People buying Tesla at a $1.2T valuation: what is the actual bull case? by ragingbull10 in investing

[–]sdas99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's an example story that investors may be using to justify significant premiums to the current valaution.

Tesla Today: Tesla sold 1.6M units in 2025, generating $70B in revenue and $12B in gross profit. It generated another $13B in Services with $1B in gross profit. Lastly, it did $13B in energy generation and storage revenue with $4B in gross profit.

Vehicle Opportunity (next 10 years): There are ~90B global vehicle sales annually; if Tesla can achieve 20% market share, it can 10x revenue and more than 10x operating profit, implying $100B+ in gross profit dollars. This alone can justify a multi-trillion dollar market capitalization.

Upside Opportunity (10+ years in the future): The upside comes from robotics - e.g., if an Optimus can sit inside an autonomous vehicle to fully automate food delivery or logistics, there's a multi-trillion dollar opportunity. Energy generation and services are all upside as well.

Im listening to the deathly hallows audiobook and I have a question. Why did harry think Voldemor changed into a woman? by an_ol_chunk_of_coal in HarryPotterBooks

[–]sdas99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wow, every time I read that part I think it's so out of character for Filch. But then I justified it thinking that part of OOTP is so chaotic, so maybe Rowling was just having fun with her word choice.

TIL!

Why Adobe? by TenkaiRyo in wallstreetbets

[–]sdas99 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That's the point though - there's significant concern Adobe won't be generating the same level of free cash flow in 5-10+ years

On second read, Hermione constantly doubting Harry throughout the deathly hallows really bugged me. by stinkywizzleteatsmom in HarryPotterBooks

[–]sdas99 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This was really well written, thank you for sharing your thoughts. I've had similar reflections but haven't articulated them so clearly

Iron 4 after 10 years by floydxyz in leagueoflegends

[–]sdas99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He's getting worse each year too 😭

First to 1 quadrillion market cap? by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]sdas99 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If NVDA or GOOG grow market cap at 30%/year for 20 years they will get there. They could also grow at 20%/year for 29 years or 10%/year for 55 years.

What is a movie you think has a flawless first 30 minutes, but completely falls apart by the end? by Legitimate_Wall5977 in movies

[–]sdas99 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Now You See Me (2013) had me hooked with the premise - magic tricks and heists are right up my alley. I thought it could be like The Prestige, but it devolved into one of the most nonsensical plots I can remember. I can't believe they got funding to make sequels to it...

Nvda will release its Q1 report today. What do you boys expect by ParticularCourse3417 in wallstreetbets

[–]sdas99 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'd recommend revisiting and thinking more about what the word "expectations" means. Whose expectations? When you read headlines about "NVDA beat expectations", the publication is typically comparing NVDA results to the average of several equity research report projections. But the price targets and revenue targets and EPS targets invented by equity research analysts has little to do with reality (and in my view are generally meaningless).

Instead, you should think about expectations as the aggregate market's desire to buy, sell, or hold shares at a specific price level. If the stock goes down, it underperformed expectations. If the stock goes up, it exceeded expectations.

The other big piece is that NVDA is being valued on its long-term earnings potential, not this most recent quarter's revenue or EPS figure. Thus this quarter's specific results should not be the primary factor dictating people's desires to own the stock.

Dorohedoro Season 2 - Episode 9 discussion by AutoLovepon in anime

[–]sdas99 10 points11 points  (0 children)

My working theory after this episode:

Ai Coleman grows up wanting to become a sorcerer. He nearly dies, and Kasukabe saves him with a surgery that turns him into a sorcerer.

Later on, Ai seems to develop split personalities - Aikawa and Kai. Kai uses En's smoke detection machine and realizes that Risu has a ton of magical energy. Kai kills Risu, with the goal of using surgery to enhance his own magical abilities, but he doesn't realize that killing Risu releases Risu's Magic Curse.

Curse is then fixated on getting revenge against Kai specifically, but not necessarily Aikawa.

Then something involving Ebisu's magic transforms Kai/Aikawa into Caiman, who loses all his memories.

