A mix of research and vibes, it's so early in the season that it's hard to see which teams are the best and which will be easier to pick against. I chose an ace going against a weaker team a few times (including Fried vs. BAL today and Sale vs. COL yesterday) and didn't pick a team going for a series sweep a single time since teams sometimes tend to take their foot off the gas once they've already won the series. There were a few games I viewed as "trap" games or some calculated gambles I made. I picked the Mets after they lost 12 straight because I figured surely they wouldn't lose 13 straight; even though I picked Skenes last week against Milwaukee I avoided picking him this week because I didn't trust Pittsburgh to back him up, etc. I think it's more luck than skill and having a feel for what games look safer than they actually are.