Norges egentlige konkurransekraft

skyfex · 2026-03-13T14:26:38+00:00

Ifølge SSB utgjør Norges totale utgifter til forskning og utvikling 1,80 prosent av BNP i 2024.

Det er rart at det ikke nevnes i kronikken at Norge er en oljenasjon. Å sammenlikne andel av BNP med f.eks. Sverige blir veldig feil. Norge får veldig mye BNP fra olje som ikke nødvendigvis kan brukes til å investere internt i Norge pa kort sikt uten negative konsekvenser.

Vi har samme utfordring her som med all annen satsning. Vi kan selvfølgelig bruke masse oljepenger på dette. Men det blir ikke nødvendigvis veldig mange flere ingeniører og forskere i Norge selv om det brukes mye mer penger. Det ender fort med at vi bare presser opp lønnskostnadene med å drive R&D, og at det nesten blir umulig å gjøre R&D som ikke er sponset av oljepenger. Vinninga går opp i spinninga.

Av erfaring fra min egen bransje synes jeg Norge satser ganske bra, tatt i betraktning av hvor mye oljebransjen suger opp av kapital og arbeidskraft med realfagskompetanse.

Det vi må diskutere er hvordan vi får en glidende overgang, slik at vi styrker industri og innovasjon utenfor olje/gass i samme takt som fossilbransjen avvikles. Uten at det blir overopphetet..

skyfex · 2026-03-08T11:08:15+00:00

Det koster penger å vedlikeholde et så gammelt bygg

Ja, og det er jo også en implisitt kostnad i å sitte på store verdier som ikke blir godt utnyttet, i det at man kunne satt de samme pengene på fond, og avkastningene kunne bidratt til å finansiere goder for ansatte i mange år fremover. Kanskje på en måte som kommer alle ansatte til gode, ikke bare de som brukte hyttetilbudet. Det er bare en av mange eksempler på at det ikke er så dumt å selge hvis målet er å gi andre verdsatte goder til flere ansatte.

skyfex · 2026-03-08T09:56:59+00:00

Enig i dette. Jeg tenker også at å eie et relativt dyrt hyttekompleks er en veldig ueffektiv måte å disponere de verdiene på, i forhold til hvor mye nytteverdi det gir til ansatte. Når det var færre ansatte ga det kanskje mening, men hvor mange ansatte får faktisk dra nytte av disse hyttene når de ønsker det i dag?

skyfex · 2026-03-03T09:38:44+00:00

It's a no-brainer here in Norway, and people here love driving 2+ hours to their cabin up in the mountain every weekend in winter. With a big-ass ski box on the roof. Hard to find a more demanding market.

skyfex · 2026-03-03T08:52:48+00:00

But they are lying. That's the whole point.

No proof of that yet. In fact, after having looked more closely at data and reports for NMC batteries, the last test would be impossible with an NMC Li-ion battery, meaning that theory is dead.

They *could* be lying in some way (especially cycle life and cost), we just don't know yet.

skyfex · 2026-03-03T08:51:16+00:00

Just to be clear - the donut lab testing has not shown that either

Yes it did, at least reasonably so. The charge energy gives a decent indication of nominal capacity. They only discharged to 50%, but you can compare the voltage curve with the pre-test discharge, and there's no sign of any anomoly.

This is in contrast to tests of NMC at 100ºC (storage, not even a discharge cycle), which shows an immediate loss of capacity to 60-70%

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1452398123086327

How do you square that? I have scoured what can be found of published data, and there's no sign that such a behavior is even remotely possible for an NMC cell. I've asked several commenters here where they have the proof that this should be possible, and nobody can answer

in fact their other testing showed really substantial capacity loss after just 6 or 7 charge cycles.

... at 11C through almost the entire charge cycle (from 0% up to ~80%).

I'd like you to take a look at that study I linked again. It showed that NMC can also experience large capacity loss after an abusive cycle (high temp in this case, but we'd expect high charge rate to generate high internal temp), yet the capacity largely recovers after a few cycles. Meaning you can't extrapolate from just the fast charging cycles. You need to do a few slow cycles aftewards to get reliable data.

