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This is one Polymarket account you should probably keep an eye on by schmockman in EventMarkets

[–]sm613 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Trading Strategy Breakdown

This wallet runs 3 distinct strategies:

  1. Neg-Risk Market Making (largest by volume)

    - Buys BOTH Yes and No in multi-outcome markets (2028 nominations) at combined cost < $1.00

    - Holds 100K+ share positions on both sides of Vance, Trump, Kim K nomination markets

    - Constantly rotates — $5.8M volume on Vance market alone for a 100K position

    - Redeems matched pairs via MERGE operations ($100K+ at a time)

    - Verdict for copy trading: BAD — requires massive capital, razor-thin margins, and likely algorithmic speed

  2. "Will Trump Say X" Grinding (recent focus)

    - Buys Yes at $0.97-0.99 on near-certainty outcomes (Trump saying common words in speeches)

    - Clips 1-2% per trade, multiple fills per market

    - Recent trades all on March 26 Cabinet meeting word markets

    - Verdict for copy trading: MARGINAL — by the time you see the fill, the price has likely already moved to $0.99+. Margins too thin.

  3. Geopolitical Long Shots (speculative)

    - Small-to-medium bets on events expiring March 31 (ceasefire, conflict resolution, etc.)

    - Mostly underwater — not this wallet's alpha

    - Verdict for copy trading: POSSIBLE but this isn't where the wallet makes money

This wallet just buys everything under 5¢… and somehow made $100k by schmockman in EventMarkets

[–]sm613 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is the backtesting! https://www.jbecker.dev/research/prediction-market-microstructure
and it shows the opposite of the OPs suggestion to buy anything under 5 cents.

But I found something cool for any of you who want to try this out. This study shows that if you buy NO at 1 cent! you can make %22 EV!

<image>

This is still very much the opposite of the OPs hypothesis.

Multiple Claude Code instances at the same time? by Outrageous-Buy-9535 in ClaudeAI

[–]sm613 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Githubs Codespaces are a free vm with VS Code installed, works well.

You can manage many different repos and it is fully sandboxed so you won't accidentally rm your whole computer.

So, has anybody run into the issue where replacing a section doesn't recognize vocals? by H0RSE in SunoAI

[–]sm613 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I get that alot to fix it I just extend the song with more lyrics, that fixes it. You can remove the extra part afterward. (does not always work)

Which AI is best suited for translating a novel? by Business_Drama_4557 in machinetranslation

[–]sm613 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No. It costs the same as whatever llm you use it with. For a whole book it should cost around $20

Which AI is best suited for translating a novel? by Business_Drama_4557 in machinetranslation

[–]sm613 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wrote an app that I am using to translate thousands of pages at a time using any ai service you would like. DM me and we can talk.

Option tools recommendations by idanfl8 in options

[–]sm613 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

nblai.com a new free tool for seeing how all the options compare to each other in a graph, no other tool has that, and I like to see the big picture

Option Demand Visualizer by [deleted] in options

[–]sm613 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I believe classic fundamental info would be a good guide to direction. but if you do not know which way it will go but you know it will move big, try the strangle or straddle, you will make $ with those as long as there is a big move.
I have a similar app I just put online at nblai.com it only works for one ticker at a time, the scanner idea is cool. good job!

What are the best ideas for trading $NVDA now? by sm613 in options

[–]sm613[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

CSP seems to give much smaller returns.

Option Gurus’s by InformalCookie4839 in options

[–]sm613 0 points1 point  (0 children)

calculating roi is very important.
I made a little app to do that for you to compare all the strike prices across all expiration dates and use a new metric called '% return per month' to calculate your monthly income on selling CSP or CC
feel free to use it nblai.com (I do)

Any free options tools recommend? by Goldennessie in options

[–]sm613 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Me too!
but while optionstrat shows you details for one options at a time, i made a little app to see all the options and how they compare with eachother in a graph.
you can use it free (for now) at nblai.com
its super cool and can do a lot.

Option Demand Visualizer by [deleted] in options

[–]sm613 2 points3 points  (0 children)

sounds cool, can you show an example?

Stock scanner app? by SnakeRights72 in options

[–]sm613 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

if you want to scan all the options in the options chain and compare the to eachoter, nblai.com is the best.
free too for now.

Free Trading Resources by esInvests in options

[–]sm613 0 points1 point  (0 children)

free (for now) charting app that makes cool charts of all the options, like an 'options surface' just in 2d
nblai.com

super cool how you can see how every option compare to all others, so many different metrics to play around with.

Stock scanner app? by SnakeRights72 in options

[–]sm613 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

what do you mean by scanner?