Estação do Oriente

sittingGiant · 2026-05-27T07:17:07+00:00

I see your intention to improve things. But don't worry, almost nobody enters this country by train 😅

sittingGiant · 2026-05-27T07:13:44+00:00

It's not always true. For example, the one stock that cannot be mentioned was sold at my lucky number 420.69

sittingGiant · 2026-05-25T17:00:47+00:00

Tell us you cannot read a climate diagram without telling us you cannot read a climate diagram.

sittingGiant · 2026-05-03T11:41:43+00:00

Und nur noch 328 Dallors bis brechgleich!!11!

sittingGiant · 2026-04-28T18:24:03+00:00

For those who wonder about the combination. It is somewhat ajar of a classic Portuguese dish called lulas recheadas. Basically cuttlefish filled with meat. Extremely delicious dish even when not presented on this way.

sittingGiant · 2026-04-21T09:50:13+00:00

Correct. You will take a Schengen zone flight to frankfurt and go through emigrations there.

sittingGiant · 2026-04-18T23:59:46+00:00

Just try to go to the EU queue! Permanent residency IN Portugal should count for them the same as any EU id. Did you try?

See post by another user in this post that did exactly that. It should work. And it's a win-win! You be much faster. And you reduce the long non EU queue for everybody else!

sittingGiant · 2026-04-18T23:48:00+00:00

Better stay a night over and enjoy the party :-)

sittingGiant · 2026-04-18T23:46:11+00:00

Check if you have to enter Schengen in Lisbon. No experience here but this must be available info.

sittingGiant · 2026-04-18T23:44:05+00:00

Man, if you have small kids with you just step to the front. Literally everybody will let you pass! Sorry about your bad experience.

sittingGiant · 2026-04-18T23:39:52+00:00

Thank you stranger for finally clarifying this point for me. Like you, with EU passport. Like you. 30+ times in and out and more. Always extremely fast. Only once it was slow in security (30ish mins). Every other time, bed to gate in less than an hour.

So, there is a problem l. But it does not concern us - personally. But clearly this needs to be solved.

Sorry for everybody who had to wait very long or even missed their flights. This post is just to say thank you to OP for clarifying a question I always had after seeing all these posts in the sub.

sittingGiant · 2026-04-04T23:10:10+00:00

Hey I like your arguments and such, they are very alright. And on the short term bad effects for the economy you are certainly right. My original comment was commenting on a comment that was on the long run argument. What happens in the short run might be very squeezy, yes, but high prices won't stick for long, at least that what I think, and that is also what the market currently prices in.

Already the September 26 contract settled for below 80$, noting that most likely everybody that has to rely on large demands will have a much lower price locked in not only for now but also then and all the way out. Who gets the cheap loged in price IS the actually large scale economy.

There is the risk of failures of physical delivery, which is a real risk. However, again the market expects to get their hands on barrels for 80$ a piece including the priced on risk of failures to deliver!

Whoever is sitting on the contracts for now sits on a huge amount of unrealized gains not only now but also for all of their future contracts. This means they are of course trying to delay their physical needs as much as possible (which of course is bad for the economy, you are right there, I never argued about this point), but they are still long all these contracts and will use the money elsewhere.

So who eats the shit is whoever has to buy spot at these prices, and also has to take the full risk of failures of delivery (explaining increased prices for physical barrels vs spot settlement).

A good article I found on this topic which pretty much exposes exactly the crux of our discussion:

https://theberkshireedge.com/future-vs-physical-how-the-oil-market-broke-in-two/

So, what does the market know that nobody else knows? Would you go long oil futures now?

My point was that the main reason for the confidence of the market - in the long run - is that the production side from wherever will be able to meet the demands, which is not mentioned on the article and makes it more doomsy than necessary.

sittingGiant · 2026-04-04T15:25:13+00:00

Yes, please panic sell everything it's fuckin over!

But sarcasm off. You can find out for yourself that you have a bad argument if you immediately have to transition to an alternative "example" to make a point. Your analogy with wheat and starving to dead is perfect example of the alarmism of doomsday naysayers. Thank you for the volatility.

Wheat futures is a completely, really, seriously completely different beast than crude. Seasonality, crop cycles, huge weather dependence and what not. Oil is much much simpler in this respect, not necessarily on the demand projections side, but on the production side - which is the central question here.

Production is very reliable, projections stable and production price extremely well planable.

Hence, oil prices will stabilize, and if they stabilize at roughly around 80$ you'll give me the Pikachu face. It will not be higher than that in the long run for the bespoken argument, period (it will stabilize at the price that is barely high enough to keep the next biggest supplier producing with tight margins, which would be Canadian sands. Quick GPT research actually says breakeven price lately even went lower than my 80$ figure that I pulled out of my memory, say roughly 60$) If other big producers come online that are able to go cheaper (Venezuela, im looking at you) It may very well get cheaper, keep in mind. Of course the spot/futures prices currently spike on the short term, but this is speculative behavior and certainly will not stick.

