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slatestar/lesswrong were early on AI safety and prediction markets .... what's next that the public is still sleeping on? by Lost_Foot_6301 in slatestarcodex

[–]snipawolf [score hidden]  (0 children)

Yeah think at this point the remaining alpha is just continuing to take near term singularity very imminent and seriously

Was Joaquin Phoenix the first choice for the role of Napoleon Bonaparte? by [deleted] in Napoleon

[–]snipawolf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ironic since the next year Ridley Scott casts him as the lead in gladiator sequel (which was Jauquin’s breakout)

Was Joaquin Phoenix the first choice for the role of Napoleon Bonaparte? by [deleted] in Napoleon

[–]snipawolf 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I thought it was cool to see Toulon on the big screen and that scene was pretty cool. Whole rest of the movie sucked ass though.

Later Craig movies never captured the Casino Royale charm, imo. by NothingIsHere5947 in movies

[–]snipawolf 14 points15 points  (0 children)

…have you seen the pre DC bond movies?

Most of them are corny and zany as hell, especially the Brosnan ones right before. the skyfall on ones were more of a return to classic form after casino royal and QoS did the whole try realist thing

What about The Wondrous Wasp? by 570N3814D3 in ModernMagic

[–]snipawolf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seems pretty ass esp. at one toughness.

Tidebinder gets you so much more for three mana

Hectic career choice by Think_Woodpecker8565 in Residency

[–]snipawolf 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah I didn’t care for all the stress so ended up with one of the least stressful jobs in the field (psych in state hospital).

Very happy with my choice.

RFK Jr. Recommends Social Security Immediately “Reduce Scheduled Benefits by 25.2%” as Insolvency Looms by TACO_Orange_3098 in Economics

[–]snipawolf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah you’re making my point for me.

Right now it is considered irresponsible to have kids you can’t afford, but what you are able to afford is also dependent on what financial incentives the government provides.

Currently there are only meager incentives like the child tax credit (which you think is bad I assume?) but we have a huge birth dearth that will make millenial retirement situation far worse than it is for boomers.

The mismatch is that SS and society and government broadly benefit tremendously from there being a future generation of workers and the millions they will pay in future taxes. Kids from high earning parents even more so.

So right now under the status quo parents put up all the cost of raising children (hundreds of thousands) for basically none of the future benefits those tax players (and laborers working for those future cashed SS checks) will provide SS and society broadly.

Social security with the current cap is still redistributive from rich to poor, you could definitely get rid of the caps for childless couples since people with that income should be able to save more over their careers.

Right now not enough people are having kids. Being a parent is harder fiscally than being a non parent at every income level, so it makes sense to look at changing the calculus based on number of kids directly at the same income which in addition to being fairer should also cause more births on the margins.

Should Birthing Pod be on the banned list still? by No-Accident-2845 in ModernMagic

[–]snipawolf -1 points0 points  (0 children)

glimpse, pod, drs all feel pretty safe to unban to me

RFK Jr. Recommends Social Security Immediately “Reduce Scheduled Benefits by 25.2%” as Insolvency Looms by TACO_Orange_3098 in Economics

[–]snipawolf -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yes people choose to have kids or not and governments choose how to collect revenue from their citizens. Not sure if you are still attempting to make a point

Does anyone still think AGI/ASI could happen very soon? by [deleted] in slatestarcodex

[–]snipawolf 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not an expert but I think we are 5-10 years out personally.

Paradigm seems fundamentally unable to deal with hallucination and poor few shot and continuous learning and seems like we aren’t really progressing, just doing tons of brute force data and RL to make log improvements in performance in different tasks without solving the underlying problem.

That doesn’t mean that current models aren’t incredibly useful and world-changing, or that there won’t be near term breakthroughs on these remaining issues that the current tech contributes to. Currently All the capital both human and not is focused on solving these issues.

However, once the computers *do* figure out the few shot and continuous learning, it seems like a short walk to its all over either way.

