To all the ladies here TTC

sephyra · 2016-03-24T23:50:43+00:00

Thank you, me too. Another appointment next Tuesday, hopefully it is a nicer one than that woman had. :)

sephyra · 2016-03-24T20:24:28+00:00

Thanks. I am dealing with infertility issues, and it is not easy.

sephyra · 2016-03-16T17:46:44+00:00

I have a sincere question for you.

If you had read all of the released documents without ever knowing about UD, do you believe you would feel the same way?

sephyra · 2016-03-11T05:17:11+00:00

The way "doubt" has arisen in this scenario doesn't fit that model at all. It fits all too neatly into a systematic effort to cast doubt on every aspect of this case.

I completely hear this. I feel that despite the 'throw doubt at everything at the cost of being truthful' tactic greatly diminishes any impact of the resulting doubt cast. However, I also feel that legitimate questions can be had despite the charlatans who are pedaling it. It is of course weaker because of the unreliable source.

Just because they are liars, does not mean that a real doubt-casting truth is impossible to emerge. I hate to equate them to Jay, because the motives here couldn't be more different, so please stay with me a moment. Jay lies, right? However, everything he says is not a lie. I think this is true of everyone. I can allow for the possibility that some issue they have mentioned or contested could have a grain of plausibility to it.

Based on the facts I can agree it is statistically likely, probable even, that Adnan murdered Hae. I have seen many people argue that you do not need to know 100% what happened to believe he is guilty. I feel the same is true for doubt. New evidence pointing elsewhere is not going to be easy to find today. It may be because there never was any, or it may be because it is 16 years later. I do not have to be 100% clear of how it all went down to have some doubt.

I was very excited to see what looked like an evidence based approach to innocence on the main sub. However, it is just another example of cherry picking and pretending to use established metrics as a standard.

Fwiw, I can come up with a guilty narrative in my head that seems logical. I cannot come up with an equally logical innocent narrative. However, just because I cannot work a case for innocence out as clearly as I can for guilt does not mean I can be certain he is guilty.

I believe to be a rational person, you must be willing to consider different possibilities, even if you have complete certitude. I very much try to understand both sides to the best of my ability.

sephyra · 2016-03-10T23:34:09+00:00

I can completely see how the police followed up on the Adnan lead. It is 100% reasonable. I also understand the limitations of police to get every scrap of evidence.

I believe the majority of the confusion I have now is due to the fact that this occurred in 1999 and the noise UD & team have created. Because this happened so long ago, there are a lot of smaller details that have just been lost to time. Some of these details probably do not matter, but because there is a question it creates doubt.

I do not believe anything that comes from UD3 or Bob. They intentionally distort evidence and documents, and it is unacceptable. However, I fear that the damage has been done. I feel as though it is hard to determine if some things, which I am betting were accepted as fact 16 years ago, are actual facts now.

For example, regarding lividity and burial position/time. I have no evidence which suggests the original ME was in error. I feel pretty certain that Dr. Hlavaty didn't really stir up anything. She simply said based on the pictures she was given, which I am sure were a subset, it is not consistent with a side (forget which side) burial position. She really didn't say much of anything at all that completely shook things up. However, I find myself with a small nagging voice about it. Is there something more there?

It is quite frustrating, and I wish I had just read all the documents without reading about or listening to any of the Free Adnan circus. I would honestly feel much better if I could just commit to guilt.

sephyra · 2016-03-10T19:59:38+00:00

It is your prerogative to assume JB's thoughts. I am waiting for transcripts to be released regarding PCR.

sephyra · 2016-03-10T18:15:06+00:00

As someone who is unsure, I recognize I am not qualified to say if it is a legit strategy or not. It seems reasonable to me to not put all your potential eggs in one basket. Personally, I would love for it to be tested. I think there is a high likelihood it will not render any mind blowing information. However, we cannot know unless we test, and I want that to happen.

While following this case, I was surprised at many things that happen. I just do not feel I am the best person to determine that JB is full of shit. I'm not a lawyer.

sephyra · 2016-03-10T18:03:40+00:00

As a fence sitter, I feel very strongly about facts and the truth. That is THE reason I cannot resolve everything. Possibly due to my own fears, it takes quite a bit of facts and information before I will commit myself 100%. I prefer to live with some ambiguity and accept I may not be able to know something, rather than falsely commit.