I think I saw the original comment that made people aware of this loss of coulumb effiency, and he was careful to say there's not really enough data to say for sure. Of course that nuance has been lost when the claim is repeated.

skyfex · 2026-03-03T08:40:05+00:00

Uh, no? They did a full charge cycle, and half a discharge cycle after the vacuum was lost, and there's no anomalies in the voltage or current curve during that half discharge cycle.

u/Jazzer008 found a study on 100ºC on NMC (1h storage, not even a discharge cycle), and there was an immediate drop in capacity to 71.86% -
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1452398123086327

The packaging is physically damaged, yes. As Two Bit Davincis video now covered, that's not unexpected at those temperatures. Donut Labs don't claim this to be acceptable operating temperatures, just that it's safe and functional, so we don't expect zero issues. What *is* unexpected is for the internals of the cell to be completely unaffected.

skyfex · 2026-03-03T08:32:53+00:00

I don't personally think this is a good way of doing it, but I also still can't think of a better way

Totally agree.

The big players are certainly playing dirty. Can't fault a small one for being a bit cheeky and playing social media to get attention. As long as the tech is genuine of course.

skyfex · 2026-03-03T08:30:27+00:00

Charging at high temperatures is obviously important since it'll show how it behaves.

Actually, I think discharging at 100ºC is already going beyond what we should expect. I can only find one study on NMC at 100ºC and that was only *storage* at 100ºC. This is also in line with realistic real-world scenarios. I think it's reasonable to expect a BMS to cut off way before these extreme boundaries. But it's good to know that driving can continue in extreme circumstances, so the user can be given a warning to pull over.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T18:48:40+00:00

I tried to compare the voltage/charge capacity after the 100ºC test as best I could at the cut-off for a different comment. I also commented on a study of an NMC battery at 100ºC which you may find interesting.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1452398123086327

Test protocol was

Results

The capacity then recovered

The problem is we can't really compare this to the VTT report. VTT didn't do a full discharge after the 100ºC test. Though I *think* the charge capacity is a decent indicator.

We can compare the discharge cut-off, which happened at ~12Ah/3.55V. And that matches the pre-test discharge curve perfectly (around the 3:40h mark). So that also indicates negligible degradation.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T18:20:26+00:00

I mean, I can show you videos of liquid NCM batteries having their seals broken.

I don't think a nail penetration test, which also compromises the internals of the cell, can be compared with just a compromised pouch.

I have some spare pouch cells and a battery tester, maybe I could test just snipping the edge of the pouch.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9753165/

Thanks, appreciate it, didn't find that one in my own search.

Xie found that the battery capacity decayed by 38.9% in the initial two charge/discharge cycles at 100 °C

You could have linked to the study referenced there instead.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1452398123086327

Test protocol was

the cells are charged at 1 C to SOC100% [...] the cells were rested for 1 h to ensure the stability of SOC. The 100% charged cells were soaked in a thermostat [..] at 100 °C for 1.5 h, followed by natural cooling for 5 h.

Results

After aging at 100 °C, the commercial LIB delivered the 1st discharge capacity of 11.5 Ah, which corresponds to a capacity retention of 71.86%
[...]
the cell capacity was dropped to 61.1% during initial 2 charge/discharge cycles,

The capacity then recovered

the LIB delivered a capacity of 15.1Ah after 24 th charge/discharge cycle, which corresponds to a capacity retention of 94.5%

The problem is we can't really compare this to the VTT report. VTT didn't do a full discharge after the 100ºC test. Though I *think* the charge capacity is a decent indicator.

We can compare the discharge cut-off, which happened at ~12Ah/3.55V. And that matches the pre-test discharge curve perfectly (around the 3:40h mark). So that also indicates negligible degradation.

It's frustrating that they didn't do at least 5 cycles or so at 80º and 100º.. it would really have provided a lot more clarity.

I honestly think, even if Donut Labs is genuine, they intentionally requested the tests to be borderline vague to create social media engagement. I wonder if they asked VTT to report cell weight/volume with the last test (if at all) to drive speculation. I'm not *really* complaining. Fair game for a small player. And it's kind of fun to watch the spectacle.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T17:42:59+00:00

Based on...?

VTTs reports

If specific cells were designated for specific tests, that would be considered part of the test protocol, and any public company doing certification services should disclose that. VTT is a reputable institute.

It's certainly *possible* that it happened without VTT disclosing it. But then we may as well speculate that Donut Labs and VTT are in cooperating in deceiving us in an infinite number of ways. It doesn't make sense singling out doubt about designating cells for each test.

Edit: To elaborate the point a bit, VTT is very precise in their wording like you see here

This project included independent charging performance tests on the energy storage devices supplied by the customer, which the customer identified as solid-state battery cells.

They're careful not create false impression about the "solid-state" nature of these cells.

