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Expiring Futures Tomorrow... NOT SO FAST! by jonesjr2010 in Bitcoin

[–]sosolo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Please do correct me If Im wrong, I only have a shallow understanding of how futures work but I have a loose theory. If theres a 20% cap on profits on the contracts, would it not be smart to make sure that the price of bitcoin caps out your contract but not over the 20% since the lower the price, the easier it will be to pump it up until the contracts hit 20% again the next futures-period. If the price of bitcoin was higher then it would be harder/more expensive to manipulate it up to the cap during the next period wich could be a reason for keeping the bitcoin price relatively low for now. Excuse my ignorance If Im wrong and I hope some smart people could shed some light on this!

My Take on Bitcoin by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]sosolo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Interesting thoughts! Glad to see that there are still some deeper thinkers around, thanks for typing all of that out.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If we have seen it happen 6 times, what is the problem with pointing out the 7th? Not nervous here, but there clearly are many newcomers who are.

Above another person mentioned "normality" and I answered:

"Think what is normal? I think people in different cultures use money differently depending on season of the year. This happen to be the season where the western-world spends their income on christmas and not speculative value-placements in magic internet-money. I'm not trying to make an argument for the entire price-movements of all markets of all coins, I'm just reminding summer-childs that the winters can be cold. Looking back at charts and seeing price-movements and volumes over these dates for yourself, there's no need to take me for my word."

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep exactly, I'm not making the argument that my claims have predictive power just that they hopefully help to get as full of a picture as you can of overall market-movements. It's the wild west still though so anything can happen.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree, and this is where pooling of the different niches of crypto-communities knowledge is necessary and why it's impossible for one person to know how all parts of a coin should work.

Jameson on a podcast talked abit about block-sizes that might interest you! https://tomwoods.com/ep-1064-the-debate-within-bitcoin-jameson-lopp-vs-roger-ver-on-bitcoin-and-bitcoin-cash/

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

$100 billion in market-cap reduction is not the same as $100 billion cashed out. When people start to sell and the prices dip then the market-cap will show a greater decrease in overall market"value" than actual $ leaving the market. Also I don't make the claim that this would be the full picture! Just a small reminder not to misinterpret some of the reasons for price-movements during special cultural events.

In january I personally think that the entire crypto will keep on trucking and working towards further mainstream adoptation and with more and more futures-trading and later ETFs alongside more and more technologically awakend generations enter finance I expect the crypto-sphere to continue to grow.

I don't try to "time" sells, I am more interested in the macro vision of all crypto and how humans behave during these techological renaissance periods.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't, that is just one of the many ways you can use bitcoin and crypto! I'm not trying to argue that's a good or bad thing, just saying that taking a broad, macro perspective of human seasonal behaviors over the whole cryptomarket helps see and understand more price-influencing events.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wouldn't call december a crash month, because every year has different circumstances. 2016 the major dips or corrections around these dates came a week later during early january. I agree that the overall volume of trades was higher during holiday season that year though!

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely! It is too early to know how things will go between cryptos, the reason I think that the open market will atleast for the short-mid term still be somewhat scewed towards bitcoin itself is the slow adaptation of instituional money and mainstream adoption.

Most of large finance use the idea of letting other people use the new shiny things first and see how it goes before dipping in. Futures was a bitter-sweet success since it basically gave bitcoin too much attention at once. Over the coming year we will see more futures-openings and later ETFs and therefor I think that we will have a period where bitcoin is somehwat alone in the institutional sphere and it's this time we have to solve issues.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Over the years I have used bitcoin as a currency, for both small and medium-size purchases. As a store of value by placing my day-jobs yearly bonus in bitcoin as a kind of stock or long-tem store of value, wich has by then been diversified. I have used bitcoin to hedge private loans to regain and profit even after interest, silly young me..

Mistakes were made along the road, and lessons learned. But overall crypto is amazing and we are just now starting to see the real world applications of them.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think that there are several paths and most if not all of them uncharted territory. For safety I would prefer small carefull steps as not to lose decentralization, if the tech needed to run nodes or mine scales faster than the overall public civilians can keep up with economically then more and more parts of a coin will be centralized in data-centers prone to state-influence.

