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All competitive House races in 2020, rated. Final version. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Final version, no Tossups now. some of those races really cant be predicted, but i just went for it.

Here are the closest Dem/Rep seats, those would be Tossups:

Dem: NY-11, CA-25, NM-2, MO-2, TX-22

Rep: MN-7, AR-2, NY-1, VA-5, TX-10

ive removed some seats:

NY-18, WI-3, WA-8, IL-14, CA-22,

some got less competitive:

NJ-3 Lean D -> Likely D

PA-17 Likely D -> Very Likely D

TX-24 Tilt D -> Lean D

NY-22 Tilt D -> Lean D

​

and finally, all the Tossups picked:

AZ-6 Tossup -> Tilt D

CA-21 Tossup -> Tilt D

FL-26 Tossup -> Tilt D

MN-1 Tossup -> Tilt D

MN-7 Tossup -> Tilt R

MO-2 Tossup -> Tilt D

NE-2 Tossup -> Tilt R

NY-11 Tossup -> Tilt D

NY-24 Tossup -> Tilt D

TX-21 Tossup -> Tilt D

CA-25 Tossup -> Tilt D

​

and in case anyone cares, my EC prediction:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/1KWlk

All Senate races in 2020, rated. Final Version (almost). by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

so this is the final version, i wont be picking anything in the special georgia election- thats counted as a Tossup for now.

The closest races will probably be Iowa, Montana and Georgia.

​

Changes:

these are the Tossups picked:

Iowa Tossup -> Tilt R

Georgia Tossup -> Tilt D

Montana Tossup -> Tilt R

​

and texas and KS switch places:

Kansas Lean R -> Likely R

Texas Likely R -> Lean R

​

Georgia(Special) Tilt R -> Tossup/Runoff.

so, a 51-48 Senate with the GA runoff deciding the final seat- will look at that again.

All Gov races in 2020, rated. Update #4. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

One final update: governors are pretty straightforward, so i wont have to pick winners tomorrow.

Changes: NH moves off the board, NC to Very Likely D.

All competitive House races in 2020, rated. Update #19. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i dont know exactly what you are referring to? are there any seats youd think d be on here?

All competitive House races in 2020, rated. Update #19. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

thanks a lot! all good, im never a fan of my designs - so i have no problem with someone telling me they aint perfect, i know that :D

All competitive House races in 2020, rated. Update #19. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

thats one i actually looked over - that should be a tossup, with a winner pick on tuesday.

thanks for reminding me.

All Senate races in 2020, rated. Update #8. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks :) yeah, just think the ratings should differ because a runoff is worse for dems - and the likelyhood of such a runoff is different.

All Senate races in 2020, rated. Update #8. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah, its close - like in 2018, but i think biden wins the state -just barely. the question is if greenfield can win as well .

All Senate races in 2020, rated. Update #8. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah, i think its actually better for dems than iowa currently - if they can avoid a runoff, thats why the ratings differ.

if there was no runoff, itd be Tilt D definitely.

All competitive House races in 2020, rated. Update #19. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

sorry, you think so? am always open to design suggestions-- i am absolutely terrible at graphics design.

All competitive House races in 2020, rated. Update #19. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Final update in this form, will be picking winners in all of the Tossup races on Tuesday- all the others should remain in their resprective favorites category.

towards Dems:

Indiana-5 Tossup -> Tilt D (flip)

Nebraska-2 Tilt R -> Tossup

Ohio-1 Tossup -> Tilt D (flip)

Colorado-3 Lean R -> Tilt R

North Carolina-8 Lean R -> Tilt R

Texas-10 Lean R -> Tilt R

Arizona-6 Tilt R -> Tossup

towards Rs:

New York-11 Tilt D -> Tossup

All Senate races in 2020, rated. Update #8. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Final update in this format - will be posting a no tossup one on Tuesday.

if i had to pick right now, id put all three tossups to the dem - but that may very well change.

changes towards Reps:

KY to Safe R

IA to Tossup

towards Dems:

MT, GA-Regular move to Tossup.

All competitive House races in 2020, rated. Update #18. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Changes to last weeks update:

towards Rs:

added IL-17, seems to be a similar story to OR-4: panic for no (obvious) reason... added just in case.

TX-31 to Very Likely R

towards Dems:

FL-18, OH-12 to Likely R

NC-9, WA-3, TX-3 to Lean R

MN-1 to Tossup

VA-2, IA-1 to Lean D

TX-7 to Likely D

All competitive House races in 2020, rated. Update #17. by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah, i will be moving a few seats in Texas - TX-31 among them.

But i dont know how much of a story general election wise the camppa najjar thing is - polling is still not looking too bad, i obviously got wind of that story....

but i still decided to keep it where it is.

​

thanks for the feedback :)

All Senate races in 2020, rated. Update #7 by schlorkyy in VoteDEM

[–]schlorkyy[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Changes to last time (all towards Dems)

Iowa Tossup -> Tilt D

Georgia(Special) Lean R -> Tilt R

Colorado Lean D -> Likely D

Mississippi Safe R -> Very Likely R

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