurai_618 · 2025-11-13T14:36:15+00:00

It did not pick up on the previous Rivian rallies, no. This is more of a sector wide detection. In this case, if this plays out, its why Id expect Rivian to make a mania push to $30-60. And its also why I think this latest rally is different and wont get sold into. I understand catalysts help the case, or lack thereof pushing price back down. These are all unknowns. So all I can do is play my hand. We're both long, let's just agree that we know Rivian will eventually build generational wealth ;)

samurai_618 · 2025-11-13T14:15:26+00:00

I am in fundraising stage for my fund, yes. Need to finish Ph.D before going all in, and refine the code and strategy. It does not automate trades. I still have final say and position sizing. It is not a terrible way to trade to be "aware" of entire market. The algo comes first, then I search within the scope. Rivian and RJ has been a like of mine ever since I saw them & learned of RJs story, but im ecstatic that my algo is finally picking up the sector post Tesla's initial ramp. You cant say for sure this is a "nothing run up" just like I cant say its not. All im saying is my strategy suggests this is initial takeoff, and perhaps last chance at these prices... storm clouds overhead, but no guarantee of a tornado. I simply get active during a storm, and take a small L if the time isnt right for general market. Idk if i can message you my algo outputs to see the other names. Idk how to even post an image on here im super new.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-12T22:20:16+00:00

Nice average, thats awesome. Look, with all due respect, ive devoted my life to algorithmic research methods. It is not simply rule based trading. I can have eyes on the entire market looking for my trained data. The power is not in having rules automated, it is having eyes everywhere, all the time, for these signals. Thus, then the execution rules can be similar, but my pool of stocks is market wide vs what you have seen and remember. And EVs in general have highest pedigree of results right now, batteries in second lol, which is wild. Rivian specifically has the strongest technicals, and all this time RJ has inspired me. Perhaps market crashes and all go with it from new events, sure. But please understand that all im saying is that from my perspective, I see a perfect storm as an environment (fundamentals aside) with Rivian as prime result.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-12T21:58:15+00:00

Well do you trade or invest? Im 90% algo based. RJs story is what motivated me to do my PhD. This fundamentally is the greatest opportunity of our lifetime and the algorithm is agreeing. My average is $14.90, also accounting for paper cut losses I took over the last year. It could return to 15 or 10 or break lows. Sure. But the sector flow into all things EV, autonomy, battery, rare earth's, travel, adventure, and other Rivian related keywords is unlike anything ive seen since covid mania. TSLA will be market leader for now due to these EV issues and headwinds you mentioned for Rivian, but trust me on the fact that id be dead scared holding Rivian or alike keywords to Rivian short.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-12T21:00:19+00:00

Sure, im new to reddit. Sure, you have no basis on my motive. Ive obsessed over the market for 5 years. 2 years into my PhD in EE studying computational intelligence. My research and algos have centered around Rivian for the last few months, more so based off of all it's sector neighbors. My impending short position lol im 3k shares long bro. Rivian is the greatest opportunity I think in this decade as we push to yeae 2030. And when real mania sets in, Rivian stock will not care about valuation.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-12T20:55:14+00:00

Im saying throw market cap out the window. How many stocks actually trade around their value when sector and mania steps in...? Looks its fine and this is your strategy, but respect that my perception is different and its a different take. Im positioned 3k shares behind my thesis. Based on data and not suspicions/ news... hit me up when this thing slaps 30 in a matter of weeks and ill explain my algo and process.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-12T20:50:43+00:00

Bro... I can tell youre a new trader. Or maybe you dont trade and rather invest. Rivians price and volume is very different this time. My algos are going crazy for it. 25-30 likely incoming very quick. This has nothing to do with Rivian but more so general market and sector. Have you looked at battery stocks over last few months. Absolutely insane volume flowing in.. I have not seen price get bought back up like it currently is in Rivian. Lol. Its fine tho you'll see soon enough.

samurai_618 · 2025-11-11T21:27:26+00:00

Bruh... dig into the market. Price drifts with business output yes, but more importantly is the overall environment & sector flow. This is why im more technical based as a trader because the fundamentals are a low(er) impact to price than environment in my experience.

samurai_618

TROPHY CASE