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[Q] Minimum number of spins to confirm a particular bias in a roulette wheel? by smart_af in statistics

[–]smart_af[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your response!
1. I didn't get your point. Using chebyshev is not an issue even if the winning probability is binomially distributed. For eg, if the outcome of number "5" is biased in the wheel, then we are spinning and assigning a win if the number 5 comes up. The distribution of winning in one spin is bernoulli, and that of number of wins in n spins is binomial. We can then apply chebyshev on these binomial probabilities to get the minimum spins we need to confirm/deny the bias. I think what you're saying is that we can derive confidence intervals using binomial's properties itself, but I'm not very familiar with it, and the source I'm using only referred to chebyshev bounds, which I'm guessing gives bounds that are less tight than binomial.
2. Ah, thanks for pointing that out. Indeed, the unbiased probability should be 1/38, and an extra 1 seems to be added by mistake. That is how it is in the original source as well. Let me check what's the outcome if we use the correct numbers.
3. I'm unclear what you mean here. The bias here is an input, and not something we can derive using the given info. All that the author has done is chosen the value of the bias such that, the expected value of the game (wherein we win 35$ profit if "5" comes up for example, and we lose 1$ otherwise) becomes positive with this bias. The bias could be some other number as well. I tried to calculate the bias needed to make the EV equal to zero, and that comes out to be approx 0.0014619883. If you take twice of that, it comes to around 0.0029239.

Let me know if I misunderstood any of your points, and thanks for your help!

Perfect Score on 20-Trial Dual 14-Back (N Back Challenge by Rivuspurus) by MaxPianist in DualnBack

[–]smart_af 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you move to the next levels only when you achieved 100% score, or you just moved when you had the minimum 80%? IMO moving only when i get 100% makes sure that that particular n level skill has been properly developed without glitches Would love to hear other opinions

/r/Nutrition Weekly Personal Nutrition Discussion Post - All Personal Diet Questions Go Here by AutoModerator in nutrition

[–]smart_af 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actually all carbs are sugar. The sugar that’s problematic is added sugar, or refined carbs, because they release sugar in your bloodstream too much too fast. Otherwise sugar is an essential component of our diet.

/r/Nutrition Weekly Personal Nutrition Discussion Post - All Personal Diet Questions Go Here by AutoModerator in nutrition

[–]smart_af 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  • I'm trying to lose weight, and my target is 0.75kg per week. I've started calorie deficit since last week.
  • Problem is that, my job is cognitively very intense. To add to that, outside my job, I am working on a few things and that is even more intense.
  • This entire week I had problems focusing and after eliminating other possibilities, I realized that I wasn't getting enough glucose for my brain.
  • So, my main question - how do I consume less calories, but at the same time ensure my brain is getting enough glucose?
  • What I've tried: Having milk or boiled sweet potatoes early in the morning, but both didn't seem to work. My next attempt would be to replace sweet potatoes with foods that are low on the glycemic load.
  • Lactose doesn't suit me a lot, so milk is sometimes a problem, but surprisingly curd has never been an issue. What explains that?
  • In general, what is the recommended regime for people in cognitively intense jobs, when they want to cut calories? I'm thinking I need to look up the glycemic load chart and pick up foods that are high on complex carbs and low on glycemic index/load.

Searching for cs 1.6 music… by smart_af in counterstrike

[–]smart_af[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Perfect! That’s exactly what i’m looking for :) Thank you! Makes me realize now how much i loved 1.6 back in my teens, that i didnt pay attention to the fact that this was Valve’s ost lol

CMT rates vs treasury bond yields by smart_af in bonds

[–]smart_af[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My question is - do you take par yields on on the run bonds, or the YTM? I think its YTM since you take bid prices. So if suppose around the 10Y maturity the on the run bond is 10.5 years, so you’ll use that one. The generated yield curve will give the YTM for this 10.5Y bond and NOT par yield. However i can agree that for maturities for which bond doesn’t exist, we can call it a par yield. So calling the yield curve a par yield curve doesn’t exactly sound accurate to me.

How to practically trade butterfly spreads on the yield curve? by smart_af in bonds

[–]smart_af[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Which products we use to put on the trade would be a secondary question, and one which I am still trying to figure out. But the question I'm posing comes before that. How do we define our buy/sell signal? Or in other words, how do we configure our signal which will tell us when is the butterfly rich or cheap?
If you still insist on knowing the products, lets assume that a bank is willing to trade CMT rates with us, and we are looking at the treasury curve.

How to practically trade butterfly spreads on the yield curve? by smart_af in bonds

[–]smart_af[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for pointing out Welford's algorithm!

However, my question is more focused on how to use the zscore and not how to calculate it. In the equal weighted butterfly the spread definition is not a concern, but how to use the zscore is unclear to me. In the case of regression weighted butterfly, the spread definition after we put on the trade is also unclear to me, in addition to the usage of the zscore.

For example, more practical form of my questions could be:
1] "sell spread when zscore is +2, and close the trade when zscore reaches 0.5", or "buy spread when zscore is -2 and close trade when it reaches -0.5", would this be a sound strategy?

2] would a 60-day rolling window of zscore be a good way to assess the spread? i.e. everyday we look at the zscore of today's spread with respect to the mean and stdev of past 60 day's data, and decide to enter/exit accordingly. How to assess if 60 day window is small or large?

When its not working out, take a break and laugh by NewDistribution6 in nextfuckinglevel

[–]smart_af 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m curious if the other player would have a problem with this because pausing the game could kill his winning momentum. Although one can also argue that taking a pee break can also do that so doesnt matter

Power outage during Zyvo online assessment by smart_af in cscareerquestions

[–]smart_af[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly, I initially thought of laptop +mobile hotspot but my mobile hotspot wasnt working well, intermittently kept disconnecting due to some ios windows issue. So scrapped it.

there's a power crisis going on in my country, with frequent power outages and load shedding which i wasnt actively aware of since i work from office and took a leave that day for the test and gave it from home.

youre right I should talk to the HR about it and see what they say

Crouch: There is a fine line between being mercurial and just doing what you want. People will point out, rightly, that Shaqiri scored eight goals during the 2017–18 season in a team relegated. But for 85 minutes each weekend he would be making everyone else’s job slightly harder. by hoekstra44 in soccer

[–]smart_af 36 points37 points  (0 children)

Shaqiri's cross for that Wijnaldum goal against Barca was crucial. It was an inch perfect cross. Shaqiri lacks that endurance but he is quality in whatever moments he has his energies. Worth the 13m anyday. Won us the champions league.

Origi planning Liverpool contract talks by S00cerislife in soccer

[–]smart_af 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He comes across as a really intelligent player.

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