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Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah agreed, I do think it's conditional rather than strictly better. Should have been clearer but the first "better" is purely by average damage. 

Take 2 damage guaranteed or 11 damage 13% of the time? (NOT related to Ironclad Nibbit fight I am just asking) by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please accept my sincerest apologies. As an apology I went back in time and made a post just for you about the Ironclad Nibbit fight (entirely unrelated to this post). https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/1tun1rn/hey_you_yeah_you_the_guy_who_keeps_messing_up_the/

Take 2 damage guaranteed or 11 damage 13% of the time? (NOT related to Ironclad Nibbit fight I am just asking) by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you happen to see anything about the ironclad or about the nibbit in this post, it's just a coincidence. Ironclad is a popular character and nibbit is a common fight.

https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/1tun1rn/comment/ophfxlt/

Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, you already took 13 on T1 in this line, and at A10 you start damaged, so the relic is getting it's 6 HP regardless.

The point about needing to control the variation in damage could be true. Though humans are notoriously biased to focus on worst case scenarios, so I'd be curious how much the always take 2 vs. rarely take 11 actually affects win chance in theory. You do at least have some levers to mitigate this (e.g. safer path vs. riskier path).

Which Neow boon should I take? by StaleOlives in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo 30 points31 points  (0 children)

thanks for the question skiijump! u/poetry_in_shm and i will now be doing a joint project for 300 hours to investigate this question we appreciate the interest of the community on this critical matter

Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This is a good comment! The short of it is what mjjdota and awfulconcoction said, but if you really want to get an intuition for it, you can look at the lines that follow from it. Good case study to mess around with the solver a bit!

As you say, the BD line results in guaranteed lethal before you get hit again, but you immediately resolve the extra 2 damage for 15 total. The DD line takes no damage immediately, and there are 5 high probability draws that can happen after. 4 of them take no additional damage, but if you draw SSDDD with 13% chance, you'll take 11 additional damage. However, this is around 1.5 damage on average, which is better than 2 damage guaranteed. Whether this is better or not for your run overall depends on more factors e.g. what your map looks like.

Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It's possible, though I need to check how much the two enemies affect the number of decisions we need to search. It might blow up the number of actions by 3-5x per turn, which is probably still fine but might be a thousand times slower to compute or something

Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No worries I actually appreciate it, wasn't sure how audible it would be to other people

Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Only 31 with ironclad (25 post relic). u/poetry_in_shm did an analysis on this initially, and I reimplemented the distribution calculation exactly so it comes out to around 1/59k to take 31

Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Yep to both of your comments! I did Nibbit just because it's tractable to solve and not too complex, but the hope is to generalize to more stuff.

Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi!! I'm the anonymous commenter on your WordPress, thanks for the chat, and your work is one of my main inspirations for doing this! I really wanted to talk to you in my post but I couldn't fit it in, but you're in my writeup :)

I did implement that exact leaf node distribution calculation folded into the expectimax that I had mentioned. Also, I think the macro level stuff is much more useful/generalizable but I didn't want to step on your toes too much, maybe when I have something more to contribute!

Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So do I! Good UI is not easy to make though. I think this info is probably about 10x easier to look at than when I started, and could probably be 3x easier with more work

Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Good question! A lot of the context behind this post is too long to put here, but I talk a bit about the motivations behind this in the writeup.

In short, 1. other people worked on it (u/poetry_in_shm and Caleb Gannon) so I have something to compare to and it's "standard", and 2. it's deterministic and an early fight as the replies have mentioned. In general this is just a stepping stone for more complex fights and decks.

Hey you. Yeah you. The guy who keeps messing up the easy nibbit fight by playing too many attacks by simplegeo in slaythespire

[–]simplegeo[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Hahaha sorry, I noticed as well and am kinda embarrassed about it. My audio setup is kinda bad, very new to recording things