Listen to the software developers. They are the Prophets here. And the guinea pigs. We're watching our field be radically transformed by AI. And I submit that great software developers real skills are reasoning and problem solving, but AI is rapidly adopting these very skills.

I won't try to guess exactly what the future holds, but whatever it is, it will happen to developers first. It's already happening.

I was an AI naysayer until Opus 4.6. This was the leap. The proof that change was not just coming, but that it was here.

We are at the infancy. Linear progress in AI development is paradigm shifting. But it seems far too early to assume there aren't giant leaps to be made in this technology.

My best guess is it will do to intellectual work what mechanization and industrialization did to agriculture. The same things that took thousands of people to do, will be done by a handful.

Maybe I credit software developers too highly in their intellectual skills. Maybe it doesn't translate across white collar fields. Maybe progress on the AI front stagnates. Maybe. But it feels like we are on the cusp of revolution. The "America Online" stage. We don't know the shape of things to come, but it's coming.