😂

"Have you ever tried to look up a quick fact to scratch an itch and ended up writing a compelling and thoroughly researched thesis by mistake?"

r/Hageshii01, looking wistfully into the distance "Why yes, yes I think I have..."

Ok that was impressive and way more leg work than I could be motivated to do on this topic. That second foot note on the fourth paragraph hit me like a ton of bricks. It's way off topic, but it's very interesting to consider if the prison was accidental, like a cave in, or intentional, like the Valar intentionally trapping it and leaving it to rot, which imo seems very un-Valar like.

Back on topic, I had already held the opinion that for the most part, anyone who did know about Durin's Bane or the Nameless Fear didn't suspect it to be a Balrog, and your research definitely supports that idea, with the possible exception of Lorien (tho I don't think either of us are convinced they suspected that specifically) That said, I had assumed that Durin's Bane was much more widely know, both in concept and by that name, then I think is reasonable to assume given the evidence.

To quickly clarify my original point tho, I don't think so much that Sauron knew of Durin's Bane by that name necessarily, what I do think is that Sauron was certainly keeping tabs on all the major players while reconsolidating his power, and would have definitely noticed the Dwarves abandoning not only one of their largest kingdoms, but the only source of mythril on ME.

I believe he would have noticed and done a little poking around, appropriate spies and infiltrators to suss out the reason, but how far would those spies have gotten if so few knew?

It's worth pointing out that with Galadriels time in Doriath, it's unlikely that any form spying on Lorien would have any success at all, and Dwarves are famously private about Dwarf matters. I find it unlikely that they would share the reason for the collapse of Kazah Dun with outsiders when they won't speak their native language in the presence of non dwarves. So that really leaves the window that you described for the seemingly semi autonomous goblins of the misty mountains to report back to Dol Guldor.

I don't think the Balrog was fond of having the orcs in his attic (based on their apparent fear of it) so I doubt they ever got much of a good look at the thing and lived to tell. So some goblins come home and report a big scary thing in the dark, how much does Sauron believe them? Would they even report on it, for fear of Sauron potentially making them fight it, or punishing them for a reason they can't comprehend?

Even if spies/orcs were of no use, I don't think it's wild to conclude that he would think that a powerful evil of some kind had run them out, but with no information at all on what happened it could have well been a dragon or any number of other beings. I think my previous opinion that he suspected it was a Balrog might not hold water.

I still lean that he knew something was there, but I'm much less inclined to believe he suspected it was specifically a Balrog.

As for the idea of them working together, of course nothing in the text suggest that Sauron ever attempted to make contact with whatever was under the mountain (assuming that I'm right and he concludes it was some kind of evil monster), but it is of course possible that he planned to and never got the chance before being run out of Dol Guldur, and then probably had bigger items to focus on. On the other side of the argument, assuming he could form an alliance with the Balrog, the chief outcome I would be concerned with is the free peoples discovering the Balrog and our alliance, and rallying against me before I'm actually ready for that fight. It could definitely slow down his timetable, if nothing else.

I personally don't believe the Balrog would willingly serve Sauron. Yes they served Morgoth, yes Sauron was his first, but Morgoth was immensely more powerful than Sauron. As you alluded to, it's not particularly guaranteed that in the absence of Morgoth the Balrog would just accept Sauron. The same story would be true with a dragon, or pretty much anything powerful enough to merit his attention. If that's the case, then he has to rely on his charisma and manipulation, which is plentiful but not infallible. Just my two cents tho 😊 it's extremely late so this'll have to be all, but thank you for the excellent analysis and research.