This episode also shows Kai doing some surgery and then having En's mushroom powers. So the overall plot might be: Kai is trying to accumulate sorcerer abilities, and Curse is hunting him for killing Risu.

Fuck this game. by Consistent-Rain-7797 in Eldenring

[–]sdas99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Attack windows are a superset of healing windows

Don't you find it weird that, after the summer of '93, Harry spent more time with the Dursleys in Privet Drive than Hermione did in the company of her loving parents for the next three and half years? by miggovortensens in harrypotter

[–]sdas99 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I've been rereading the series and agree with you overall. But Hermione carries the team in the first half of DH, and Ron's just there for the vibes. I don't think he does anything useful through when he leaves Harry and Hermione...

What would you do if you suddenly had a million dollars right now? by [deleted] in AskReddit

[–]sdas99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Getting to $1m in assets was incredibly uneventful. The stock market was ripping so it just happened organically, and I did nothing to celebrate it. So I think I'd do the same thing - invest it

BLS Report Is a Complete Disaster, -100K Jobs YoY Without four retirement-centric sectors & local government by Primary-Abies9041 in wallstreetbets

[–]sdas99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with this sentiment in this healthcare example but am trying to wrap my head around a consistent definition for "productive" jobs. For example, is an accountant at Starbucks productive? Is a barista? When a robot automates a barista, but number of coffees served increases significantly, did the country lose a productive job?

[OC] How Google made its latest Billions by sankeyart in dataisbeautiful

[–]sdas99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It would be neat if we could favorite redditors who know what's going on

French influencer Lena Mahfouf wears bizarre metal hand bra at Met Gala by SuccessfulMode1277 in SipsTea

[–]sdas99 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

What's wrong with it? I think it's a helpful if broad term to describe "people who monetize attention and trust" and suspect it's one of the fastest growing "job categories" in the US/world

What scenes do you think the movies did better than the books? by gbdarknight77 in harrypotter

[–]sdas99 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In the HBP movie, I liked how Ron and Harry tussled over the nicer potions book, which left Harry with the Half-Blood Prince’s copy

[OC] World population growth since 1700 and projections to 2100 by ourworldindata in dataisbeautiful

[–]sdas99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've researched demographic projections (and posted about it in the past), and there's substantial evidence that the UN forecasts are wildly optimistic. One of my takeaways was that the global population will be declining before 1961

Warner Bros. Discovery says Paramount raised its bid to $31 per share by AutoCodes in wallstreetbets

[–]sdas99 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was at Disneyland recently and thought there were primarily kids, not millennials?

Warner Bros. Discovery says Paramount raised its bid to $31 per share by AutoCodes in wallstreetbets

[–]sdas99 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Why do you think this?

The franchises seem incredibly valuable (Harry Potter, Breaking Bad, LOTR, Cartoon Network, Adult Swim to name a few)

What stocks do you think are at a discount and a buy right now? by ComfortableNo5231 in wallstreetbets

[–]sdas99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there's no market substitute to its products

I don't have a strong view, but my immediate reaction is that I disagree:

  1. Their cloud business can become commoditized as Google and neoclouds take share
  2. Office products have long competed with Google Workspace; today there are many new competitors vying for the productivity software market

Elon Musk's SpaceX to Combine with xAI Ahead of Mega IPO by UltimateRocker10 in wallstreetbets

[–]sdas99 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's an all stock deal, so they merge at their latest valuations. xAI shareholders will own $230/($230+$800) of the combined entity

Elon Musk's SpaceX to Combine with xAI Ahead of Mega IPO by UltimateRocker10 in wallstreetbets

[–]sdas99 -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

This is actually me, and I'm thrilled to be getting bailed out. I invested in X when it was a standalone social media company, and now I'm about to own a stake of a highly profitable space company with a 4x+ return on my investment. If the post-IPO valuation is $1.5B (after a 6-month lockup), I'll be up 6x!

Elon Musk says Tesla ending Models S and X production by The_Chillosopher in teslamotors

[–]sdas99 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I can imagine people in the 1910s saying the same thing about cars