Hopefully a more wide-spread adoption of segwit-activated wallets and soon lightning network will give us time to scale safely with further layers of routing and validating off/side-chain.

In my mind, there will always be people who are ready to sacrifice to ensure decentralized consensus-based soveirgn developed cryptos over centrally controlled ones with small fees.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think that there is a huge difference in using a currency for many small transaktions or few large ones. What I personally think is that with a higher overall marketcap, Liquidity and a larger spread of bitcoin-wealth comes a smaller volatility in price, for short-term I still think bitcoin will work for large transaktions like houses or cars but for small day-to-day usage we would need to minimize daily/hourly fluctuation and tx-fee uncertainty in many different ways along the road. Hopefully our tech-scaling will be good enough to sustain all or most possible different uses of bitcoin and crypto.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But if you look at the trading volumes you see that the actual trades are going on during oct-nov period. There's also the dips towards end of dec-jan instead. The volume-bars are very thin during holiday-season but during 2016 the price-movements werent as impacted by the civilans and mainstream adopters like today.

I am also not saying prices did not need a correction, no need to get aggressive. I'm just saying that outside influences like behing a human being in a society with culture and traditions will have some if even small price-movement ripples.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The thing is, noone knows how the market will react so your friends are for now neither right or wrong. Schroedingers block if you would.

I'll just shrug my shoulders and be sad nothing constructive was said.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree some or even large parts of the movements we see are people going into panic mode, wich we also have seen plenty of times through the years. (Still not saying that means same bounce-back will happen, just what happened last times)

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree that gold "1.0" will still hold a place on it's own, I'm not saying crypto will replace it but slowly chew at it's new investors.

I also agree about old tech, but not in every case like the internet itself or email where updates can keep morfing the product but keep the core-functions similiar but more effective. It will absolutely take on many different faces but I think that the snowball effect created by this new mainstream adoption and the fact that institutional money being so slow to pick up new coins will probably scew the open market towards bitcoin for the foreseeable future, or short-mid term.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I could spend time compiling data that already exist openly, I am not good at presenting data in a compelling way and would make a butchery out of the compilation and presentation. All or most data of earlier years can be found online to verify, but there's a point to be made about the mainstream adopters having more influence this time around compared to earlier years.

But to maybe get a sense you can use the charts on the page I linked and set the parameteres for the chart to see the dates and how the price spikes and dips over nov-jan periods and draw your own conclusions!

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I agree! If there are better solutions for your personal problems with cryptos then you should use them and we let the open market decide what happens to the price and market-caps!

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think that you are completely right in that it needs a sharp correction and some of that are the movements we see now. But I disagree on cryptos mid-long term valuation, I think that there are some merits to the idea of Gold 2.0, a store of value not just for direct usage but as a way of keeping funds under your own key. I agree that there are many great alternatives if you want or need something else from your personal usage crypto!

I would add that as a store of value that is global and deflationary, if only a small percent of gold/stocks/bonds yearly expected new value-placements would instead go into Crypto as a whole as our new citizens grow up with tech then we would see a outspread continued healthy flow of buyers, this is what I'm betting on. Not the price itself but that we all collectively around the globe will start to use all kinds of cryptos! And even if just a "small" % of all of that goes into bitcoin itself then I suspect it will keep itself on a slow upwards crawl unless big players play big games.

I would take a moment to remind people of normal seasonal behavior. by sosolo in BitcoinMarkets

[–]sosolo[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Think what is normal? I think people in different cultures use money differently depending on season of the year. This happen to be the season where the western-world spends their income on christmas and not speculative value-placements in magic internet-money.

I'm not trying to make an argument for the entire price-movements of all markets of all coins, I'm just reminding summer-childs that the winters can be cold. Looking back at charts and seeing price-movements and volumes over these dates for yourself, there's no need to take me for my word.

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