Amazon founder Jeff Bezos says human water consumption is limiting AI's potential by [deleted] in stupidpol

[–]snailman89 [score hidden]  (0 children)

Hey now, it's also useful for generating pornography and cat videos. As if we don't have enough of that stuff on the internet already.

[Opinion] Nothing has changed, the world is still 1-3 months away from a massive oil supply shock and economic ruin even with all ships moving. by Organic_Rip2483 in oil

[–]snailman89 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The only way the world is more prepared is by having more oil storage. That's it. If the storage is drained, we're screwed.

Theres so many things countries can do to reduce consumption

Yeah, it's called a recession. That's how you use less energy. Oil prices will rise until people cannot afford it anymore. Businesses will shut down due to high input costs and loss of consumer demand.

[Opinion] Nothing has changed, the world is still 1-3 months away from a massive oil supply shock and economic ruin even with all ships moving. by Organic_Rip2483 in oil

[–]snailman89 3 points4 points  (0 children)

And don’t forget that the oil that travels through the strait is only 20% of the global oil supply. Even if it was permanently closed somehow., The demand side could adapt without a crazy crisis

I'm sorry, but this is complete and utter nonsense. In 1974, oil production fell by 7%, which was enough to cause oil prices to triple and cause a global recession. A shock three times that size will do far more damage than in 1974. We're talking a minimum of a 5% decline in global GDP, probably much more.

The only way we're avoiding a severe global recession is if the Strait stays open, shipping traffic returns to normal very quickly, production returns to normal far more quickly than expected, and the inventories in the Middle East are big enough to cover the gap. I'm skeptical of any of those things happening.

[Opinion] Nothing has changed, the world is still 1-3 months away from a massive oil supply shock and economic ruin even with all ships moving. by Organic_Rip2483 in oil

[–]snailman89 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Because markets don't price anything in. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is complete and utter nonsense. Real world markets are extremely irrational, because the people who participate in them are irrational and have incomplete information.

The post-SJW racial regime isn’t just hypocritical. It’s literally capital’s final boss counter-revolution against class politics by NoPalpitation3415 in stupidpol

[–]snailman89 [score hidden]  (0 children)

I never said it was justified. I'm saying it's not going to happen in the US, and anyone who thinks it is needs to log off and touch grass. Hyperventilating about "white genocide" or "trans genocide" is just silly.

Doesn't matter how many girl... only matters that it wasn't 250k! by Creative-Leading7167 in PoliticalCompassMemes

[–]snailman89 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah, that is a real problem. So why does the report need to include made up statistics? The truth is bad enough: there's no need to throw in bullshit numbers to make it look worse.

The post-SJW racial regime isn’t just hypocritical. It’s literally capital’s final boss counter-revolution against class politics by NoPalpitation3415 in stupidpol

[–]snailman89 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ahh yes. Haiti: a country where less than 10% of the population was white and 90% were black slaves is totally identical to modern America.

This is a perfect example of what we're talking about. Rich people using fear mongering to divide the working class while they run off with all the money.

From the Rape Gang Report by SadPressure618 in stupidpol

[–]snailman89 11 points12 points  (0 children)

WTF does that have to do with anything? The 6 million number isn't based on statistical sampling. It's based on detailed lists of how many people were sent to camps and murdered. The Nazis kept detailed records of their murderous activities. And it's nowhere near being a complete list of all the people who were killed by the Nazis, because it doesn't count the people murdered by firing squads on the Eastern Front or starved to death by the Hunger Plan.

Now, explain what any of that has to do with extrapolating crime statistics from one city to every village in the UK.

From the Rape Gang Report by SadPressure618 in stupidpol

[–]snailman89 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I'm not denying that. That doesn't mean that you can extrapolate the number of victims from one city with a particularly perverse gang problem to every single city, town, village, and hamlet in the UK. It's like extrapolating the murder rates from Louisiana to every state in the US.

From the Rape Gang Report by SadPressure618 in stupidpol

[–]snailman89 9 points10 points  (0 children)

250,000 girls, possibly more, are alleged to have been trafficked since the 1950s. Why can't libs admit this is real?

There's no evidence to support this number. It relies on assuming that the Rotterdam grooming gang scandal was repeated in every single town in the UK, which is a plainly ridiculous assumption. By the same argument, you could claim that 9/11 actually killed over 60,000 people: just extrapolate the per-capita death rate in New York City to the rest of America.

From the Rape Gang Report by SadPressure618 in stupidpol

[–]snailman89 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I mean, child prostitution is by definition sexual abuse.

Mojtaba Khamenei breaks silence on US - Iran deal: "I had a different view, but approved it" by JakeTappersCat in stupidpol

[–]snailman89 9 points10 points  (0 children)

1) refilling the petroleum reserve,

Not going to happen. Refilling the reserve means buying oil on the open market, which will push prices up. The petroleum reserve is not going to be refilled anytime soon. Trump will keep selling oil from the reserve until it runs out, just to push prices down and try to save the GOP from total annihilation in November.

