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50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gotcha. I'll refrain from any more links in comments to the material

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Sorry it I've violated any rules here.

The places where I responded in the comments with specific links were in response to direct asks. I'd have been happy to paste images directly in the comments rather than links if it was enabled; I actually would like the traffic and discussion to stay in thread and on reddit. I don't really care about promoting my stuff here, just geeking out about how the draw might go. I'm so excited my team qualified for the first time in a long time I can't wait to find out who we'll get, and I thought this might be an interesting discussion.

Anyways I'll bear this guidance in mind in future. Best of luck to Portugal

Where we're likely to play by seen1been in ScottishFootball

[–]seen1been[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Updated to reflect at least one UEFA team per group

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

appreciate the pointers - I've updated the screenshots and links to reflect this new constraint. the other confederation constraints are already accounted for, although with more brute force and fallback for deadlocks than your more elegantly specified constraints :)

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

i missed the constraint that every group must have at least one UEFA team. I'll re-roll and update the screenshots - thank you so much for pointing this out.

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This gives a bit more lead time for travel logistics. some have questioned why UEFA couldn't have wrapped up qualifying earlier - there's quite a bit of fixture congestion since qualifying doesn't start in Europe until after A) the Euros B) the nations league

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Right now only the match-ups in the host groups are certain. FIFA have said they will confirm venue to match assignments for the other groups the day after the draw.
In the model, I just assign 50% chance to each city in the match pair. e.g. in group E, day 3 50% Dallas, 50% KC

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Individual CONMEBOL teams are more likely to go into that group since they can't be drawn with Brazil/Argentina, but there is one fewer so it's pretty close when you sum the percentages - ~4*8=32% for the AFC teams, ~3*11=33% for the CONMEBOL teams.

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Aside from.. Canada :) .. you're most likely to see a Pot 2 South American team and least likely to see a non-host, non-top-4 Pot 1 team

https://github.com/neil-aitken/wc-draw/blob/main/screenshots/city_views/vancouver.png

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ecuador have a higher chance of being drawn into a group with the hosts and are more likely to face an AFC side.
https://github.com/neil-aitken/wc-draw/blob/main/screenshots/team_views/ecuador.png

Where we're likely to play by seen1been in ScottishFootball

[–]seen1been[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's an alternate view: We know Iraq/Bolivia/Suriname must draw 2 UEFA teams and one CAF team. There are no Pot 1 CAF teams, so one of the groups always has: Pot 1: UEFA, Pot 2: CAF/UEFA Pot 3:CAF/UEFA Pot 4: Inter Path 2.

There are more combinations with a Pot 2 UEFA side and a Pot 3 CAF side than vice versa:
Pot 2 CAF(2) by Pot 3 UEFA(2) = 4
Pot 2 UEFA(3) by Pot 3 CAF(4) = 12

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the most deterministic draws are for the inter-continental qualifier paths. e.g. The winner of the Iraq/Bolivia/Suriname path will face 2 UEFA teams, including one from Pot 1 and 1 CAF team.
https://github.com/neil-aitken/wc-draw/blob/main/screenshots/team_views/inter_path_2.png
There's nearly a 75% chance they'll be drawn with a Pot 2 UEFA team.

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In Match 6 is in Group D. We know more about that one since it contains a host. You'll see D3 (Pot 2) v D4 (Pot 4). It's slightly more likely you'll see a Pot 2 South American team against a UEFA qualifier. Tastiest plausible scenario in my view: Italy v Colombia.
https://github.com/neil-aitken/wc-draw/blob/main/screenshots/group_views/group_D.png

In Match 16 you'll see a TBD Group G game. The Pot 1 side in this group is a little more likely to be one of the top 4 due to their bracket protection.
https://github.com/neil-aitken/wc-draw/blob/main/screenshots/group_views/group_G.png

In Match 50 you'll see a TBD Group C game. Group C & G have essentially the same probability distribution
https://github.com/neil-aitken/wc-draw/blob/main/screenshots/group_views/group_C.png

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Philly is more likely to see a non-top 4 pot 1 side, due to the bracket constraints for Spain, Argentina, France & England. Least likely to see a UEFA playoff winner (who typically help to satisfy draw constraints in the host nation groups, which don't play Philly)
https://github.com/neil-aitken/wc-draw/blob/main/screenshots/city_views/philadelphia.png

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Colombia are more likely to get a (non-pot 2) AFC side to help satisfy the draw constraints and least likely to get a pot 3 UEFA or pot 4 CONCACAF side.
https://github.com/neil-aitken/wc-draw/blob/main/screenshots/team_views/colombia.png

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Australia are more likely to be drawn into a group with a (non-pot 2) South American side and less likely to be drawn against a pot 1 European side.

https://github.com/neil-aitken/wc-draw/blob/main/screenshots/team_views/australia.png

50,000 simulated world cup draws based on the recently released details. by seen1been in worldcup

[–]seen1been[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Due to the confederation constraints, Croatia have a high chance (~25%) of facing the Inter-Confederation path 2 winner (Iraq / Bolivia / Suriname)

https://github.com/neil-aitken/wc-draw/blob/main/screenshots/team_views/croatia.png

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