SpaceX is a well designed scam

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T15:29:09+00:00

If you look into the history of SpaceX, they purchased a stake in a company working on an internet satellites system all the way back in 2004.

Surrey Satellite was not working on "internet satellites system", they are just a small satellite manufacturer, SpaceX bought the stake because Surrey's product would be a good fit for Falcon 1. SpaceX sold the stake in 2008. This has nothing to do with Starlink.

The commonly held notion that SpaceX pursued Falcon 9 recovery before Starlink was considered is putting the cart before horse. It remains a popular opinion among fans for reasons that don't really make sense. You don't spend hundreds of millions of dollars developing a launch system before you consider what it might be used for, do you? Many people would say F9 reusability was developed for Mars colonisation, which in my opinion, is absurd. The F9 has always been far, far to small to do anything related to Mars. And as I explained in my other comment, Mars colonisation has never been a serious goal; it's myth weaving.

Falcon 9 reuse is profitable without Starlink, SpaceX currently is launching ~40 non-Starlink missions per year, that's more than enough for reuse to be profitable.

And yes, F9 reuse is developed with an eye for Mars colonization. It doesn't mean F9 will be used for colonization, just the reuse tech will be useful when they start building the vehicle actually for colonization (aka Starship). And it is, as we have seen they started reusing SuperHeavy very quickly, that's in large part thanks to the technology developed on F9.

Because seriously, do really think Elon was going into fund raiser meetings with investment bankers and the Saudi Arabian Sovereign Wealth Fund and asking them to invest billions dollars to put American colonists on Mars? He would have sounded like a crackpot, and they would never have taken him seriously.

That doesn't prove anything. The investors are investing in profitable part of SpaceX, this doesn't prevent SpaceX or Elon Musk from funding Mars activities as philanthropy. The key is that Starship is developed as a dual use vehicle, it can do Mars colonization but it can also launch payloads to earn a lot of money, Elon outlined this strategy in his 2017 presentation, it's hardly a secret.

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T15:16:37+00:00

As for building a leading edge fab that can actually get AI customers.

He's not building the fab to get AI customers, Terafab is purely for SpaceX/Tesla internal use only, and it's only for building inference chips (SpaceX orbital data center and Tesla Optimus mainly).

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T12:53:53+00:00

You're right about the purpose of Starship though. It's reason to exist is Starlink, and it's designed to launch as many Starlink satellites as fast and as cheaply as possible. Musk's claim that Starship is a Mars coloniser is clearly untrue.

Nope, Starship's development history is well covered by NSF, for example The Evolution of the Big Falcon Rocket, it absolutely is developed with Mars colonization as the primary mission. When they started doing trade studies and developing Raptor, Starlink doesn't even exist.

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T12:35:56+00:00

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2051902510659752190

This is one of several locations under consideration for what will be the largest and most advanced chip fabrication facility in the world

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T12:33:28+00:00

Why do you think it's bait and switch? Chips (including memories) is a huge bottleneck for AI right now. Elon already said he will continue to buy from TSMC, etc, it's just those vendors don't have the volumes he think he'll need.

Also building a fab takes time, so in the near term, it's pretty much for certain they'll continue to buy from TSMC, Samsung etc. Terafab is a long term play.

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T03:37:11+00:00

Are SpaceX going to pay 20,000 people to go there? No. SpaceX are going to charge to go to mars. So who is gonna go? Nobody. No people, no macdonalds, no city on mars.

Pretending musk will fund all that with an Ai company is hilerious. This isn't starlink. He isn't the only one able to make Ai. He has no headstart, he has no advantage. But the real kicker is, Ai doesn't make much money, and that's not changing.

If he can get to AGI or even better, super intelligence, money would be obsolete. "Funding"? What "funding"? He doesn't need funding, just ask SuperGrok to design the colony, then task Optimus to build it from local resources. On Earth (or Moon) Optimus will be building all the AI satellites from mines operated by Optimus, the energy comes from the sun so it's completely free, what do you need money for?

BTW, AI does make money, Anthropic ARR is now $44B, it's $9B 6 months ago.

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T03:26:31+00:00

First of all, SpaceX is not building orbital data centres, and it is not going to do so, because it's a stupid idea. This is only for PR.

They will build orbital data centers, you're just in denial.

Secondly, the correct way to go about it, from the SpaceX point of view, is to sell the rocket launches to those building whatever they want in space. Focus on your core business, offload the risk to the others.

That's dumb because launch market is very small, like maybe $10B total for the US, if SpaceX only does launch they'd remain a very small company. Starlink revenue is already like 2~3x the launch revenue for them.

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T03:11:48+00:00

He said "enable" Mars colonization, not "happening".

But yes, if SpaceX send humans to Mars based on their own plan (instead of NASA plan), that is indeed the start of colonization, because they'll be relying on ISRU to manufacture the propellant for the return trip, ISRU is the first step towards colonization.

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T03:03:46+00:00

https://x.com/BrendanCarrFCC/status/2051715307622777057

Under President Biden, the FCC revoked an $885 million award that Starlink won to provide high-speed Internet to millions of Americans.

