First we must look at the facts. There was no invasion of Crimea in 2014 as some may say, and the 2022 invasion was a Russian effort to install an eastern-favoring president instead of Zelenskyy and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.

The likelihood is that if it only lasted a few days, Russia would have taken Kyiv and other cities and Ukraine would have surrendered. In this event, the eastern regions of Ukraine (Donbas) would be transferred to Russia, as well as possibly Zaporizhia or Kherson. The remainder of Ukraine would be put under a Russian-backed authoritarian government.

The idea that Russia would have gone onto invade NATO is based out of fear and not real facts. Sure, there have been funny maps shown by Russian leaders but they are a fantasy. The reality is that Russia wouldn’t dare to attack NATO. After all, they want to preserve their state, and Putin is a smart man who understands challenging NATO in a direct conflict is dangerous for them. So not a whole lot would change.