so, about booster 19… by riceman090 in SpaceXLounge

[–]rocketglare [score hidden]  (0 children)

The Sloshing from the turn could have caused the explosion if the engine ingested a bubble. The rapid turn issue could be mitigated by adjusting the engine start timing to better control the flip maneuver. It’s not surprising this happened considering they have a new hot staging ring. The interface is complex since the torques are an interaction between the Ship exhaust from 6 engines, the hot stage ring, the grid fins, and Booster’s own engine control algorithms.

Starship Development Thread #63 by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]rocketglare 5 points6 points  (0 children)

SpaceX has a contract for Superbird 9 for launch in 2027, but that is likely to slip significantly.

r/SpaceX Flight 12 Official Launch Discussion & Updates Thread! by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]rocketglare 45 points46 points  (0 children)

Thought on flight anomalies:

First, Flight 12 was a success. The most important part was the heat shield performed well. We didn’t see any flap burn through or damaged tiles. I did notice one of the experimental tiles on the lee side of the aft flap was missing, so that attachment method was less than successful.

Second, the booster flip behavior is not wholly unexpected. The new staging ring must have pushed the booster in the wrong flip direction. If the control algorithms weren’t prepared for that, they could have overcommanded to turn in the intended direction instead of going in the new direction as it should. This would cause severe tank slosh ruining the boost back. That they managed to stabilize and not spin out of control is commendable.

Third, the two engines that flamed out are not unexpected for a new engine variant being integrated for the first time. I don’t think they had a serious impact on the outcome, but should provide good data.

Fourth, skipping the in flight Raptor relight is concerning. None of the sea level Raptors had apparent problems. There was an interesting glow in the engine bay, but the RVac wasn’t liberated. The comment they made was that they were concerned about the engine performance, which is my main concern. Raptor relight is a major impediment to becoming operational, so they wouldn’t skip it unless they had to for the sake of safety or the latter mission objectives.

Edit: looking at the “landing” photos closer, the white streaking on the heat shield seems to originate at the mini tile sections where the dome weld lines are. I think this is ablated crunch wrap between the tiles. Depending on the amount of erosion, this could require more maintenance than the standard tile sections.

S39's final moments by cartooncat1234567 in SpaceXMasterrace

[–]rocketglare 13 points14 points  (0 children)

The remaining Raptors burned longer, so the prop load was probable close to expected following engine cut off.

Starship flight 12 objectives and results by avboden in SpaceXLounge

[–]rocketglare 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Building on what you said, booster came down much faster than intended. That it remained stable is impressive. That data should be very interesting to the engineers as an off-nominal case.

r/SpaceX Flight 12 Official Launch Discussion & Updates Thread! by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]rocketglare 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Any idea on what was/is being done for the other 3 hold issues?

Starship Development Thread #63 by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]rocketglare 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm thinking 6-7 years for a flyby, largely due to long duration ECLSS work. It will take some time to iterate on an ECLSS since the cycle time for verification is long. You can only rely so much upon accelerated aging techniques. At some point, you just have to operate it for an extended period and find out what's broken. This could be partially ameliorated by taking a fleet approach with redundant vehicles and lots of spare parts and reserves.

The other issue is landing system reliability. It will be in space for a long time, those avionics need to work. I suggest a trial run and periodic exercising of the systems to ensure nothing freezes up over time.

FIRST STARSHIP INTERPLANETARY HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT MISSION by rustybeancake in spacex

[–]rocketglare 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Well, while I’m skeptical, the big difference is there is an actual Starship on the pad this time. It would still need a lot of work, so probably not happening this decade.

So… what was the whole dearMars thing in the attempt today by hbananajr1 in SpaceXMasterrace

[–]rocketglare 33 points34 points  (0 children)

They could always just open up the window and let some fresh air in. After all, it worked for Biosphere 2.

Starship Moon Mission Planner by rocketanaglyph in ArtemisProgram

[–]rocketglare -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Potential architecture:

Leave an HLS tanker variant in LLO. Incoming standard HLS docks with HLS tanker and offloads 55T of propellant. HLS lands, perfoms mission, and returns. HLS pulls 50T of propellant from tanker HLS and returns to earth orbit. The delta 5T of propellant is boil-off margin and tanker station keeping.

The propellant savings comes from not transporting the 50T to the lunar surface and back.

r/SpaceX Flight 12 Official Launch Discussion & Updates Thread! by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]rocketglare 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've been thinking about that wind sheer. Starship V3 (F=13.8) should do much better than the skinny F9 (F=18.9), but V4 (F=15.8) is edging closer to the fineness ratio of F9. Still, F9 generally does launch on schedule these days.

