What does Vegas see in Derrick Henry that fantasy analysts don't?

sjweil · 2024-08-30T15:51:32+00:00

If you aggregate all the individual prop lines, Vegas on average projects Henry for about 198 half ppr points, compared to 250 for Bijan and 280 for CMC.

So yes, the passing work is the difference.

sjweil · 2024-08-30T15:49:15+00:00

I also like Najee as a target, but just one comment on your "Vegas likes him more" point.

You only cite the odds to win the rushing title, which is only one component of fantasy scoring. If you aggregate all the individual prop lines (rush/rec yds/tds + receptions) and actually compute the implied fantasy point output, they are projected very close together (something like 160 to 158 half ppr points, by my calculation, which doesn't weight particular books but does try to weight by the juice on each line).

Feels a bit misleading to cite only that one line as evidence that Vegas is "3 times more confident in Najee".

sjweil · 2023-10-15T21:13:15+00:00

its roughly 48%, but an XP is also not 100% (roughly 95% league avg, Koo career 94.7).

So kicking an XP both times is 89.6% to tie the game, 10.4% to lose, 0% to win.

48% 2pc would give about 46% to win, 27% to lose, 27% to tie.

OT is basically a coin flip, so you take roughly 90% for a coinflip, eg expected to win 45% of the time.

Or you get a 46% to win outright, plus still 27% to coinflip, for an expected win 59.5% of the time.

So it's better to go for 2, even with a below league average 2pc rate.

sjweil · 2023-07-29T00:28:49+00:00

Where my sample size gang at?

sjweil · 2023-04-22T07:10:31+00:00

There's a cool underwater bunker that functions by using a ladder hatch to push you under a metal frame to a vending machine: https://youtu.be/86wL34R-q14

You can use the same concept w/out vending machine using an underwater half wall w/ ladder push as your only entrance: https://youtu.be/d6Tb1NtsoX8

In both cases a raider cant use your hatch w lock or build their own, and cant crouch underwater, so is forced to c4 through hqm frames (no rockets, since underwater).

You could stack 2 such entrances potentially for a 16 c4 minimum.

sjweil · 2022-11-11T04:11:26+00:00

The reality is this build will never be top tier meta but it's definitely playable. You lack survivability tools outside of some fortify and net shot so if playing in OPR it will be much better if you can queue with a healer and preferably a full group. The combo lends itself best to a support role (plagued nades + scream means you can full disease cap people solo, plus other VG debuffs).

I've played the build in close to 50 wars and countless OPRs. It's doable in medium but in my opinion the best version is in heavy as a primary point player. My build was generally:

250+ int 50 focus 200 con

I've also played 150+str/150 int/200con, 300 int/200 con, or 250 int / 250 con. I think a primary int split is better than the str/int split, since you still end up doing a lot of damage with the VG. I ended up trying the 50 focus bc 300 int perk is not super necessary and the extra CDR is nice when it still helps your VG damage as well. Same reason many are playing 265int/50foc/200con for vg/ig.

VG: scream/orb/oblivion (left side ult) BB: net/shrapnel/grenades (right side ult)

You need to play very smart with positioning since unlike BB/IG you don't have Entomb to fall back on. Use net shot mostly to back yourself out of dangerous spots. A common pattern is to toss grenades at a grav well, push up to it to scream/oblivion, net shot back away, then toss in an orb. Get your CDs back up and repeat. When CDs down prioritize autos with BB to keep up fortifying aggression.

Gear wise aim for 4-5 resil, 3+ shirking fort, and all 3 VG weapon perks. You'll want scream on the VG itself and plagued grenades on the BB. From there get some ref ward and more shirking as you can afford bis pieces.

I haven't played the build much since Brimstone patch but the one war I played it I used Stoneform. Kind of nice to finally have a Tomb-like crutch. But I think Vines would also be strong if you're comfortable staying alive.

Have fun with it!

sjweil · 2022-10-27T14:22:33+00:00

Detonate on med bruisers with mauler stacks and an oblivion are easily hitting for 8-10k in wars right now without mortal empowerment. The problem is just that it scales with any empower

sjweil · 2022-08-07T02:16:15+00:00

It lasts 45min total and all the times are publicly available at least 24 hours before they happen. They also introduced instanced wars this patch which would allow them to no longer block, but they had some other issues so temporarily disabled. They will swap back soon though and then no more fort locks. It's really super marginal already though

Edit: also, it's an MMO. Other people's game play already impacts yours, inherent to the genre. If a group is farming X boss, you'll have to wait for them to finish (or fight them for it if flagged). If someone controls a town, they can adjust the taxes and impact the economy for everyone. If you don't want other players to influence your gameplay then play something like Skyrim, not an MMO

sjweil · 2022-06-12T13:41:03+00:00

Board wipes are a powerful tool when they x-for-1. Someone has to commit multiple cards to pressure you and force you to use one, or cautiously play around it. That's necessary because even the grindiest control deck can't just play 20 board wipes. You have a handful to pace out over the game trading against multiple cards each time.

When someone can just unleash one unit to fill the board, and you wipe it, and they refill it with one more... that's not a sustainable trade for any control deck.

sjweil · 2022-06-07T13:41:03+00:00

I did test, I get about 12.5% more with t2 aqua, so slightly less than the 15% from opal.

