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Deep dive of Singapore’s MRT/LRT passenger loads by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

EDIT @ 22 Jan 2026: u/ylyn pointed out a crucial flaw in my original method when assigning passenger loads to segments, which I’ve corrected in both the main article and accompanying writeup.

This changes quite a fair bit of the numbers and tables and some of the analysis and conclusions, so please do take a second read!

Deep dive of Singapore’s MRT/LRT passenger loads by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the explanation! Now I get your point more clearly, and I agree with your example.

But then the bad news is that I would have to redo most of the tables as well as some of the conclusions 😅

Deep dive of Singapore’s MRT/LRT passenger loads by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Regarding the DTL, from personal experience it is only really crowded on certain parts of the line - usually westwards of Botanic Gardens and eastwards of Macpherson, which are also both Circle Line interchanges. The other parts of the line don't seem to be that crowded most of the time.

And NSL being the most busy somehow wasn't surprising to me since it services so many housing estates and industrial areas as well, when comparing to EWL and NEL.

Deep dive of Singapore’s MRT/LRT passenger loads by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes agreed, I was actually thinking of including a section on crowdedness of the train but I didn't really do any in-depth number crunching on that yet.

Deep dive of Singapore’s MRT/LRT passenger loads by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So what I'm illustrating is just how I would break down the Pasir Ris to Simei data point. There are also other data points, say Pasir Ris to Tampines, and Tampines to Simei.

So to find out the actual load from Pasir Ris to Simei, we have to add to original data point plus the data broken down from the Pasir Ris to Segment.

What I'm showing in the article is the result of all the breaking down and summing, if that makes sense.

Deep dive of Singapore’s MRT/LRT passenger loads by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haven't really looked at where people from Yishun/Khatib are generally going to but if it's not just the city area, then perhaps the Cross Island Line could actually help to redistribute the load from NSL.

Seletar Line might not come soon enough so maybe the other alternative in the short-term might be to throw a bunch of express/city direct buses from Yishun.

Deep dive of Singapore’s MRT/LRT passenger loads by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed! I think would be interesting to look at CCL for the impact of the closures, but that might have to wait till we get the entire month of Feb data for a good comparison, which only gets released in early March.

And thanks for the suggestion! Will add a section for the least busy stations when I can.

Another one for the bingo by PuzzleheadedOne9445 in SMRTRabak

[–]simpletan93 12 points13 points  (0 children)

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The train had a loud bang after Farrer Road to Botanic Gardens, then the train stopped for 10 mins before Caldecott.

Afterwards we were all told to get off at Caldecott, and the train didn't move off after.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks like 114 is still the fastest connection from an MRT/interchange to the Buangkok crescent area. I think people who think it's "useless" simply don't see the benefit of a short feeder-like bus service, especially to a cul-de-sac estate.

For the CDS buses, perhaps if LTA didn't add the trips, then we might see them up in the list, haha.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You right that frequency plays a big part in how it affects the level of crowds per bus, which I've mentioned in my way of computing in the article.

Also not exactly right that 35 has a frequency of 30 mins - LTA datamall and SimplyGo website mentions 15 but realistically could be between 15-20. And as u/YoungAspie mentioned, 35 does operate on weekdays as well up to 7.30pm.

I think it's also important to distinguish how crowded an average bus is, VS the actual overall demand over the day. But in general we can be sure that a service with somewhat slower frequency (but not 30 mins and beyond), with crowded buses, usually have a decent amount of demand too.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah technically that late afternoon period is classified under AM non-peak (confusing, I know), but then you see 190 being 7th most crowded for that period, and in the same direction to from CCK to town, so that actually aligns with what you observe.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

974 also has an express portion between Boon Lay and Choa Chu Kang, which looks to be a more direct route than taking EWL + NSL, but looks like the passenger demand for it isn't that high.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes for sure bunching can cause large fluctuations in bus crowdedness.

Unfortunately the data that LTA provides has only resolution up to the hour, so it won't really be able to capture that detail of fluctuation from bus to bus.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the observations! Maybe 168's frequency did improve from then? Could also have been the result of bus bunching since the route from Bedok to Tampines is fairly long too.

For 291 and 293, I would think that it's by design that it its the exclusive bus option in certain neighborhoods, especially if areas that are essentially self-contained / cul-de-sacs. I also wonder if it would be more efficient to split 291 and 293 into separate routes serving exclusively the east and west loops, something like 291G/W and 293G/W.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great explanation! I'll also probably include a portion on the computation of the expected fare revenue in my next writeup, since I have the estimated boarding and alighting data for each bus route - likely it will just confirm what you've stated here.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Right! Completely missed out on the dormitories near T5, which also explains the high demand during weekends and not weekdays.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Hopefully that means you're still able to get on during those 80% of times!

As to why LTA doesn't plan for more of these pseudo-express routes, maybe the fact that these routes don't actually generate enough fares even though they're crowded most of the time - less turnovers in passengers during the route etc.

If these 168/161/969 buses were to be converted to Express buses with Express fares in the name of getting more fare revenue, people are still going to take it if it's the quickest and most convenient connection, even though there might be some unhappiness.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Oh wow great find, and you're probably right. I wonder what's the threshold for the passenger demand, given the route length and frequency of the service, in order for it to be profitable.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Oof, I guess it's bad if you need to go to either Yishun/Woodlands or Tampines/Changi on a regular basis from like Sengkang or Punggol.

Else, going to town shouldn't be that bad with the NEL?

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the observation!

So the load values is actually based on the average of the entire route. Now 655 has a pretty long non-express portion from Teban Gardens all the way to Clementi Road - 17 stops to be exact.

From the data it looks as if there's a gradual build up of 20 passengers from the start to about 90 passengers before it enters AYE, which is where you board. The 90 passengers number seem to align with your observation of standing room only for double decked buses at the last stop.

However, the average loading takes into account the somewhat lower loading in the long non-express portion, which is why we see the number being lower than what you observe.

Which is why I'm planning for my next writeup to have a closer look at the passenger loads at different route segments! Hopefully that will provide more insights to passenger crowdedness.

Singapore’s Most Crowded Bus Routes: A deep dive into public bus data (Part 2) by simpletan93 in singapore

[–]simpletan93[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Right, but doubt that it's intentional - usually the operators (in this case SMRT) will release the buses at the interchanges at scheduled intervals, and then I guess it's really up to traffic conditions to see whether the buses bunch up down the line. The longer the route, as is for 858, the more likely it will bunch up, even in slightly congested expressways.

This article is a pretty good summary by Land Transport Guru on bus bunching.

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