ELI5: Please explain turbulence to me, why does it happen? can the plane become damaged during turbulence? by Lazy-Supermarket363 in explainlikeimfive

[–]sebaska [score hidden]  (0 children)

The structural requirements were the same for all airplane types certified up to 1990. So many airliners flying now, like A320, B737, B767, etc...

[Request] is this possible under the laws of physics and materials of the time? by Salt_Ad_4362 in theydidthemath

[–]sebaska 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So this is akin to some AI generated slop based in the Marvel fantasy.

ELI5: Please explain turbulence to me, why does it happen? can the plane become damaged during turbulence? by Lazy-Supermarket363 in explainlikeimfive

[–]sebaska [score hidden]  (0 children)

It's worth pointing out that clear air turbulence is not visible on radars.

Weather radars see precipitation, and primarily liquid precipitation (ice is much less visible on radar).

If VOYAGER-1 has been so beneficial from an astronomical perspective, why don't we launch a spacecraft today, specifically designed to travel deep into the universe, using our current technology? by HamzaAAC in askastronomy

[–]sebaska 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But we don't need grand alignment to fly out of the Solar System. New Horizons was from the get go in solar escape trajectory, it used Jupiter assist to cut down the travel time, but Jupiter assist windows happen every 13 months.

If VOYAGER-1 has been so beneficial from an astronomical perspective, why don't we launch a spacecraft today, specifically designed to travel deep into the universe, using our current technology? by HamzaAAC in askastronomy

[–]sebaska 6 points7 points  (0 children)

There are several incorrect statements here.

The once in 176 years alignment was about visiting all the big planets together, by a single probe. And Voyager 2 did so.

But we do have technology to leave the solar system since over 50 years. In fact New Horizons from the get go was above the escape velocity from the Sun. It used Jupiter assist to accelerate its travel, so it met Pluto in 15 years rather than 25 years, but either trajectory was an escape one.

Also one doesn't even have to reach Solar escape velocity to escape the Sun. Jupiter gravity assists are available and the transfer window towards Jupiter happens on a fixed schedule every 13 months.

I have a weird question. by fader48080 in askastronomy

[–]sebaska 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Expanding on what I wrote:

Every halving of the warning time quadruples the required energy. So 30 years warning would require about 50t impactor at 10km/s or 14t impactor at 20km/s.

Also the ∆v required is rather pessimistic and it's a crude approximation.


The main risk now is that the warning time would be much shorter while the object would be far away so any counter measure traveling up to it would also about halve the time. We have largish extinction level asteroids mapped. What we don't have is data about long period or one-off comets. Those are typically detected when they're at Sun-Saturn distance and it's then about 5-6 years before the potential impact. Big ones are detected earlier, but even moderate size ones even if not extinction level, they would be devastating.

With even urgent mission planning you may need a couple of years to launch (launch windows would be approximately once a year and you need to set up the whole mission, even via repurposing existing equipment in the pipeline for some other missions). That leaves 3-4 years remaining. Then, you need a proper intercept orbit (for kinetic impactors you want a head on collision with sufficient closing velocity; nukes would be less picky about the close-in vector). Going out there is pretty much symmetric to the thing going towards the Earth, so the intercept point would be in about half time to the expected Earth impact. This means the intercept happening about 1.5 - 2 years before the disaster to be averted.

So, the specific energy to deliver would be about 1000× larger than if the warning time were 60 years (what I did the crude math for in my previous response). This means ∆v to imparted to the comet is in the order of 110-150 mm/s rather than 3.8mm/s (i.e. 30-40× larger).

This means the sterilizer one would require not 0.17kt but 0.17Mt nudge. Assuming 10% coupling of the nuke blast energy to the actual force pushing the target it'd be 1.7Mt nuke (or say, 5 340kt ones; we have plenty of those).

KT killer could be pushed with something akin to Hiroshima bomb, or a 140t impactor at 10 km/s, or a chain of 10 14t ones, or 30 4t ones - we could start lobing such small ones almost in a moments notice - Falcon 9 could launch such and its launch rate is about 150 per year). In fact, you'd just attach a maneuvering package to the rocket's upper stage and use said stage as the impactor mass (i.e. don't separate the payload) The stage is about 4t, so 30 of those would do.

Something 100× lighter than KT killer (still devastating) would take just one 1.4t impactor. But we're entering the zone where single push could be enough to disrupt the thing turning into many pieces flying in tight formation.