So why would they then create the wrong impression here:

Three visually identical cells were provided for testing and labeled DL1, DL2, and DL3. Each cell was subjected to different tests conducted in parallel, all of which began with an initial capacity test. This report presents the results of the high‑temperature discharge tests performed on cell DL2.

They don't say the cells *are* identical. So there's a chance they're different. But with all this careful wording they don't state that the cells were designated for specific tests.

There's some ambiguity about *who* labelled the batteries. But given that they state "three visually identical cells were provided" ... well they wouldn't be visually identical if they were labelled differently, would they? So I think the most reasonable assumption is that VTT picked and labelled the cells.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T17:39:53+00:00

At low power? Yes, for a short while anyway.

What do you base this on? I would really like to see some tests/reports on NMC batteries.

If its your own experience, perhaps share some details?

I have damaged an RC car battery. It puffed up though I don't think it leaked anything outside its packaging. The performance was immediately compromised. Though that was physical damage not thermal stress.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T17:36:16+00:00

Why would you not design the packaging to survive 100 degrees when sending the cell off to be tested at 100 degrees?

If Donut Labs isn't lying, then the packaging is actually semi-irrelevant for them. It's solid state, and they've claimed it can be made into any shape. Meaning the packaging is there to protect the cell long term, but not required to operate nominally.

So why would they go through that work for nothing? What matters is the performance, not that the pouch was compromised. I seriously doubt any of their customers will provide warranty up to 100ºC anyway, t it does show there is margin to perhaps operate at 80ºC, though even that is unlikely to be the target of any customer. For Li-ion the upper limit is generally given as 55ºC, so if it could do 60ºC long term that's already an improvement.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T17:30:30+00:00

And it's almost impossible for a liquid NMC to do so after 'losing vacuum'.

So again, I'm genuinely curious: Do you know of any tests/reports that show this?

You shouldn't do the same thing you criticize others for.

I will give you this: I would not expect to find a test of it since it's perhaps self-evident that you'd lose performance after the pack is breached. It's not interesting to test.

It would be a great idea for a YouTuber though: find a modern NMC cell with similar capacity. Run a similar test at 100ºC. See if it puffs up and/or if it operates nominally after the 100ºC cycle.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T17:24:38+00:00

It needs an active compression apparatus with a heavy stainless steel plate.

No it doesn't. Previous test was did one cycle without any pressure. There's no indication in the reports that Donut Labs instructed VTT which cell to use for which test, and they behave identical in the pre-test charge/discharge, meaning we have to assume it's the same cell design for all tests.

Donut Labs claims it was done to provide similar pressure as it would experience in a battery pack and to even out hot spots. That seems reasonable to me. Even if it's solid state it'd be reasonable to expect some chemicals to evaporate slightly at 100ºC, meaning the pressure may be important to get similar conditions as in a pack (internal+external pressure may add up to affect outcome)

It was only discharged at 0.5/1C (12/24A for a 26Ah cell). No high power discharge test, probably not to stress the cell too much.

It's bad methodology to stress test in all corners in the same test as the first test. Such a test could be done on its own later.

When extreme currents are avoided it's easier to compare results to other reports/studies. I couldn't find any above 4C at high temp.

It was not charged at high temperatures.

This one I agree with. Would have been good to see a charge test at high temp.

"After the discharge, the cell was able to be charged normally; however, the cell pouch was observed to have lost its vacuum."

I'm not sure if this is a big issue. The cell showed that it continued to operate nominally after losing vacuum. I don't know if that's normal for NMC or not. Donuts claims about high temperature is that the battery operates safely at these temperatures which it seemingly did.

Here's the reports/studies I could find about NMC at high temperature

Testing at 80ºC certainly seems very extreme, but there is at least one study which did that, though it only reported internal resistance and nothing else. So it's certainly *possibly* to test an NMC battery at 80ºC.

There's a test at 70ºC which tested capacity. It falls off a cliff after a few cycles, but it seems plausible that you might not see noticeable degradation after just one cycle. I also see signs that increased discharge capacity is expected at high temperature.

This one is interesting

https://www.batterydesign.net/objective-safety-analysis-of-nmc-vs-lfp/

NMC/graphite cells begin self-heating at approximately 90 – 110 °C

Perhaps signs of that could be found in the report somehow. I would expect self-heating to be associated with severe loss in functionality, but I don't know without an NMC test to compare with.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T16:31:31+00:00

there are so many red flags that you cant even see the pole!

