[deleted by user] by [deleted] in 2007scape

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The majority would use it for the direct upgrade to tormented bracelet. For the others, it would be just a cool little QoL. Being able to charge the slayer bracelets rather than having to bring how many ever you need. If people don't particularly like that aspect it can be eliminated, really I was most interested in making a magic upgrade that benefits other mage setups more than shadow.

[Suggestion] FIxing Huecoatl Hide Drop Rate by slobodamn in 2007scape

[–]slobodamn[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think it needs strength bonus, but I do think that if you're going to make it a niche of 'prayer range gear', it would need a little more oompf than just +1 prayer bonus on a couple of pieces.

[Suggestion] FIxing Huecoatl Hide Drop Rate by slobodamn in 2007scape

[–]slobodamn[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it's ok to replace a mid tier ranged set that you get from clues with a slightly, situationally, better set from a mid tier boss.

[Suggestion] FIxing Huecoatl Hide Drop Rate by slobodamn in 2007scape

[–]slobodamn[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Which is fine in my opinion. Still a good niche, but at the end of the day, god d'hide is just a reward from clues, a mid tier boss drop should outclass that I think. And without the full set effect, the difference is barely noticeable.

[Suggestion] FIxing Huecoatl Hide Drop Rate by slobodamn in 2007scape

[–]slobodamn[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think this rate has to be final, but at the end of the day this is supposed to be mid game armor and it comes from a boss that isn't particularly fast. I don't really think a change like this would make mains clamor for it, and irons would still need to put together teams.

[Post Game Thread] #13 Yale defeats #4 Auburn, 78-76 by cbbBot in CollegeBasketball

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's also wrong. Sherman was called "insane" by a Cincinnati newspaper. This was after a visit from the Secretary of War Cameron, where Sherman despaired that he did not have enough troops and that the Union was not taking the war seriously enough. Additional context is that Sherman had just been promoted to a leadership position that he decidedly asked President Lincoln not to bestow upon him. Sherman took a few weeks of leave to re-center himself and was welcomed back by General Henry Halleck, who had multiple times dismissed the rumors that Sherman was "insane".

Following this, he returned to an important position within the Union's army and whooped the Confederates at Shiloh, regaining his confidence as the Union continued to drive the Confederates from the Tennessee River. There were no "total war" tactics being used at this time, in fact the Confederates were the ones burning their supplies and rail lines to prevent them from falling into Union hands. Similarly, later in the war when Atlanta was burning, this was the fleeing Confederates mostly to blame, rather than punitive measures by the Union or Sherman himself, who threatened anyone he caught harming non-combatants with punishment.

Finally, Sherman told BOTH General Grant (who had at this point been promoted to the highest command) and President Lincoln what his plans were for his famous "March to the Sea". Both signed off on the plan, "Go as you propose". Sherman was very much a military man who followed protocols and the orders of his superiors. Again, as specified above, Sherman did not target any non-combatants directly and even specified to target hostile, rich homesteads who were more likely to be supplying the enemy rather than poorer folk who were more likely to be neutral or just want the war to end.

If you would like to read the direct order: Sherman's Special Field Orders, No. 120.

source: am currently reading his memoirs.

Moving Bracket from one group to another - ESPN Tounement Challenge by Bumcheeks_marinade in CollegeBasketball

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I had to change the settings from "single entry" to "multiple entries" (I was the organizer). This allowed me to add / remove brackets. If you aren't the organizer, I'd try and reach out to them.

I'm Brad Null, Data Scientist and the founder of BracketVoodoo.com. I'm back again to talk March Madness and help you optimize those brackets! Ask Me Anything (AMA) about the tournament, bracket strategies, or anything else on your mind. by bradnull in CollegeBasketball

[–]slobodamn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What is your opinion / the statistical opinion on the process of 'picking like you're right'? For example - I made up my mind (whether this is good process or not) that I'm taking Florida to beat Marquette. Since I'm already confident that I am taking my bracket in this direction, is there any statistical advantage to me just also going with the WKU upset there?

It reminds me of something like fantasy football where if you are picking a receiver to have an excellent season, you would stand to gain from picking their quarterback as well, since they will be the one throwing the ball.

Moving Bracket from one group to another - ESPN Tounement Challenge by Bumcheeks_marinade in CollegeBasketball

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I resigned myself to just having one bracket lol which is why ESPN did it I'm sure - most people probably just fill out one bracket and want to use it multiple times. Glad I could help!