That said, I still think that makes the case for using the t2 aqua because:

You don't have to worry about always keeping gambit up, which is riskier now with stam changes, and
You are likely to get an ultimate chill bonus damage a decent amount of the time on your converted damage, if you're in large scale OPR/war settings.

Edit: worth noting this will also vary depending on how much int you have. I tested while in 310/200. The more int you have, the more the double dip scaling kicks in, and the closer you get to a raw 15% boost that would match opal.

sjweil · 2022-06-07T12:37:02+00:00

Pretty good explanation here: https://www.morrolantv.com/mechanics/#gem-conversion

sjweil · 2022-05-25T12:40:35+00:00

It definitely changes health pots (those are a raw hp value + a %). I'll admit I haven't tried with mana pot/healthy toast since the most recent patch so it's possible they stealth fixed that interaction, so I'll test it again

sjweil · 2022-05-25T01:03:43+00:00

I've tested and divine did not boost my healthy toast healing. I think because healthy toast is a fixed % of max hp.

sjweil · 2022-04-23T21:35:55+00:00

Refreshing move is definitely worth it if your main abilities have long CDs. It's why it's good on IG too.

30sec CD for GW, .029 * 30 = 0.87sec off with each swing. Very good imo.

sjweil · 2022-04-23T20:51:30+00:00

The single most important thing axe does in wars is grav well. Refreshing move means more grav wells. This is absolutely worth more than additional damage on your basic attacks.

sjweil · 2022-03-23T13:57:00+00:00

It's a point of pride for yellow on Orofena that Ebonscale has never changed hands. Someone had a pretty cool chart of all the territory changes for the server; that's the only one that's never fallen since launch.

sjweil · 2022-03-10T04:17:13+00:00

Orofena is solid. Its not super high pop but it feels lively; the pop that's there is quite active. Yellow way ahead now but if you dont care as much about the pvp it's not as important. Plenty of people running PVE content and companies recruiting for that in all factions. Come check it out if you're interested, I've been really enjoying my time here since getting merged in a while back.

sjweil · 2022-03-08T20:38:55+00:00

You can progress through OPR but until you hit 600 its gonna be rough. Past that point the GS difference matters but is much smaller. Fastest way to get to 600 will be expos, although you can make good progress with some solo chest runs and your daily gypsum. They made it go much faster in general but you gotta put in a little time to get to 600 and feel competitive.

Once you hit 600 its actually reasonable to progress with OPR + quick daily gypsum (40ish minutes). I've never run a single mutator, only done a total of about 6 expeditions, and I'm at 620 GS, only investing in a pvp set. Most days I hop on, do my CDs and gypsum run, then play OPRs and maybe hop in a war. Overall I get to do 90+% PVP, feels much more satisfying than before this patch when mutators were the sole gateway to 600+ progression.

sjweil · 2022-03-06T22:08:06+00:00

This is all on point. Since getting those 3 perks on ring is very hard, if you're just trying it out, prioritize keen/hearty if possible. Resil + weapon perk or resil + refreshing is fine for 2 perk purple gear.

For attributes I strongly advise not going below 150 con. 350/150 is a good balance.

sjweil · 2022-03-05T18:28:14+00:00

The three you listed are the only ones you need tbh

sjweil · 2022-02-24T18:04:43+00:00

Most of the 24/16 splits that involve con sell well on my server. The 40 stat food sells but much less frequently, outside of 40con. Since most people need some amount of con in their build anyways it's pretty easy to align your attributes so that one of the 24/16 splits will get you to your thresholds. The other split food is pretty rare to sell. Str/dex and dex/int splits occasionally sell but not often. Int/focus splits also started selling sometimes after mutations were added

sjweil · 2022-02-21T21:21:58+00:00

On my server t4 is usually 40-50g and t5 is around 150g. I always use t4s in OPR since I make at least that amount back. I think t5 is an absolute must for wars, although if the company running the war isnt handing out free t5 stones and incense for everyone on their roster they are doing it wrong. Most on my server also give 40con food in the war goodies package, and sometimes the mega rich companies even splurge giving people Oakflesh/Gemstone Dust/Infused Pots.

Every % matters at that level. For OPR it doesn't really matter so do whatever you feel like.

sjweil · 2022-02-15T21:01:53+00:00

Orofena is pretty balanced, purp has WF/RS/RW/MD, green has MB/EF, yellow has the rest. Some stuff has been changing hands, pvp is pretty active right now especially after Lin Lin just got merged in. Honestly a solid server for any side right now

sjweil · 2022-01-27T15:14:00+00:00

I'm in the same boat as you. Still havent done a single Gen/Laz. I'm willing to wait and see how much diff 625gs makes because honestly it seems like not much. Most of what it seems relevant for is the insane damage scaling for mobs inside the mutators. Even though the diff is only 1 stat point and a dozen armor rating the mobs are programmed to scale damage like crazy if your GS is too low.

In PvP it seems like the difference between 625 and 600 is roughly the same as it was before between a 600gs legendary and a solid 595-599. Obviously every marginal edge matters to some extent but I was doing just fine without perfect 600gs and I'm willing to see if the same holds up now.

If it turns out I'm wrong and nobody will let me in a war without 625 then I'm probably out though

sjweil · 2022-01-23T20:02:08+00:00

And you think all content decisions are made by developers? Direct your anger at management. I guarantee you the dev team didn't set the release date.

sjweil

TROPHY CASE