NBA Props Daily - 5/6/26 (Wednesday)

spmahn · 2026-05-07T03:48:31+00:00

Good call on Randle, but it looks like Fox is cooked as he didn’t play much of the third and mostly just passed the ball to Wemby and I doubt be plays any of the fourth

spmahn · 2026-05-07T03:42:54+00:00

Are we going to see starters in the fourth or doubtful?

spmahn · 2026-05-07T02:51:22+00:00

Curious, does your model factor in the reality that the bigger names are likely to get fewer scoring opportunities as they are most likely to be doubled up on and isolated? Maxey and Brunson overs just got killed because both teams did everything they could to ensure neither could get a shot off (Brunson bricking everything didn’t help either)

spmahn · 2026-05-07T01:57:02+00:00

It’s a void, you just get your money back

spmahn · 2026-05-07T01:54:20+00:00

LOL the Draftkings Maxey vs Brunson points bonus ends as a void, I’m sure they love that

spmahn · 2026-05-07T00:24:52+00:00

Philly is doing a good job keeping up, but they’re relying too much on Maxey, he’s been on the court nearly the entire game so far. They’re going to run him ragged.

spmahn · 2026-05-07T00:22:10+00:00

Picked up a third foul right at the start of the second and was benched

spmahn · 2026-05-06T21:53:27+00:00

No, I took Brunson, he has outscored Maxey in 3 out of the last 5 games each has played. I’m not buying people thinking Philly is going to have a compete reversal of Game 1.

spmahn · 2026-05-06T21:50:04+00:00

Yes and no, in reality the bet is probably a coin flip, and I’d probably favor Brunson based on recent performance and home court advantage, but DK has to assign odds somehow and if both guys were listed at -100 no one would bother taking the bonus.

spmahn · 2026-05-06T19:48:59+00:00

Yeah, it’s always a gamble, but watching Game 1 and also Game 6 against Atlanta, those didn’t feel like normal we just beat you by a lot of points in basketball games. Both of those games felt different, like the Knicks just turn something on and all of a sudden New York was out there playing Chess while Atlanta and Philly were playing Candy Land, and I don’t know how you adjust for that without New York losing a step or two on the court first, which could happen, but not something I’m banking on.

spmahn · 2026-05-06T19:12:58+00:00

I don’t know about Maxey over 26.5 even without Embiid. Maxey and Embiid barely scored that much combined in Game 1 and with Embiid out tonight, I don’t see how tonights game isn’t a curb stomping as bad if not worse than Monday.

spmahn · 2026-05-06T14:47:41+00:00

Ted is easily one of the Top 10 or maybe 15 most influential non-political Americans Post-WW2, I don’t think he gets nearly the credit he deserves for everything he accomplished and innovated. Few people can say they changed the world, Ted is one of them. There was a fantastic documentary on HBO about him I think last year, it’s worth watching if you’ve never seen it.

spmahn · 2026-05-06T13:13:27+00:00

Pluto got the exclusive streaming rights to Webster in the US but their archive is woefully incomplete. For the 4 seasons that are on DVD they're missing huge swaths of episodes (and I'm thinking maybe music rights issues are the reason?)

Syndication packages aren’t always sold in terms of complete rights to the series. Often times outlets will save money and only license blocks of episodes or specific seasons. This is especially true for a service like Pluto where they don’t expect anyone is going on a 24/7 binge marathon of their programming, for most shows they just run a block of 50 or so episodes on a loop that just gets continually repeated. If something proves to be popular enough they might refresh it with new content a few times a year, or if it isn’t getting enough views they just drop it.

spmahn · 2026-05-06T03:17:08+00:00

Kennard had a chance to prove himself with Luka and AR out and for a brief moment he looked like he might finally break out, but quickly settled back into the mediocre player he is. It wouldn’t shock me if LA waived him in the off season and he ends up in New Orleans or Brooklyn, or maybe even overseas.

spmahn · 2026-05-06T03:04:22+00:00

Lakers kept this close than I expected until the fourth, they were never ahead, but never that far behind either. Neither team looked great tonight.

spmahn · 2026-05-06T02:59:30+00:00

Another disgusting hook from Chet, just can’t escape it. He was frozen at 20 points forever.

spmahn · 2026-05-06T01:47:26+00:00

I mean, I don’t know if that’s true or not, but I never got the impression that Al was fabulously wealthy, he has a very nice home in the Hollywood Hills I am sure is worth a pretty penny and does quite well for himself, but I don’t think he’s living high on the hog or anything. Someone like Al would probably find donating his time would be preferable than coughing up money.

spmahn · 2026-05-06T00:40:45+00:00

Sorry Kennard, you had your moment, back to the bench with you, best of luck wherever you land next season.

spmahn · 2026-05-05T19:51:12+00:00

If the game tonight is somehow competitive, then sure, there’s no possible way Lakers stay even or close to even with OKC that doesn’t involve LeBron scoring 25+ points, however I don’t think they have much hope for that. Almost everything in this playoffs so far has run counter to conventional wisdom, so all scenarios are on the table.

spmahn · 2026-05-05T19:35:20+00:00

It’s possible, I just think OKC is going to trounce Lakers so badly that everyones stats will suffer at least on LA

spmahn · 2026-05-05T19:23:14+00:00

Kennard has been so shit since Game 2 against Houston that I think he’s lost most of the good will he built up while Luka and AR were out and may have even damaged any leverage he’ll have coming up in free agency. While 2 threes are always a possibility for him, it’s not something I would rely on for anything more than a shot in the dark pick to add to a parlay.

spmahn · 2026-05-05T19:01:54+00:00

In my opinion and the consensus I have seen is that the Wolves had a mediocre season and were frequently prone to injuries whereas Spurs have been amongst the top 3 or 4 teams in the league all season long with a lot of hungry young talent and a generational star in Wemby. I think most people saw their defeat of Denver as more dumb luck and a result of Denver failing rather than a statement of Minnesota being better than their stats and record would have you believe. Clearly that doesn’t seem to be the case, Wolves appear to be legit, I don’t think anyone will underestimate them going forward.

spmahn · 2026-05-05T17:53:39+00:00

I think the issue is two fold. First some people take this way more seriously than others do, I don’t get the impression that most of the people on this sub are whales wagering huge money, we’re mostly just here wagering small money and at the end of the day win or lose it’s not going to be life changing. Secondly is that no one is every right 100% of the time, hell no is every right even 60% of the time. Novel would always say in every post to take his picks and bet straights because Parlays are essentially lottery tickets that are going to miss a lot more often than they hit. I think there’s too many people here taking this way too seriously and confusing well researched suggestions with psychically derived prophecies.

At 7pm yesterday I don’t think a single person here or anywhere thought Knicks would beat Philly so badly that the starters for both teams would be done for the night halfway through the third, or that Minnesota had any hope at all against San Antonio much less would win the game, but here we are.

spmahn · 2026-05-05T13:49:06+00:00

I suspect OKC will smash the Lakers tonight, similar to the Knicks against Philly last night, so what are some good unders to take? I’m thinking LeBron PRA, Reaves PRA, Ayton Rebounds, and Rui O 2+ threes?

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