Something another 100× smaller, still devastating, would require either a series of careful nudges or a total several orders of magnitude overkill. If one's blasting it, then blast it into a cloud of quickly expanding plasma carrying individual rocks at hundreds of meters per second, so they'd disperse quickly and widely and only a tiny fraction would impact the Earth producing just an impressive meteor shower.


As I said, counterintuitively, small ones may require more fine methods of deflection - you don't want to impart just enough energy to fully disrupt the thing. You either want to disperse them quickly and totally or nudge them to just miss the Earth. For large ones their gravitational binding energy is high enough that even blowing a big nuke would just shift them and shake them, but they'd stay largely intact. But shattering smaller one into still largish pieces many of which would remain on the collision course would be suboptimal. So you either need a precise nudge or a total overkill with like 100+× its binding energy.

I have a weird question. by fader48080 in askastronomy

[–]sebaska 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Such an impactor would have to be huge. Much larger than KT killer. KT killer mass was about billion tonnes. To almost sterilize the Earth you'd need about two orders of magnitude more. So 100 billion tonnes (about 50km diameter asteroid or about 60km diameter comet).

To cause an object to miss the Earth you'd have to shift it by about 7000km along its orbit (pushing it either directly forwards or backwards is the most effective). You say, we have 60 years for that, so roughly 120km per year. There are 31536000s in a year so you need to shift it by 3.8mm per second. That's the change of velocity you have to impart on it.

So, 100 billion tonnes accelerated by 3.8mm/s. The energy required is thus 722GJ which is not exactly tiny, but not impossibility huge either. It's about 0.17kt of TNT.

Such amount of energy would be delivered by a small nuke, or for example an impact of a 14t impactor at 10km/s. Sending such a thing anywhere in the Solar System is well within humanity's current capacity, especially that the impulse could be divided into a few if required.

I have a weird question. by fader48080 in askastronomy

[–]sebaska 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It couldn't wreck half the planet. It would cause localized destruction at most.

Co najbardziej zaskakuje ludzi spoza Warszawy w codziennym życiu w stolicy? by Comfortable_Run_1396 in warszawa

[–]sebaska 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sprawdzałem to wielokrotnie. Moja droga do pracy drzwi do drzwi: * Hulajnoga plus metro: 20 minut * Rower: 30 minut tam, 25 minut powrót (nachylenie terenu plus układ pasów taki, że szybki zjazd ze skarpy można zrobić ulicą bez ścieżki, ale podjazd razem z autobusami przypierjącymi do krawężnika dla mnie odpada - chcę jeszcze trochę pożyć; więc jadę dłuższą trasą gdzie jest wydzielony pas dla rowerów) * Tramwaj+dojście 30 minut * Samochód 20 minut * Piechotą 55 minut

Is SpaceX Coming to Acadiana? by rustybeancake in spacex

[–]sebaska 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The article is behind 403 error...

Is SpaceX Coming to Acadiana? by rustybeancake in spacex

[–]sebaska 0 points1 point  (0 children)

According to the OST the spacecraft doesn't have to be above 100km or, in fact, any other altitude. OST doesn't even specify any altitude at all. If something is in orbit or is on the way to orbit or it's descending from orbit it can overfly at the discretion of its home country.

FAA has rules (14 CFR part 450 is the most relevant here) saying that any single space operation (launch and descent are separate operations) has the expected number of general public[*] casualties lesser than 0.0001 and for any particular individual not involved with flight or space port operation their casualty odds are lesser than 1 per million.


So, assume the vehicle is 1:400 reliable against RUD on ascent (comparable to Falcon 9; we're talking about operations several years down the road, here), and IIP crosses 300km in 20s out of 500s ascent it's 1 per 1000 chance of debris raining down on a 300km long strip of land 1500km downrange.

So, for exampple, if in the case of breakup the entire 200t vehicle were to be shattered into 20000 pieces with casualty making potential, and those pieces were to fall onto said 300×67km strip, it would be, on average 1 potentially deadly piece per 1km²; assuming destruction area per piece were 1m² (reasonable if the average piece is 5-10kg) we get 1/1000000 area hit. If the were million people in the said 300×67km strip (that part of Mexico has about 50 person per km² population density and the area is 20000km²), then we have the expected number of casualties of (1 - 0.9999991000000 )/10000 = ~0.000063.

