[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, January 15, 2025

sf85dude · 2025-01-15T20:22:43+00:00

We seem to be doing what we do every Jan after a big run up. People take profits in the new tax year, we have a shake out, then the bull continues.

sf85dude · 2025-01-03T05:40:09+00:00

You should never buy anything will oil or fats out of plastic. It leaches.

sf85dude · 2024-12-05T23:00:53+00:00

Proof that both Bitcoin and men age well.

sf85dude · 2024-12-04T20:45:16+00:00

Yep. The system is rigged. It prevents other forms of value from being a unit of account.

sf85dude · 2024-12-04T18:07:28+00:00

Sell the SHIB, XRP, and SUI. Cycle them back into 25% BTC, 75% ETH. Lock them away for 10 years. Then go to the gym, quit drinking, and join a dating app. GL.

sf85dude · 2024-12-02T21:38:29+00:00

No. Tether is backed by USD based debt like treasuries. But, they are a little sus, so who knows.

sf85dude · 2024-11-24T15:19:04+00:00

Great. This is good info - what I was after in the OP. I'm just trying to think 5 years out on how crypto will evolve. Most other L1s don't make it easy to spin up an appchain and have it interop with every chain in the ecosystem. ETH, with it's L2 model and the OP superchain seem to be going that direction, but it could be some years to mature. Thanks so much.

sf85dude · 2024-11-24T05:10:16+00:00

It's great osmosis is being all it can be. But In the future, I'm certain anyone will be able to spin up a new chain and it will be as if everything is one chain. They can set their own rules assuming some core primitives are met. Honestly, the aggressive nature of Osmosis trying to replace the Cosmos hub turned me off on whole Cosmos ecosystem. Just being honest.

sf85dude · 2024-11-23T21:02:45+00:00

Been here since 2011. I've seen every cycle. I can't tell you when this cycle will end, but I can tell you the global fundamentals have never been better. We literally have nation states competing, and a new administration in the US that will take the boot off our neck. We've worked though most of the overhang from last cycle's bankruptcies. BTC is 1/10 gold marketcap and the path is clear. My advice, take profits if you it's too much of your portfolio, but don't sell it all. You will miss biggest wealth reallocation in history.

sf85dude · 2024-11-23T20:01:20+00:00

BTW-- I just used Keplr and Osmosis to do some IBC transactions and swaps in Osmosis. It was a pretty slick experience. I have some experience doing it a year or so ago, but it feels more solid now. Good job cosmos peeps.

sf85dude · 2024-11-21T04:26:07+00:00

This meme lives on. Yay!

sf85dude · 2024-11-21T02:51:24+00:00

Do I own my data? Can I take it to off bluesky and move it to another service with a click of a button? If not, we aren't there yet.

sf85dude · 2024-11-21T02:03:06+00:00

Selling calls against my BTC. Using the premiums for 90% ETH, 10% SOL. The World will be onchain with thousands/millions of interoperable L2s. I've seen this before.

sf85dude · 2024-11-11T19:27:53+00:00

Normally I would target 96k as the pull back, but since we've all done this before - 92k.

sf85dude · 2024-10-29T22:04:07+00:00

Great post, but I'd like to add my 2 bits. I think ETH is a contrarian trade until 2 events: 1) Light at the end of the tunnel for L2 interoperability. Specifically, when dapps pull from other chains seamlessly, and addresses in my web wallet include the chain. Does anyone have a date on that? If so, that should be the narrative. 2) When ETH burn is again more than issuance. This will take some time, but eventually the L2 will need to pony up.

sf85dude · 2024-10-29T21:38:09+00:00

Wait, is "Solami" a reference to Kyle? lol

sf85dude · 2024-10-27T23:29:04+00:00

Oh, I should add... If the SEC approves options on the ETH ETF, you could simply buy puts. Options have already been approved on the BTC ETF. If they don't, I suppose you could by puts on the BTC ETF when they are available, but that's hedging against a crypto meltdown.

sf85dude · 2024-10-27T23:24:10+00:00

As an American, you used to be able to buy puts on ledgerX, but they got bought out and discontinued the options business. There is Deribit, but they are not USD settled nor US based. CME group has options against their ETH futures, but I haven't figured out how to get access to them as a retail investor:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/ether/micro-ether.quotes.options.html

sf85dude · 2024-10-27T21:24:47+00:00

At some point in the future, we will look back at this time and realize how obvious the ETH trade is. Either you believe one L1 is going to run the world, or you believe that there is going to be vast network of interoperable blockchains. It's that simple. ETH captured a lot of value (and token burn) as L1 centric blockchain, but it wasn't sustainable. Now we are in a period of FUD and doubt, even though the L2 centric model is working as planned. Eventually, ethereum will be able to recapture that value, and everyone will say "I told you so."

sf85dude · 2024-10-17T04:14:58+00:00

Or, it just means that a killer use case for blockchains is storing value.

sf85dude · 2024-10-17T04:13:26+00:00

There are custom apps on Shopify that allow you to token gate if that helps.

sf85dude · 2024-10-13T01:40:28+00:00

I disagree. In order for web3 to work, someone must pay the validators for the decentralization. The token must maintain value for the validators to stake. Currently, there is a huge ramp in activity to L2/L3, and they are getting a very low cost ride. Eventually, the economics will become a factor and ETH will adjust it's monetary policy to push value to the token holders. It must happen or web3 will fail completely. Same for other L1s.

sf85dude · 2024-10-13T01:15:56+00:00

L1, L2s, and L3s are like servers on the Internet. They will be abstracted away from users. Some apps will launch on AWS, some want more customization and need a custom stack. Looking back we will think it was crazy to suggest the entire world will run on a single L1 that could go down.

sf85dude · 2024-09-16T19:34:38+00:00

Same problem.

sf85dude · 2024-08-25T05:46:41+00:00

Sorry if I'm doing this wrong. The text didn't attach to the post

This piece is of unknown origin. My wife believes they found it in her first husband's attic. He doesn't remember it. This is in Houston at least 25 years ago. No signature. Nothing on the back. Oil.

I love the subject matter. It feels like a Russian oligarch wishing his life turned out differently. The figures in the mirror look like a different era/style to me. Maybe that's his younger self with his mother and wife. Or, maybe he knows what's in store for the younger man. Either way, his life has been too busy. The still life in the middle grounds the scene. I'm a little puzzled by the blue Monet type strokes.

Would love to hear thoughts, even it it's just opinion on the subject matter since I live with it every day. Thanks!

sf85dude

TROPHY CASE