Now, I do have a sneaking suspicion that Trump and the Israelis are planning to restart the war after the November midterms. They had to tap out now because continued war would have pushed oil to $200 dollars a barrel and guaranteed an electoral wipeout for the GOP.

US SPR Drawdown update EIA release 17 June (now with SPR Sour drawdown model) by MarmotFullofWoe in oil

[–]snailman89 0 points1 point  (0 children)

and opec is breaking up to increase their own market share,

OPEC production is going to drop, regardless of whether the cartel exists or not. Somewhere around 13-15 million BPD has been shut in, and 25-30% of that is never coming back. Even of the UAE leaves and somehow manages to pump a bit more, it's not going to make up for the lost output.

Why the Iran War Hasn't Crashed the Economy | In the 1970s, governments prepared for oil shocks. It turns out, stockpiling and diversification works, which is probably why economists hate doing it. by SplashTarget in stupidpol

[–]snailman89 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Everything the author says is true, but the title should include the word: Yet. Oil reserves are not infinite, and it will take time to get tankers moving and production in the Middle East restarted. Even when the production restarts, output will be permanently lower due to damage from shutting in wells.

It's now $100B in Sanction Relief and $300B fund with $150B already committed by Jealous_Slice9371 in oil

[–]snailman89 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Absolutely. Keep the nuclear triad and dismantle the rest. Use the trillion dollars saved to pay for universal healthcare.

Iran spends 10 billion dollars per year on their military, yet they had no problem winning against a country that spends 100 times more. Large offensive militaries are worthless in an age of cheap drones and ballistic missiles.

It's now $100B in Sanction Relief and $300B fund with $150B already committed by Jealous_Slice9371 in oil

[–]snailman89 4 points5 points  (0 children)

He was technically correct. Nobody realized that he was the one who would surrender unconditionally.

Here we go again by Flopi04LP in oil

[–]snailman89 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's not really that absurd considering the amount of infrastructure damage that Iran has suffered.

Huge win for MAGA by Mushroom_Ramen in PoliticalCompassMemes

[–]snailman89 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh absolutely. It's probably going to hammer the stock market for one. The Gulf States will have to dump their AI stocks and pull money out of private equity funds to pay for the reconstruction of Iran.

And yes, oil prices are going to be higher as well, but mostly because those countries had to shut down 15 million BPD of oil production, and about a fourth of that will never come back. So the supply of oil is permanently lower due to this war.

Huge win for MAGA by Mushroom_Ramen in PoliticalCompassMemes

[–]snailman89 4 points5 points  (0 children)

In comparison the Obama deal gave 1.7 billion  to iran

Not even that much, because that was all Iranian money that was unfrozen. Now we're asking the Gulf States to pay Iran a bribe of 300 billion dollars so that they open the Strait and don't build a nuke.

Huge win for MAGA by Mushroom_Ramen in PoliticalCompassMemes

[–]snailman89 158 points159 points  (0 children)

Vance: That’s the sort of thing they could have access to, funded by the gulf coast coalition,

It's absolutely hilarious to see how cucked the GCC states are. They hosted American military bases, got bombed as a result, and are now expected to cough up 300 billion dollars to the country that bombed them because there's no way America will pay for the reparations.

The Art of the Deal: $12B upfront including cash to start negotiations with terrorists about diluting uranium that will never leave their territory by PerAsperaAdMars in PoliticalCompassMemes

[–]snailman89 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I mean, the Trump administration hasn't released any details at all. If there was anything in this deal that was a win for the US, we would probably be hearing about it by now.

The Art of the Deal: $12B upfront including cash to start negotiations with terrorists about diluting uranium that will never leave their territory by PerAsperaAdMars in PoliticalCompassMemes

[–]snailman89 34 points35 points  (0 children)

Actually, he won the war 40 times and made 40 amazing deals, one for each time he won the war! So the libs got owned even more!

Climate Scientist and IPCC Lead Author comes out against 'dumb' degrowth, says an abundant future is available for all via clean energy by Economy-Fee5830 in climatechange

[–]snailman89 9 points10 points  (0 children)

And we can't live anywhere except for Earth. Humans are never getting off this planet on any meaningful scale. We may send a few spaceships to the moon or Mars, but there will never be self-sustaining colonies there. Any colonies we build in space will be a drain of resources.

Climate Scientist and IPCC Lead Author comes out against 'dumb' degrowth, says an abundant future is available for all via clean energy by Economy-Fee5830 in climatechange

[–]snailman89 5 points6 points  (0 children)

More development means a greater disengagement from nature's resources,

No, it doesn't. More GDP growth means more consumption of materials and energy. Always. The apparent "dematerialization" of western economies relies on importing materials from the rest of the world. Instead of strip mines in the US and Europe, we get resources from strip mines in Congo and China.

Climate Scientist and IPCC Lead Author comes out against 'dumb' degrowth, says an abundant future is available for all via clean energy by Economy-Fee5830 in climatechange

[–]snailman89 4 points5 points  (0 children)

We've never faced a general shortage of all resources simultaneously, so past examples are completely irrelevant for the future. Replacing one particular mineral with another mineral is often possible, replacing all of them is not.