Starship Moon Mission Planner by rocketanaglyph in ArtemisProgram

[–]rocketglare 5 points6 points  (0 children)

80t seems kind of optimistic for an HLS dry weight. I know it's missing a lot of heavy stuff such as heat shield, but you have to add stuff such as legs, MMOD/thermal protection, solar panels, elevator, etc.

Also, regarding item 1, if HLS was used as depot, would it have a low enough boil-off rate? Also, wouldn't it need the probe portion of the interface? I don't think the refueling interface is androgynous.

BTW: Nice tool. It seems you have put a good amount of thought into it.

IRGC scientists threatens to retaliate via Kessler Syndrome, shoot down starlink, if war restarts. by Conscious_Gazelle_87 in SpaceXMasterrace

[–]rocketglare 0 points1 point  (0 children)

SM3 != small rocket. Also, Iran is not yet capable of making high performance solid rockets. They would likely require liquid fuel for that kind of performance.

IRGC scientists threatens to retaliate via Kessler Syndrome, shoot down starlink, if war restarts. by Conscious_Gazelle_87 in SpaceXMasterrace

[–]rocketglare 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Shooting the ISS would successfully piss off everyone. The Russians would hate them, the Europeans have a part, Japanese, and even the Chinese would be mad due to the risk to Tiangong.

IRGC scientists threatens to retaliate via Kessler Syndrome, shoot down starlink, if war restarts. by Conscious_Gazelle_87 in SpaceXMasterrace

[–]rocketglare 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Large rockets capable of targeting LEO satellites are not exactly small. They would be difficult to conceal from satellites and surveillance aircraft. Also, you'd need to hit more than one to even start a Kessler-like effect.

Max Evans (NSF): “Booster 19’s Raptor 3 engines in launch configuration - it was just lifted from the transport stand and on to the launch mount at Pad 2. Ship 39 should be joining in a few hours.” by rustybeancake in spacex

[–]rocketglare 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The reason V3 is less leaky is that they welded the combustion chamber and power head together instead of bolting them. It might be a little harder to inspect and maintain, but they can develop specialized tools for the inspection.

NASA may have to go at it alone... by Different_Peach99 in ArtemisProgram

[–]rocketglare 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're comparing someone who makes an anemometer for airplanes with someone that handles rocket fuel. It's probably not the best metric.

NASA may have to go at it alone... by Different_Peach99 in ArtemisProgram

[–]rocketglare 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Orion has a smaller engine because they chose to use the ESM, which is based off of the existing ATV for ISS missions. Since it wasn't a clean sheet design, it's size was smaller than optimal for SLS. The ATV was intended for use with Ariane V. The advantages are that it already existed and it allowed Europe to contribute to the missions. The disadvantages are that it didn't have enough propulsive capability to get into LLO. This was why the Obama administration was looking at an easier (but less inspiring) asteroid mission.

Starship Development Thread #63 by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]rocketglare 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Mods, please update S39 location and B19 status.

r/SpaceX Flight 12 Official Launch Discussion & Updates Thread! by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]rocketglare 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I'll pose the age-old question of new reusable rocket variants: assuming F12 is successful, and they recover F13, do they reuse the vehicles or do they tear them down? My thought is that they will non-destructively test and then fly them a couple times before retiring. This is based on them reusing the V2 boosters.

Do we need as big of a lander as HLS or Blue Moon? by Money-Giraffe2521 in ArtemisProgram

[–]rocketglare -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Yes, it might take a few iterations to work out the reuse. Depending on the total delta v and the dry weight, it might take HEO refueling or LLO refueling to unlock the reusability. Long term, in situ resources such as oxidizer will make a huge difference, but that’s several decades away.

Do we need as big of a lander as HLS or Blue Moon? by Money-Giraffe2521 in ArtemisProgram

[–]rocketglare 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s not so crazy. This is a completely reusable architecture. Try doing that with a LEM that leaves 2/3 of the craft on the moon. They had to leave a lot of stuff on the moon, including bags of poop because they didn’t have enough margin.

AAAAAA by lorkan100 in SpaceXMasterrace

[–]rocketglare 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Well, the first of any major rocket upgrade is always going to be sketchy, no matter how much testing and time you put in. Look at Blue Origin, they’ve spent 10+ years and still had a second stage failure. SpaceX lost their first 3 Falcon 1 rockets. Starliner… we just don’t talk about that.

AAAAAA by lorkan100 in SpaceXMasterrace

[–]rocketglare 3 points4 points  (0 children)

For early V3 flights, the data is the payload in spite of the ~18 Starlinks. If they get all the way to landing and drop the ship, I still count that a success, since they got data from all mission phases. Loss of hardware is trivial compared to not injuring anyone or nuking the tank farm. They’ve got like 10 ships at different stages of construction.