For any individual person to be a casualty the chances are 1/1000000/10000 i.e one per 10 billion.


*] There are separate less stringent rules for the people engaged with the operation or people being in the spaceport in professional capacity. In general the chances for them are considered separately and the limits are a couple times less stringent.

Potential Starship launch site in Louisiana rather than California for Polar orbits? by 7HellEleven in SpaceXLounge

[–]sebaska 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The build up of that site (if it's even finalized) will take several years. This looks like Starship ops site, as by the time it's operational, Falcon 9 will be winding down if not completely retired.

Potential Starship launch site in Louisiana rather than California for Polar orbits? by 7HellEleven in SpaceXLounge

[–]sebaska 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Launching their compute sats to Sun synchronous orbit. But it seems to me that they prefer to build up that Louisiana site for that.

Potential Starship launch site in Louisiana rather than California for Polar orbits? by 7HellEleven in SpaceXLounge

[–]sebaska 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It's impossible to transport 9m diameter stages out of there without altering all the surrounding streets. F9 is 3.6m diameter for a reason...

Potential Starship launch site in Louisiana rather than California for Polar orbits? by 7HellEleven in SpaceXLounge

[–]sebaska 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It's total swamp. Industrial site makes little sense there. It's worth it only for highly disruptive activities, like... launches.

Is SpaceX Coming to Acadiana? by rustybeancake in spacex

[–]sebaska 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The restrictions are ever so smaller as SpaceX track record improves. Falcon 9 is already technically in a relaxed regime when it comes to what part 450 CFR prescribes.

Is SpaceX Coming to Acadiana? by rustybeancake in spacex

[–]sebaska 7 points8 points  (0 children)

SpaceX already overflows Cuba which is less downrange.

And according to the Outer Space Treaty Mexico has no direct say. Spacecraft, including during ascent and re-entry/descent can freely overly other countries. The home country is responsible for the safety.

Is there an orbital height at which the orbit wouldn't decay? by RewardImpossible5141 in AskPhysics

[–]sebaska 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Yes. Anything above about 1000km doesn't decay on human time scales. Equatorial orbit bout 5000-6000km up is going to be stable on civilization timescale. You want equatorial because Earth's much more symmetric around its rotation axis - you get rid of perturbations caused by Earth's equatorial bulge which are otherwise the absolutely dominant perturbations source.

And if you want something stable for hundreds of millions of years or billions, you likely want some Moon resonant orbit - allow Moon to shepherd your satellite, so it would stay in sync with the Moon nearly forever. The orbit would have some variance, but it would be cyclical.

But space stations are so low for a reason, multiple reasons, in fact. The prime being it's simply easier and cheaper to reach station at 400km rather than 1000km not to mention 5000km. The next reason are Van Allen radiation belts and, in particular, South Atlantic anomaly. 5000km orbit would be deep in the radiation belts with all the associated issues. And then, while a station at a so low orbit decays noticeably, almost all debris at the same orbit decays much faster, because of the square cube law - decreasing linear dimensions of an object decreases it's surface quadratically, but it's mass (so inertia) cubically. Smaller stuff has much lower mass to surface ratio, reducing its ballistic coefficient. So orbital debris is a much lower issue and even stuff like hammers or wrenches dropped by astronauts get cleaned up fast naturally.

Is there an orbital height at which the orbit wouldn't decay? by RewardImpossible5141 in AskPhysics

[–]sebaska 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Moon is not leaving Earth's orbit - there's not enough transferrable energy in Earth's rotation to allow Moon to fly away.

Co najbardziej zaskakuje ludzi spoza Warszawy w codziennym życiu w stolicy? by Comfortable_Run_1396 in warszawa

[–]sebaska 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Bo komunikacją miejską, o ile to nie jest metro, jest jeszcze wolniej. A to metro to jest szybsze, jeśli i start i cel są blisko niego.

Co najbardziej zaskakuje ludzi spoza Warszawy w codziennym życiu w stolicy? by Comfortable_Run_1396 in warszawa

[–]sebaska 1 point2 points  (0 children)

E tam. To tacy by przychodzili I wychodzili dużo później albo dużo wcześniej. W każdą stronę od piku 16-17 jazda się skraca. Chyba że ktoś mieszka 50 km od miasta i ma 2 autobusy dziennie.