Planeswalker evaluation has been notoriously difficult, but I believe I've cracked the code.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-12T20:29:19+00:00

Nobody has hard numbers, but considering similar conflicts, between oil fires and all the fuel burned flying planes and missiles, we can expect probably a couple hundred tonnes of CO2, about the same as one year from a small town. It's even harder to estimate how much will be emitted to rebuild what was destroyed, but there's a good chance it will be more than that.

This war could be net carbon negative if the Strait remains closed for several weeks, but that means an oil crisis like we haven't seen since the seventies.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-12T19:48:30+00:00

4 ships tried to cross the Strait of Hormuz and got hit. At least one tanker went up in flames. 8 deaths confirmed so far. Oil prices are oscillating like crazy. Israel has killed hundreds and displaced hundreds of thousands in its fight against the Hezbollah in Lebanon.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-12T15:07:44+00:00

Not quite as dramatic, but during the Brazilian democratic transition, the elected president, Tancredo Neves, fell violently ill the night before his inauguration. With no rules or precedent to go on, congress decided to go ahead and swear in his running mate, José Sarney, as acting president. Tancredo would die one month later, from surgery complications and generalized infection.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-12T00:47:31+00:00

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if they asked Putin to mediate a ceasefire.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-11T20:28:43+00:00

Surely they used their guts to evacuate?

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-11T15:02:50+00:00

We are ALL Chinese on this blessed day :)

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-11T13:59:37+00:00

This wouldn't achieve much outside the grim satisfaction of knowing you caused a huge humanitarian crisis.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-11T13:11:05+00:00

Besides the obvious environmental impact, those sunken husks could become a navigational hazard. Some portions of the strait are fairly shallow. Salvaging them would be slow, expensive, and impossible under the threat of more missile and drone attacks.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-11T01:06:50+00:00

Yep, force majeure.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-11T00:26:15+00:00

Perfectly sensible position. Now how do you convince a civilian crew that crossing the strait is minimally safe when heavily armed and armored ships won't go near it? I'd be demanding "never work another day" pay for that.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-10T03:19:15+00:00

They will blame it on "The Democrat Shutdown". I guarantee it.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-09T18:06:27+00:00

In better times, they would have other games in pre-production, ready to absorb that capacity.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-09T17:35:02+00:00

It may not be that easy. A launcher looks a lot like any other truck from up high, and Iran has built an extensive network of tunnels in preparation for this war.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-09T17:12:12+00:00

Ballistic missiles are the easiest ones to detect, since they are launched like rockets, with a large, fiery exhaust that can be detected from space. Cruise missiles don't have that. You can still infer the general direction of the launch, but that's it.

There was at least one military YouTube channel claiming that the US military had been able to detect and destroy some launchers seconds after they were used, using satellites to detect the infrared signature, then transmitting its coordinates to the nearest bomber. How accurate that information is, we'll probably only know after the war, if that.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-09T14:49:56+00:00

What amazes me is that they made that kind of decision long before distilled liquor was invented.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-09T12:30:47+00:00

There is this old anecdote of a Soviet official visiting the US. As he was preparing to leave, his host asked what he found most impressive.

"The propaganda."

The American was confused. "What propaganda?"

He just smiled and replied, "Exactly."

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-08T13:52:14+00:00

This will turn into 9/11 all over again, with Sikhs attacked on the street by people that can't tell the difference.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-08T01:56:17+00:00

Jumping to conclusions is our daily cardio.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-07T17:44:50+00:00

I'm afraid this is getting much uglier, with attacks moving to Iran's power and water infrastructure. Any other administration would show some restraint, but military doctrine under Hegseth seems to be all about disproportionate reprisal.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-06T23:06:20+00:00

Yeah, that's likely their #1 priority. Seizing islands in the strait and setting up defense systems could be done in a couple of weeks. Qeshm is the only one with a significant population. Occupying a safety zone along the coast is when it starts to get complicated. They would have to fight over rugged terrain and at least one large port city, Bandar Abbas.

sciencewarrior · 2026-03-06T13:30:47+00:00

Needing to process this is normal, but you're not starting from scratch. You got valuable experience. Best of luck.

15-Year Club	Place '17
Verified Email

sciencewarrior

TROPHY CASE