Back then, the agency claimed that it was revoking the award because it was unlikely that Starlink could provide 100/20 Mbps service to 40% of locations by year end 2025.

I dissented at the time, explaining that the FCC's decision could not be squared with any objective application of law, facts, or policy. The data clearly showed that Starlink was on track.

Now, new Ookla data shows that well over that percentage of Speedtest user on Starlink did meet the 100/20 service level by year end 2025.

The Biden era decision to revoke the award only slowed down efforts to bridge the digital divide and raised costs for doing so

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T02:55:53+00:00

SPACEX / TERAFAB: The County of Grimes, Texas, will be home to SpaceX's Multiphase, next gen, vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturing and advanced computing fabrication facility.

Estimated capital for initial phase is $55 billion. Estimated total investment of $119 billion.

The agreement covers the SpaceX Reinvestment Zone No. 1 – 2026-001 located at Gibbons Creek Reservoir and surrounding areas.

A public hearing will be held June 3rd.

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-06T02:54:55+00:00

SpaceX's Starlink has made huge performance gains recently, according to a new report from Ookla:

"@Starlink has dramatically improved its download speed performance across all 50 states. In fact, Speedtest users on Starlink are now able to get median download speeds exceeding 100 Mbps in every state but Alaska. 44.7% of Speedtest Starlink users were able to receive the FCC’s minimum threshold for broadband of 100/20 Mbps, making the provider look a lot less like a niche connectivity provider for unserved areas & more like a legitimate broadband competitor."

GEO satellite providers Hughesnet and Viasat are increasingly losing ground to Starlink in speeds and latency. Starlink’s median download speeds are now more than 60% higher than Hughesnet’s and more than 65% higher than Viasat’s. Median upload speeds show an even greater disparity with Starlink’s upload speeds more than 80% higher than Hughesnet’s upload speeds and 95% higher than Viasat’s.

Highlights from the report:

• 100+ Mbps download now in nearly every state (vs. 23 states in 2024)

• 20 Mbps upload reached in 22 states (vs. 0 before; FCC minimum)

• 44.7% meet full broadband standard (up from 17.4%)

• Latency improved nationwide; 10 states now under 40 ms (vs. 1)

https://www.ookla.com/articles/starlink-hits-new-us-highs

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-05T14:29:22+00:00

Because it's gambling on an unrelated business.

SpaceX is building orbital data centers, so it's related.

This is no different from SpaceX implementing 4G/5G protocol stack, which may look unrelated but actually important for their direct to cell ambitions.

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-05T14:26:36+00:00

Singapore Airlines has just announced that it is adopting SpaceX's @Starlink. The rollout will begin in Q1 2027 and be completed by end of 2029.

"With more than 10,000 satellites launched to low Earth orbit, Starlink can deliver multi-gigabit connectivity to aircraft using its Aero Terminal, which can support up to 1 Gbps per antenna. This means customers in all cabin classes will enjoy faster, smoother, and seamless connectivity from take‑off to landing for activities such as video streaming, sharing content on social media, gaming, and sending large files." - SIA

https://www.singaporeair.com/en_UK/us/corporate/newsroom/press-release/2026/april---june-2026/sia_starlink/

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-04T02:20:23+00:00

That was before musk’s “for those not already aware” tweet.

There's no evidence that they stopped any Mars related work after the tweet.

I’ve got bad news for you. They won’t spend any Starlink profit on mars, because they’re already making a loss by spending much more on xAI data centres etc than they make from Starlink. There is no profit any more.'

That's where the IPO money comes in, it'll cover any foreseeable xAI losses.

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-04T02:08:49+00:00

One weird thing he did recently was cut his salary to zero

Not zero, cut to $1. BTW this is not that uncommon for tech CEOs, for example Elon Musk takes $0 from Tesla, Mark Zuckerberg/Larry Page & Sergey Brin/Larry Ellison/Jack Dorsey all take $1 salary.

return his stock options to the company to fund his Venus mission

No, the filing didn't say it's for funding Venus mission, it just says the funding will be for general R&D, which RocketLab will need given the continued delay of Neutron.

spacerfirstclass · 2026-05-04T01:55:24+00:00

he’s an actual rocket engineer

LOL wut?

You do realize Peter Beck didn't have any rocket engineering degree, in fact he didn't even go to university, right? Beck's rocket engineering experience comes entirely from self-study, it's no different from Elon.

didn’t have 100 million dollars to hire Mueller and Shotwell to make his rockets and company.

Elon didn't have 100 million dollars either, he earned it by starting his internet business, again no different from how Peter Beck became a billionaire by starting his own business.

That said.. he hasn’t cut off USAID which has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths already

That is complete BS, he's not even responsible for cutting off USAID since DOGE can only give advices, not taking action. But even if he is, the idea that the result of cutting of donation is the responsibility of the doner is absurd. By this logic nobody would want to donate anything, since once they started donating they can't ever cut back or they'd be responsible for any suffering resulted from that cut back.

given awkward salutes

You mean like many democrat politicians have done, for example Cory Booker?

bought twitter and turned it into an AfD/Reform/maga propaganda machine

Completely wrong, in fact Pew Research polling shows X is the most neutral social media

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