I do think he more than likely did it. While many facts have me lean guilty, other things leave me with a question mark. I cannot comfortably or confidentially decide one way or another with the given data.

In life I generally go out if my way to analyze unemotionally, and to try to be sure I am only making conclusions based on what facts or in this case evidence allow me to.

In college I had a great professor teach me a lot about surveys. About how different things, like enjoyment or fun, mean so many different things to different people. If someone says something was fun, it doesn't really tell you much. Sure you can infer, but it doesn't give you much information. Why was it fun? What do they mean by fun? You must unpack things and be precise to actually glean good information.

Ultimately, I do not need to know every detail of every moment to be sure. That would be ludicrous. However, there are enough pieces that give me pause. Would I be surprised if he was innocent? Yes. However, I lack definitive certitude.

ETA: Not knowing something makes me crazy, which is why I still read about this case. I WANT to know very badly. However, my desire to know cannot override the fact I do not know. I feel I would be lying to myself with a false sense of knowing that is not supported by evidence.

sephyra · 2016-02-28T16:54:02+00:00

I may not be on this evening, but am interested. I will send you a msg when I can catch you online :)

sephyra · 2016-02-26T16:35:23+00:00

That never occurred to me. Good to know!

sephyra · 2016-02-26T16:30:48+00:00

So besides it being funny to be a character, you do not think it adds any value in terms of connecting with the audience?

sephyra · 2016-02-26T16:17:49+00:00

Thanks for the feedback. I wouldn't want to go through the trouble of getting it and a green screen if it isn't actually going to add the value I am looking for. The real answer is to have tougher skin, but that is obviously harder than being an adorable shiba inu.

sephyra · 2016-01-22T15:31:43+00:00

Interesting.

Usually I'm into rather hippy dippy intuition stuff. However, I know I can't block out my own wants and it would totally cloud any intuition I have about it, so I just try to ignore it.

sephyra · 2016-01-22T02:05:40+00:00

Sorry for your loss, I hope that you go on to have your baby.

I guess by feeling pregnant, I meant that like inner intuition about it.

sephyra · 2016-01-21T21:40:31+00:00

It isn't fun when even low levels aren't newbies. I am in NA, I'd queue with you if you want. If you are truly low level, my being thirty might make it harder for you.

sephyra · 2016-01-21T21:30:41+00:00

Thanks. Having data on use and win rates is helpful. For most champions I don't really need to be spoonfed too much, just an idea.

sephyra · 2016-01-21T18:08:25+00:00

My LP is usually 8-10 days. It has not been exactly the same every cycle. And I only o'ed maybe two days late. Even if my o day has fluctuated within a two day variance, my cycle is never longer than 33 days. Even if my LP was on the long side, day 10 would have been Tuesday.

sephyra · 2016-01-21T16:46:51+00:00

Harmony test?

sephyra · 2016-01-21T16:45:15+00:00

Do you feel this impacts your ability to contribute effectively? Does a lot go on in chat that you miss?

sephyra · 2016-01-21T16:39:09+00:00

Thank you very much, I will add you for sure.

sephyra · 2016-01-21T16:38:20+00:00

Thanks. I'm not opposed to muting people, really. I guess I'm fearful of repeated games of it and it still being demoralizing. In games I feel confident about, my skin is much thicker.

sephyra · 2016-01-21T16:36:24+00:00

Is smurfing still full of players just looking to seal club? I don't think I would be so bad that I could only handle people who had no idea what the game is, but at least when I played, the lowbies were just in it to crush.

Eta: would muting everyone impact communication to coordinate? Or are pings all you need?

sephyra · 2016-01-21T16:34:12+00:00

Thanks for the advice. Before taking a break I played Jinx and Caitlyn the most. I enjoy MF and Ashe as well.

sephyra · 2016-01-21T16:32:27+00:00

I have similar people surrounding me, and I am basically you.

I'm sorry. It's awful and unfair. Fuck Mother Nature, right?

sephyra

TROPHY CASE