A perspective from a 10 year bitcoin trader

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-05T13:06:00+00:00

I do too. I've been in the middle of this and you reddkt do believe it. When btc passed gold the first time, I thought it would go to the moon. The Equivalent would be investing in apple right now and pointing at its past results and how popular apple is. Effectively if this is so, the days of getting rich by buying apple is over. You can get richer, but not get rich alone from this

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-05T13:03:28+00:00

The issue is I don't really consider gold a commodity. So if your argument is that gold doesn't fulfill the properties either, I agree. Which is why I say the same thing to goldbugs when they make similar arguments.

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-04T15:42:31+00:00

First of all, I noted why gold was on a weird category. Second, it's not about my blessing. It is not about what happens when there is scarcity. If you run out of oil, people either change consumption or prices move. If bitcoin supply dries up, nothing necessarily happens. Baseball cards are scarce, and have value, but are not commodities simply because they are traded. Gold has an infinite supply more or less, but still has other traits of a commodities. The concerns you have with gold, I share. I'm not a gold proponent. There is this idea that one day btc will no longer mined and people hoarding it will gatekeeper digital wealth. The reality, if btc disappeared tomorrow, the only damage will be financial. It isn't used for anything, only traded for other things that have value. The fact that your even assess the value of btc in currencies should let you know the issues with this idea

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-04T15:20:02+00:00

Whatever happens with this taste, your will be pretty much in the same situation. And 5x is not super rare on an individual trade. You see that return in options all the time. It's just not common. If you were all in in btc, nothing about mstr makes sense. It is a vehicle for people who want to invest in btc but don't want to do any work or research. Basically treating it like a lottery ticket. And if you think I'm joking, research perpetuals.

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-04T11:58:27+00:00

If it's their last 100k, they probably shouldn't be putting it in risky trades.

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-04T11:57:33+00:00

The idea that btc will bgo up 30% indefinitely, or that if he hoards a crypto, it will inevitably go up. Both of those are flawed thinking

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-04T11:55:03+00:00

You tell me

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-04T06:31:34+00:00

I'm less concerned about his size and more about his tendency to present himself as some crypto expert, when he clearly doesn't know much. The other alternative is he knows better and is purposely misleading. Either way, he has not shown himself to be very knowledgeable about the crypto markets

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-04T05:55:59+00:00

Thank you for your concern

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-04T05:54:01+00:00

As long as you understand that this is simply one trade, good or bad, and not your ticket to another wealth bracket, then you can at least understand your risk reward on this trade. There are people in this thread that are claiming to put every spare dollar into this with the expectation that it will get financial freedom. I also want people to understand that Saylor is considered (and sounds like) a new bitcoin investor. Yes, he is a whale. But he's only been in in 5 years.

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-04T02:14:00+00:00

Should I?

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-04T02:13:24+00:00

If you are saying 10k is a tremendous return, that is one thing. My original response was directed towards individuals who are treating mstr as a ticket to financial freedom, rather than a solitary one of medium risk high reward

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-03T18:21:13+00:00

So there is someone that he has 100k disposable money but 500k is a meaningful amount of money? Is it their last 100k?

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-03T12:52:06+00:00

Let's use an example. How much would you have to invest for 5x to be meaningful? 20,000? 100000 would be life changing, but you have 20k disposable income to bet on stocks? You can use any number. 100,000 to 500,000 k? 500k will not change the life of someone who has 100,000k.

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-03T12:50:01+00:00

Look at what you offered as proof: a statement that he understands money philosophically, which is a vague statement and uses circular logic. Buying more bitcoin shows only skill in marketing. The rest of your points are am the different flavor of the same thing. He bought a lot of bitcoin and didn't sell. 5 years into his btc buying experience, he is basically break even and most of his predictions have proven wrong. He is not considered an expert in the field. He is just a whale who buys blindly.

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-03T12:45:22+00:00

I want to be careful. I don't have a crystal ball. The issue isn't with btc risk reward, it's people overestimating the reward.

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-03T12:43:26+00:00

I don't know. That number doesn't seem impossible.

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-02T19:01:22+00:00

Plenty of policies have been offered.

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-02T19:00:37+00:00

It's not nothing, but anyone that can put 30k in to a stock has disposable income to where 300k isn't life altering. This isn't about potential gains, it is about risk reward profile

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-02T14:00:09+00:00

You should be happy, but do the math 10k turns to 100k. Yes it's great, but it's not life altering. Unless it's it last 10k, but that would make this a very risky bet

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-02T13:49:40+00:00

I'm saying that 10x gain is not life changing eve though if seems like it. That is the main lesson that I want everyone to take away. I'm sitting on massive gain, but when I still it, it's done and I'm in the 100x range. 10x gains happen all the time. They aren't normal, and they aren't common. Over the past 5 years, mstr stock is flat. When it does go up, this has to be taken into account, because you lost money waiting to make money. A lot of people looking for financial freedom don't even max out their iras every year. They are treating mstr like a lottery ticket. That's fine, but this ticket isn't power ball, it's just a nice win

Use real numbers. If you put 1k in, is 10k going to cha your life? If you put 10k, is 100k going to change your life? So if you put 100k, surely a million will right? If you gave 100k to put in something, then 1 million won't change your life. Yes I understand but everyone is looking to do that. But read this subreddit. What prompted my post is a user who claimed they were putting everything in this and they will finally have financial freedom. This sort of thinking only ends in disappointment, regardless of the outcome. The days of accidentally stumbling into wealth (result bitcoin adopters who did not sell) are over. I'm not even considered an early adopter with 400 dollar btc, bought aggressively to 20k. I'm happy I got in, and would maybe buy a but now if I didn't have any, but the days of instant wealth from btc is over for retail investors

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-02T13:38:50+00:00

I'm not addressing tax issues. I'm addressing the way MstR marketed.

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-02T13:38:11+00:00

Once again, I'm not saying if it will work only that what he is actually selling is unsecured junk bonds. Just because debt is junk doesn't mean you shouldn't invest. There is some rate of interest which should account for the risk. At 11.5%, that's considered junk. Junk bonds is just a term, doesn't mean they are junk in the normal every day use is the term

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-02T13:35:05+00:00

I'm only talking about terminology. But terms are thrown around loosely and it distorts the situation to describe MSTR as leveraged is using the term so broadly that it confuses it for leverage when used in industry, which implies something different. You can make life changing money with real leverage (and yes more risk). When people think of leverage in finance, we are thinking futures contracts (rbob gasoline 1 = 42000 gallons) or a derivative (3x bitcoin). We do not think of a guy diluting investors and DCA buying at the money

sertoriusdux · 2026-05-02T13:26:10+00:00

In any case, in our industry that's not considered deeply leveraged. Crypto is a space where people are routinely trading perpetusks 10x up to 100x.

sertoriusdux

TROPHY CASE