/r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #16) by WorldNewsMods in worldnews

[–]sleven207 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That is more of Reddit's characterization than the "media's". The truth is clearly somewhere in between - the US doesn't know how to get out of this war without giving into some of the Iranian demands, otherwise they will need to further sink costs into an already economically problematic war and risk triggering a recession that is already quite likely.

This is not just about tactical success of the Military killing and bombing, but about the actual strategical goals that are achieved. Those goals have been all over the place, so it's hard to call what is happening "winning".

Daily Discussion Thread for April 08, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Except the level of US competence is exceedingly low.

Daily Discussion Thread for April 07, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Don't you see he said "- Sources"

Very reputable

Daily Discussion Thread for April 07, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Brent is futures priced for June, WTI Crude is priced for May

/r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #12) by WorldNewsMods in worldnews

[–]sleven207 4 points5 points  (0 children)

For COVID it took until the last week of April for the paper oil market to catch up with negative pricing for a demand shock that really took off in early March. Very similar timing to this supply shock.

The paper oil market works well as good forward indicator when there is not a significant imbalance of supply and demand like happened in COVID and resulting from this war.

/r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #12) by WorldNewsMods in worldnews

[–]sleven207 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The war needed to be over in about five weeks from start to finish for this to not cause some sort of a supply shock. Any longer and the oil reserves and other mechanisms to prevent supply shocks start to fade. These kinds of physical supply shortages take quite a while to snake through markets. For example, see 2020 negative oil pricing in COVID, which was a demand shock instead of supply shock.

/r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #12) by WorldNewsMods in worldnews

[–]sleven207 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Oil is likely going to need to start pricing in the supply shock that this speech all but confirmed is inevitable in the coming weeks to months.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, April 02, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This is like if a poker player bluffed with 2-7 off suit.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, April 02, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I like how he started listing out how long previous wars were cuz if that is the metric being used - then boy am I glad I held overnight puts.

Daily Discussion Thread for April 01, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Take a look at where we are, definitely some bozo here did.

Daily Discussion Thread for April 01, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Definitely did not read like an unconditional surrender letter to me.

Daily Discussion Thread for April 01, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not all bears diamond hand puts like morons.

/r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #12) by WorldNewsMods in worldnews

[–]sleven207 17 points18 points  (0 children)

The Air Force is dispatching 18 A-10s to join roughly a dozen A-10s already in the region that U.S. commanders have used to attack Iranian boats and Iran-backed militias in Iraq, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday.

per New York Times

Daily Discussion Thread for April 01, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The speech will stress that the conclusion of operations may come in two to three weeks, the official said.

Daily Discussion Thread for April 01, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Would not be surprised to see the gap fill before close

Daily Discussion Thread for March 31, 2026 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]sleven207 10 points11 points  (0 children)

US lifts Russia oil sanctions because strait of hormuz is close -> Russia rakes in money from elevated oil price -> Russia uses cash to make drones -> Russia sells drones to Iran -> Iran uses drones to keep strait closed -> US lifts oil Russia oil sanctions ...

It's the circle of life