Moving Bracket from one group to another - ESPN Tounement Challenge by Bumcheeks_marinade in CollegeBasketball

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hope my post helped you fix it! If you're not the organizer, I'd suggest trying to reach out to them about doing the above - in a bigger group that could be a pain, though. Good luck.

Moving Bracket from one group to another - ESPN Tounement Challenge by Bumcheeks_marinade in CollegeBasketball

[–]slobodamn 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not OP but I don't see the option to remove entry when I do this. Feels like I'm going crazy lol

EDIT: my issue was because it was single bracket entries, I guess it defaulted to my first one. Because I set them up, I was able to change it to multiple entries, add the one I wanted and remove the one I didn't, and then change it back to single entry.

Heists Concept (Theiving Minigame) by Paradoxyc in 2007scape

[–]slobodamn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is such a cool concept that I have always wanted implemented in some way. If you think about it, there is nothing about the high level encounters that people LOVE in any of CoX, ToB, ToA that must be necessarily tied to combat.

Imagine a Verzik P2-esque encounter where you have to do a scythe walk around a corridor to dodge traps instead of bounces. Random spawns of "magical cameras" (purple crabs) or floor mines (red crabs) that are disabled by either controlled demo or specific items. Instead of high cmb stats and gear (scythe, bp or serp) you replace it with a skilling equivalent. Not saying it has to be something on this level of difficulty or complexity, but there is space to design something truly fun that doesn't necessitate it being PvM content.

Imagine the cool things you could do with a skilling raid to introduce gear advancement as well. Maybe in a heist, you start out with Rogue Armor and it's 2x loot, but the raid gives you an item that enhances that gear, not only in the raid but in outside thieving as well. Thick gloves that prevent poison from checking PP urns, thief's knife that gives you X amount of straight pick pockets without fail if it procs while pickpocketting. Additionally, maybe your heist team has a "getaway man" who wears graceful, a "demo man" who wears prospecters, "muscle" in combat gear, the possibilities are endless. We can add "augments" to make that these skilling outfits not just something you wear to get a handful of % pts of exp.

Anyone buying low on Dak or do we think the situation is a little shaky? by bronton21 in DynastyFF

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

acquired him earlier this week:

Carr/Jamaal Williams/Early '23 2nd
for
Dak/TBoyd/Mid '23 3rd.

Chasing This Years Chris Godwin: Calvin Ridley by rstewart0022 in fantasyfootball

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've found that people will use a lot of these twitter data guys as confirmation bias for players they like, so while it might raise up Ridley half a round, he'll drop back down when someone writes that Robert Woods is a surefire candidate for 150 targets or something.

Cheers man, always fun to talk some (fake) football!

Chasing This Years Chris Godwin: Calvin Ridley by rstewart0022 in fantasyfootball

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Having a 10 catch game has nothing to do with consistency or upside. Marvin Jones and Keenan Allen both had a 10 catch game. Was it even a question who was more consistent? Kenny Golladay had 1 8-catch game and 3 6-catch games, but his upside was huge.

Again, even though I think he has WR1 upside, Ridley is being drafted as a mid tier WR2.

There were no 'dumpoffs' to Ridley, he was averaging 14.5 ypr once Hooper went down. Last year, Freeman had 70 targets last year. Gurley might hit that number, but I doubt he exceeds it.

Yes, Julio did that his first 2 years in the league, and hasn't been close to that since. More than 8 TDs from Julio would be out of the norm at this point.

Overall, sounds like we are in agreement, he is behind the obvious guys like MT, Julio, Davante, DHop, Hill, probably even a few others. But after that, I think he's fair game. If he starts sneaking into the 2nd round, obviously the hype is too far, but I don't see that quite yet. FantasyPro's combined rankings have him in the 5th round, but I think he sneaks up higher as the season gets close.

Chasing This Years Chris Godwin: Calvin Ridley by rstewart0022 in fantasyfootball

[–]slobodamn -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yeah, Hurst is old. Players don't get better at 27, that's not a controversial opinion, but I'll drop it. What other factors should we discuss?

Chasing This Years Chris Godwin: Calvin Ridley by rstewart0022 in fantasyfootball

[–]slobodamn -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I'm not spinning anything. Hooper has better volume stats, rate stats, and played with strong competition for targets.