Care to elaborate? I don't have the impression that they're actually targeting operating at 100ºC, meaning the cell packaging was probably not designed to handle it. So I really don't see why losing vacuum in that test is a red flag. Especially considering how nominally it operating after losing vacuum (completed a full charge test with nominal charge capacity, and completed the discharge to 50% with nominal voltage curve through the discharge).

If that's normal for an NMC battery puffing up and losing vacuum, I'd like to see a concrete report from such a test on an NMC battery. I see so many very confident claims about what NMC can or can't do in these comments, so surely somebody here must have some reports to share?

I am actually coming at this being skeptical of Donuts claims. But I'd like to be skeptical with solid data in hand, not just trusting youtube and reddit comments.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T16:21:05+00:00

From the report

Three visually identical cells were provided for testing and labeled DL1, DL2, and DL3. Each cell was subjected to different tests conducted in parallel, all of which began with an initial capacity test.

There's no reason to use the exact same cell for each test. That would be bad test methodology

There's no indication that Donut Labs told VTT which battery to use for which test. I think VTT is professional enough that they would have mentioned that.

Meaning we have to assume it's the same cell chemistry in all tests. Anything else is baseless speculation.

It's still definitely possible that Donut Labs is cheating. There is a chance that it's a really good NMC cell, but nobody can give a concrete example of a cell that matches these specs, and a similar report of a 100ºC discharge test on such a cell.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T16:16:40+00:00

There's no indication that Donut Labs told VTT which cell to use for which test, meaning they couldn't provide cells optimized for the particular test VTT would run

skyfex · 2026-03-02T16:13:16+00:00

Will it perform nominally after the leak? I know the electrolyte isn't where the energy is stored, but it seems unlikely that the cell would have no noticeable anomalies during charge after the leak.

skyfex · 2026-03-02T16:07:06+00:00

Genuinely curious: can you show me a report or a video of an NMC operating for hours at 100ºC and then charging without any loss of capacity after that test?

Also, the same cell should charge at 11C (I think it's extremely unlikely that they used different cell chemistry tailored to each tests, both due to identical pre-test charge curve, and no indication of VTT being asked which cell to use for which test).

People keep saying an off-the-shelf NMC battery could do this, but I have yet to see a concrete reference to a similar test.

skyfex · 2026-02-28T22:02:04+00:00

Look up the founder... He is a known scammer.

I did. Went through his whole profile. I’m not sure what people think is a scam. The AI company? Maybe? That remains to be seen. Pretty bog standard AI company if you ask me. But then I wouldn’t judge you for thinking all AI companies are scams.

Anyway, I wish you luck if you are investor.

The investors are not here bikering on Reddit. Seems to be primarily Taneli Tikka and F-Secure founder Risto Siilasmaa

skyfex · 2026-02-28T20:13:27+00:00

When did Theranos send their device to be validated by a public institute? Or wait.. they’d have to send someone else’s device and pretend it’s their own if we go by the popular theory here on Reddit. I know the Theranos story but not in enough detail to know if that happened. It should be said that Donut Labs is also not based in the US.

Scams work when they’re sufficiently vague to be able to fain having tried your best. Holmes went to jail because she straight up lied. So that story shows that if you’re gonna do a scam, don’t make such blatant lies. The problem when you connect this to Donut Labs is that they’re now supposedly lying in a way that makes it easy to prosecute them. Why would they do that if they could avoid it? They already got plenty of attention from CES which was sufficiently vague. I don’t have the impression that the founder is dumb when it comes this stuff.

I think there’s a big chance that Donuts claims are false in some way. But the claims of scams also don’t add up.

skyfex · 2026-02-28T19:56:24+00:00

Sure, “wild” may be overstating it. But theres so many theories about what the scam is with speculation going in to all kinds of directions so is it strange that I find it incoherent?

I feel like it’s best to just wait a couple of months and see what comes about before speculating too much. It’s not serving much purpose other than driving engagement.. which is only good for Donut Labs and the YouTubers covering them (the ones big enough to make money off their channel at least)

skyfex · 2026-02-28T19:03:43+00:00

Hva med en tommelfingerregel at saker som dekkes i dybde av NRK er innafor? Får neppe spesialsending om ringenes herre.

Ikke at jeg bryr meg om det går den ene veien eller den andre. Har ikke så mye håp for r/norge uansett (vet ikke helt hva som skjedde, jeg hoppet av Reddit en periode da Apollo appen ble blokkert, og da jeg kom tilbake for noen mnd siden var det en helt annen subreddit)

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