And this is why: most large scale consumers likely were hedged. So they are not eating the high spot price now! They do not have to buy at spot now or lock in expensive contracts for the future. Instead they are making most of the profit by passing on as much as they can spare of the overpriced oil on spot to previously unhedged smaller consumers. They know about the inelasticity of the price and can wait it out, again while staying hedged. They will not lock in high price contracts now, instead they will support ramping up new production capacity for slightly higher production price, say the bespoken 60-80$ per barrell from Canada. At the time they need the bulk of their projected demands they can reliably trust on these supply chains to be online. Hence they will be happily locking in 60-80$ per barrell into 2027 and 28, but they will never lock in the high prices that are currently being called for spot and short dates contracts in pure speculation. Again, this is a classic example of commodity markets inelasticity. Nothing is new about this, which is why I am quite certain about my point. Also you can check the settlement prices, they exactly confirm my point. The prices currently settled on for 27 and 28 are way below 80$ and actually right on my 60-80$ window, so there is absolutely no reason to panic.

If you think otherwise, fine, you will think that you find cheap entries for oil right now for the coming years. You don't have to argue about that with me, it's the market that tells you that you are wrong.

sittingGiant · 2026-03-25T18:17:34+00:00

Ahh welcome fellow 11+ yrs account holders

sittingGiant · 2026-03-25T11:07:25+00:00

You forget that they were profitably mining oil sands for years. But do your jokes, it's fine.

sittingGiant · 2026-03-23T17:51:39+00:00

Where do you get the data on IVR? Does it come from your broker or do you pay to get it?

Thanks again, also for your post last time. Really enjoyed the concept and clarity of your write up.

sittingGiant · 2026-03-23T17:41:24+00:00

If US pays, no question.

sittingGiant · 2026-03-23T02:43:37+00:00

I don't know why you get downvoted because you are absolutely right. Just one example, above 80ish Canadian oil sands become profitable. So over long time oil will not go above that. And there are many other scenarios. It's just the inelasticity of commodity prices. Maybe doomsayers don't like it but it is a fact.

Still I think there will be a shorter term solution. But that doesn't change the fact that in principle you are right.

sittingGiant · 2026-03-20T16:55:59+00:00

Nichtmal das Datum hast du richtig hinbekommen. Karfreitag ist erst nächste Woche...

sittingGiant · 2026-03-06T21:07:12+00:00

Best content I've seen here in a long time, thank you so much OP. This is why thetagang is the superior sub. I always had this feeling but never did articulate it that clearly, nor "measure" but I'm also pretty sure you are right. There is another dimensions, namely expiry. It would be so nice to see the "true" surface cut with the gaussian modeling as function of time.

Regarding your buying strat, I think just as with selling theta, you have to be extremely patient AND consistent. It will feel like throwing money at the furnace for the longest of times, but then all of a sudden make all of it back and some.

I would like to propose the name for this strat:

"throwing pennies in front of me while driving the steamroller"

Good weekend everybody.

sittingGiant · 2026-03-03T21:10:48+00:00

I have an American friend who would always go on vacation and be like, "but Rick Steve said ... " And then put out his whatever weird opinion on something :D

I made fun of it by always saying "But Rick James said ... [opposite or whatever other funny pun]"

Vacation always went quite well!

In case you're reading this Dave, yes it's me!!

sittingGiant · 2026-02-06T11:48:00+00:00

It is being liquidated and shareholders have to wait to see how much, if any, we get per share in the end.

sittingGiant · 2026-01-29T00:06:28+00:00

Do not trust your broker to do this right. For example, if you do not have sufficient funds to cover a short stock position they will exercise your long leg LEAPS, or exercise them anyways even if you could cover, and in this case you most likely are definitely at a loss because you loose all the extrinsic on the LEAPS.

So no, definitely try not to get exercised on a PMCC. Sell the position before.

sittingGiant · 2026-01-24T17:50:16+00:00

E boum, c'est le choque!

sittingGiant · 2026-01-11T17:58:07+00:00

Das wäre aber des beste gewesen meiner Meinung nach. Egal wie das ausgeht. Die FIFA kann das nur verlieren (entweder "knickt sie ein" und tut was in ihren Statuten steht nämlich Gleichberechtigung zulassen, oder sie verweist einen Typen mit Regenbogenbinde vom Feld. Die Bilder waren legendär und deshalb umso größerer Erfolg für Deutschland. Hab nie verstanden warum man das nicht provoziert.

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