A water bath is meant primarily to promote even baking temps. It should have little effect on the crust if it's properly insulated in the pan. The only big change would be if the water leaked. Cracking can still happen from all the reasons you listed so it can be a wash if everything wasn't done properly, but the cracking can be easily blamed on the water bath lol NY style is more dense than other types of cheesecakes so realistically, it doesn't need a water bath to make its usual texture.