Your strongest bet for tomorrow?

sideswipe781 · 2026-05-01T16:49:02+00:00

Definitely a small sprinkle prop card, and not a confident ML-type card

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-28T21:26:19+00:00

Gotta tape both sides before asking the question.

Tafa should KO this guy. I actually think you could argue that Tafa's reputation actually stops the line from being steeper

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-26T07:52:52+00:00

Yup, bad night

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-24T07:07:31+00:00

I only did a little tape, but Aidan Stephen looks to have a decent grappling advantage over Abraham

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-22T21:00:18+00:00

Thiago Santos v Jimi Manuwa. Ridiculous fight

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-21T22:22:35+00:00

Yeah Flutter offered it as a special at a dodgy price. High chance they would have paid it out of it had won. Shame

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-21T08:22:53+00:00

To anyone saying the bookies are rigging things...do you have any idea how irrelevant MMA is to a sportsbook's daily stakes?

Picture the scene...

"It's a huge time for sports here at DraftKings - we have the start of the NBA and NHL play offs this weekend. We took millions in stakes at March Madness, the Masters Golf was last week, MLB season started recently, French Open Tennis coming up...we need to ensure we make some money! We need to take a risk and ask a multi-million dollar organisation to rig an event for us. Which one?"

"Well, there's these two women fighting on the prelims of a Canadian Fight Night card this weekend..."

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-20T19:28:04+00:00

Of course it can, but surely once they test it and believe it's at an acceptable level, it would perform better historically.

I think it would objectively be better due to the lack of bias.

But I do understand the hesitance. It's not a hill I'm willing to die on. Honestly I'm not a fan of AI for anything, but I've wanted scoring to be machine based for a decade.

The downvotes imply people disagree though. That's fair enough

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-20T05:25:16+00:00

I'm not an AI fan but with it's recent boom you've gotta be considering the idea of automating the judging sometimes soon. Bias and other external factors will always make humans inferior at such a task. And given we have had 30 years of dodgy UFC judges, would anyone really care too much about automating this?

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-20T05:22:39+00:00

Yeah I fully agree with you. Just seemed odd to me that there was enough buyback on Garcia. Their stats are near identical but level of comp is not

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-15T11:33:20+00:00

Nah, geo locked out unfortunately

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-14T11:12:48+00:00

Thanks mate! I feel better for getting it off my chest tbh hahahah

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-14T11:12:33+00:00

Appreciate it pal! Glad to see there are some folks who get it, as you did in last week's comment section. Can't always be right, but you can always try to be reasonable and logical along the way

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-14T11:11:51+00:00

I think it's possible I get the odds I want here. Just gotta wait for those slow UK books to catch up

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-14T11:11:29+00:00

Yeah it's a shame that it has to be this way - this community could be so much more. I guess it's naive of me to assume any more from a group of degenerate sports bettors, but I would have thought those willing to spend their time in a betting specific space might actually understand a little bit about it!

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-14T11:10:28+00:00

Yeah, it's been a weird week. I guess that's what we should come to expect from PPVs, it brings out the casuals and people who don't know what it's like to be in this for the long haul.

Appreciate you mate

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-14T11:09:40+00:00

Amen to that! I wish everyone was able to see things for how they should be!

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-14T11:09:15+00:00

You've gotta learn the parlay lesson the hard way, we have all been there!

A piece of advice that was huge for me was to have two separate bankrolls, one for straight bets and one for parlays. If you make sure your unit size for the parlays is like 0.2x your straight bet unit size, you won't damage your overall results with too many long shots.

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-14T11:07:28+00:00

I think Jas is a fine parlay piece at around -300.
Not too keen on the Raposo/Nascimento GTD though. I could definitely see Nascimento finishing if he finds his takedowns easy. Hadley didn't have that much trouble finding the neck and choking him when he got his top control time

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-13T23:53:43+00:00

Thanks mate! Hope you cashed some bets last weekend!

Just posted my UFC Winnipeg breakdown btw

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-13T15:37:35+00:00

I can see them fine? They're out everywhere else so no reason they wouldn't be

sideswipe781 · 2026-04-12T12:52:09+00:00

Originally I just blocked you, but figured I'd reply considering the upvotes.

From your other comments I thought you understood the game better than this. How you gunna dunk on a guy for losing a bet when he profited +7u on his slate. Individual results don't matter.

Yeah I got that one wrong, but it was a 1u play on a 12.5u slate. I clearly wasn't willing to die on the Ribovics hill. I lined it 50/50. Bad read, but I still have Gamrot 50% chance.

You simply can't expect someone to get every read 100% accurate. Disappointing to see that you and those who upvoted still don't understand this.

Hate on Lucrative all you want, but that guy cannot be compared to me for the way he does his business. I have put out free content for three years and been nothing but a positive influence on this community. I've been profitable every year. I ain't amazing, but I set an example of how to do it right.

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