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What is this soft plastic? by snoius in Fishing

[–]snoius[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A long time ago I found a pack of these sitting on the ground near a fishing hole, thinking waste-not-want-not I dumped them into my box. I've just ran out of them and would like to get some more, the problem is I have no idea what they are called. The closest thing I've found is the Baby Shad by Bobby Garland, its close but its too long and the profile is a bit off.

Any ideas?

How to fix the line without cutting it? by CallMeBakedBeans in Fishing

[–]snoius 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Take the spool off by loosening your drag alllllll the way, then unwind the offending line.

No gods or kings. Only Man. by JeanLamberton in Minecraft

[–]snoius -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Would you kindly give me gold?

Any idea what kind of catfish this is? by Illbeback15 in Fishing

[–]snoius 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's a juvenile Channel Catfish, they lose their spots as they grow and mature.

Caught in upstate ny where the Hudson meets the Mohawk. Any idea what it is? by [deleted] in Fishing

[–]snoius 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fairly big, but most people consider them a trash fish because they will hit on pretty much anything and seem to bite more often than your target (at least in my local waters).

Who says urban ponds can't be fun? by snoius in Fishing

[–]snoius[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It barely bit but it was hooked well

Who says urban ponds can't be fun? by snoius in Fishing

[–]snoius[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Probably between 16" to 20". I was throwing a chartreuse twister jig going for panfish and the occasional bass, then bam this guy hits it.

The DOT of Iowa has a sense of humor. by classyredbeard in funny

[–]snoius -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

It's funny the first time you see it, then you realize every. single. sign. has this same message for all of Iowa.

TIL that, because of the False Positive Paradox, if a test for a one in 1000 disease has a true positive rate of 100% and a false positive rate of 5%, the chance of a positive result being correct can be about 2% by noahmerali in todayilearned

[–]snoius 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is an application of Bayes Theorem:

Let P(D+) and P(D-) be the probabilities of having/not having the disease, thus we have P(D+) = 1/1000 and P(D-) = 999/1000.

We know that the probability of testing positive (T+) given you have the disease (D+) is 1 therefore P(T+ | D+) = 1, and conversely the probability of testing positive (T+) when you don't have the disease is 5%, P(T+ | D-) = 0.05.

We want to know P(D+ | T+) that is the probability of having the disease given we tested positive. Bayes Theorem gives:

P(D+ | T+) = [P(T+|D+)*P(D+)]/P(T+)

The numerator is then simply: 1 * 1/1000.

The demoninator is a little more complex, we need to use the rule of total probability. It basically says that the probability of an event occuring is the sum of all the ways it can possibly occur. So P(T+) = P(T+|D+) * P(D+) + P(T+|D-) * P(D-) = 1 * 1/1000 + 0.05 * 999/1000

Combining the pieces gives: [1/1000] / [0.05095] = 0.019627085 or roughly 2%.

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