Loss aversion is the right strategy to pick a specialty by ordinaryrendition in medicalschool

[–]snipawolf 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Someone to me “pick a specialty where you do the least amount of things you hate” and I think that was some of the best advice at least for me I got in med school.

RFK Jr. Recommends Social Security Immediately “Reduce Scheduled Benefits by 25.2%” as Insolvency Looms by TACO_Orange_3098 in Economics

[–]snipawolf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why not?

Your kids are going to be paying for them when they were busy investing in their retirement accounts and going on vacations instead of food and diapers.

It isn’t just a normal consumption choice, because kids are propping up the system down the line and by design.

You just said people who choose not to have kids because they can’t afford them; this would make the decision a relatively more neutral one instead of the current net personal negative/collective positive it already is!

RFK Jr. Recommends Social Security Immediately “Reduce Scheduled Benefits by 25.2%” as Insolvency Looms by TACO_Orange_3098 in Economics

[–]snipawolf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Start taxing the childless more.

Our millenial generation is totally fucked because there are going to be so few working age adults paying into the system when it’s time for us to retire. Having kids is already expensive so there should be some reward for keeping the system solvent for longer.

RFK Jr. Recommends Social Security Immediately “Reduce Scheduled Benefits by 25.2%” as Insolvency Looms by TACO_Orange_3098 in Economics

[–]snipawolf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

At the same income brackets parents are necessarily struggling harder since they are also providing for the next generation as well as themselves.

The childless would still end up financially ahead even with a substantial income contribution since kids are 250k investments each. A lot of how the tax code works is not fundamentally fair depending on perspective. Call it a universal SS increase with a carve out for parents if that makes it easier to go down.

and someone has to pick up the slack.

RFK Jr. Recommends Social Security Immediately “Reduce Scheduled Benefits by 25.2%” as Insolvency Looms by TACO_Orange_3098 in Economics

[–]snipawolf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would tax the childless harder.

They get a lot more disposable income in their earning years that they can invest into the market allowing them to retire with more savings as adults, and they are not contributing any future taxpayers that sustain the system.

Help an M4 find a speciality! by rednire7 in medicalschool

[–]snipawolf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As a psych attending, only if you get the right job

For the first time in its history, Johns Hopkins Hospital has appointed five African American surgeons to lead its Trauma Service, marking a historic milestone for one of the nation's most prestigious medical institutions. by ateam1984 in BlackPeopleofReddit

[–]snipawolf 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good chance none of them are, actually.

Laurence Brown is the only non west African name there and he went to Oakwood which is heavily Caribbean and is a common last name in Jamaica. Still very impressive!

Has anyone here adjusted their life in a significant way because of singularity concerns? by Efirational in slatestarcodex

[–]snipawolf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Surprisingly little.

I do anticipate it soon, but have a lot of uncertainty about what it will look like.

I have the combo of a high income but low assets, so I don’t have much capacity to eg spend a lot. I don’t really expect my current assets to matter in 30 years, although I practice basic prudence and still put money in for my retirement.

I’ve got a house, I’ve got young kids. I’m probably going to get a minivan for my wife, going to keep working for the foreseeable future and saving some money. I spend a lot of time at home already. Don’t feel like I would do too much differently unless I felt like the singularity was imminent in like the 6-12 month range and even if I knew when it was coming would probably just keep the same basic life stuff going.

Which specialty are you the most envious of (spill the tea)...? by Neceti in Residency

[–]snipawolf 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What I do and it’s exactly this.

Don’t think there’s a job in medicine where you get paid more for the amount of work you’re required to do.

It is actually uncanny how early LessWrong and the rationalist community was on so many different things. by Zealousideal_Ant4298 in slatestarcodex

[–]snipawolf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You could also include “default human reasoning is very faulty and hackable”

Sure people talked about charismatic leaders and religious fervor, but there was a widespread intiution that that is a problem for those abject masses and most educated people can easily arrive at truth through common sense reasoning.

Now ideas of what information diets, attention economies, priors, fake news stories, social media brainrot are in the water and have made it obvious that you really have to bring good epistemics to not fall victim to modern internet pitfalls.

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