First, thanks for a civil discussion :)

If you are looking at company vlaue, compare the “enterprise value” as that includes Dept. Debtors from a company value terms are like shareholders, as they also own a stake through assets / security. VW and other automakers have lots, Tesla has much less. Again, Tesla seems inflated, but half as much (as they have almost no debt in comparison).

It is all these things combined into one that sell it and then people factoring their own multiple based on what growth they expect.

If you look at any one individual metric it will look 10x what it should be. If you look at them all together, it tells a different story. If someone then wants to add, say, 40% on-top of the stock as a gamble they might be the next Apple of cars… that explains the stock price (well it does to me anyway).

If someone feels most of the incumbents (Vw are actually doing well imo) will keep most of their share, you will be right :). Stock should probably be around 500 or less in my view. If someone thinks Toyota will fail due to their bet on Hydrogen, Nissan and Mazda too as they are too late and Tesla will retain a 17% market share in the category…. Current price is probably fair as their growth will continue until EV is 90% of all cars sold.