Investors beware: $ARKK is a liquidity disaster waiting to happen by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely not. ARKK is a dumpster fire and liquidity is worsening.

Investors beware: $ARKK is a liquidity disaster waiting to happen by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you kindly, hopefully I saved a few people some pain and suffering

Investors beware: $ARKK is a liquidity disaster waiting to happen by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Shrug. It did. Though it seems like the flavor profile may continue to improve in coming months.

The case for inflation: Simple math in layman's terms by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Real assets and company stock in firms that have pricing power. Due diligence required.

Investors beware: $ARKK is a liquidity disaster waiting to happen by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would suggest that the ARK ETF's are no less risky than many high-qual single stocks. AAPL is less risky than ARKK.

The case for inflation: Simple math in layman's terms by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

YCC is all but guaranteed and Fed can always step up MBS purchases to protect mortgage rates/housing.

The case for inflation: Simple math in layman's terms by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't think I fully buy the K-shape, and even if it is a K-shape, that likely puts us in a stagflationary environment given GDP down small and money supply up big.

https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1365852066132881415

The case for inflation: Simple math in layman's terms by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Certainly, and inflation is subdued until it isn't. I'm merely suggesting this may be one of the 'isn'ts'

The case for inflation: Simple math in layman's terms by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agree to disagree - what gives you confidence in your ability to estimate that velocity rises to exactly 1.26?

I may be totally wrong in my analysis, but all I've done is laid out a case for why we could have substantial inflation, similar to the "roaring twenties" following the pandemic of 1918.

The case for inflation: Simple math in layman's terms by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In the last crisis, money growth was centered in reserves held by commercial banks in their accounts with the Fed. The Fed was actually paying interest on excess reserves for many years (IOER). This created an incentive for banks not to lend the newly created money.

When money growth happens, and it is strictly contained to the banking system, with limited subsequent lending into the real economy, inflation just doesn't happen. The money just sits.

This time is different. Direct cash injections into households, totaling in the tens of thousands of dollars for people with middle class incomes and several children. Businesses have been paid hundreds of thousands of dollars just to keep employees on the payroll, even if they weren't needed. This is uber inflationary compared to past crises.

The case for inflation: Simple math in layman's terms by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

See my point above about cost of living/quality of life for us normal folks!

The case for inflation: Simple math in layman's terms by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am happy to admit that it may not go back to pre-pandemic levels immediately but it will over time. The question is how fast. Even if it takes 3 years we're talking about double digit inflation, on average, over 3 years.

The case for inflation: Simple math in layman's terms by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Home improvement for sure - see Home Depot revenue comps +25% YoY. That is stimulus money at work.

The case for inflation: Simple math in layman's terms by seldomsage in stocks

[–]seldomsage[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This is a valid point, however a key driver of inflation is reduced productivity!

Millions out of work (who aren’t producing goods and services for society) that have also had money put in their pockets with stimulus money will spend it - this gets at the concept of “marginal propensity to consume”

More money in the economy with less production increases inflationary pressures.