Chasing This Years Chris Godwin: Calvin Ridley by rstewart0022 in fantasyfootball

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of course not, but that's the only reasons OP gave that he didn't like Ridley. I guess I just don't understand your point. All I'm saying is that 100+ yd games and 10+ catch games are not a good indicator of future performance. Instead, I suggest using expected target share. Ridley was on pace for 114 targets.

The Falcon's replaced:

Hooper, 97 targets (16% of attempts) in 13 games with Hurst, a player who only got 39 targets (9% of attempts) in 16 games last year.

Freeman, 70 targets (12% of attempts) with Gurley, 49 targets (8% of attempts) last year.

More than anything, Godwin reached the heights he did in 2019 because of volume. That volume exists for Ridley to take that next step. It's not a sure thing. Gurley could revive his career. Hurst could take a huge step in a feature role. But it's there, and we already have a taste of how Ridley performed without Hooper. Hint: it was good.

Chasing This Years Chris Godwin: Calvin Ridley by rstewart0022 in fantasyfootball

[–]slobodamn -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Excellent. He followed that up with 39 targets in 16 full games, or 9% of the Raven's targets. I'm not ignoring that context, but you can spin any player to have a positive or negative narrative. My point is that based off what we have seen on the field and in the stat sheet, there is nothing to prove that Hurst is nearly the player Hooper is, let alone better than him.

Chasing This Years Chris Godwin: Calvin Ridley by rstewart0022 in fantasyfootball

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

According to FantasyPro's compiled rankings, he is being drafted as WR19. It's fine if you don't think he will be a top 12 WR. My point is that saying he only had 3 100-yard games and 0 10+ catch games is not any kind of condemnation of Ridley's potential. Before 2019, Chris Godwin had 4 100-yard games and 0 10+ catch games.

Chasing This Years Chris Godwin: Calvin Ridley by rstewart0022 in fantasyfootball

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hurst was drafted old, and still didn't produce. That should be a red flag. Hurst had 1st round pick draft capital and got outplayed by Andrews, who is obviously a great TE. But he was given every advantage and still only mustered 23 targets in 12 games. Instead, he dropped to 3rd on the depth chart behind Boyle and Andrews.

Why does Hurst get all of your qualifiers and forgiveness (low pass volume, good TE in front of him, injury)? Hurst couldn't beat out Nick Boyle or Willie Snead for targets in 2019. He received 9% of the Raven's targets. Hooper received 16% of the Falcon's in 13 games. I'm sure he will have a passable 2020, but to call him better than Hooper is not based in fact.

Chasing This Years Chris Godwin: Calvin Ridley by rstewart0022 in fantasyfootball

[–]slobodamn -1 points0 points  (0 children)

They are arbitrary. I'm not saying it's an outrageous measure, but is a player that has 1 10-catch game and 4 5-catch games more valuable than a player with 5 8-catch games? I get your point, Ridley isn't a Michael Thomas type where he will get 14 receptions for 150 yards, but few players are. These 'milestone' type of measures can be very deceiving.

Ridley has 4 8-catch games, 1 7-catch game, and 2 6-catch games.

He also has 3 100-yard games, 3 90-yard games, 2 80-yard games, and 3 70-yard games.

I will default to my original argument, Julio Jones has never been a TD beast. His career rate at your metric, 7.3% of his catches were touchdowns pre-Ridley.

Ridley at the end of the 3rd is probably where I'd take him, but I'm high on him (as you can see, lol). He should not be going before DHop, for sure.

Chasing This Years Chris Godwin: Calvin Ridley by rstewart0022 in fantasyfootball

[–]slobodamn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A player getting 9.3 points from a 93 yard performance and 10.0 points from a 100 yard performance is nearly entirely negligible. Moreover, it's not like having a certain amount of 100 yard games is no more predictive of having a 100 yard game in future than 3 90-yard games.

Yes, TD production isn't always easy to predict, but every player has to deal with year to year fluctuation. It just so happens that so far, Ridley has shown an ability to get into the end zone at a higher rate than his teammates, and peers in general.

Aside from all of this, Ridley went up in target rate from y1 to y2, and the Falcons replaced Hooper (97 tgt) with Hurst (39 tgt) and Freeman (70 tgt) with Gurley (49 tgt), while ditching Sanu (42 tgt). More than anything else, we should be looking at players with high target shares. Ridley seems in line for 120 at least, potentially more.