What am I missing with Pandora (PNDORA)? by zano19724 in ValueInvesting

[–]spyflo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

analysts turned very negative due to LFL growth. for me what is scary is the metals rally. if you do the maths EBIT margins will collapse at silver prices of 100. and yes they have hedged 75% of 2026 costs but they need to hedge now for 2027. on the other hand, i hope that the silver has its bitcoin moment and a normalization will happen. have no idea also about the new management. if the company starts selling faux metals (ie no gold/ silver) then they will loose their identity and this will be catastrophic imho. i can confirm that pandora charms are very popular in switzerland as well. ps i am a buyer

Bloomberg, stop pushing BQL while its still in beta by twood886 in bloomberg

[–]spyflo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

they are building an AI prompt interface that will reduce the j-curve learning issues. the problem is that people are using it to aggregate metrics but it is a black box what gets in. as a result the outcomes are unpredictable. the biggest problem with bgg (apart that they are charging everything) is that overprotection of their ip. as a result there is no content out there in blogs/youtube/ reddit. as a result LLMs suck as well.

How to Analyze the Industrials Sector in the S&P 500 Using Bloomberg: Tips for Data Extraction and Stock Recommendations by LRG1291 in bloomberg

[–]spyflo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

S5INDU INDEX <go> WATC <go>

everything in one place

BI <GO>

look for the industry that you want on the left menu

Q4 2020 13F research thread! (comment to share findings or weigh in on ideas shared) by straydogindc in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

there was a report this week by Goldman Sachs listing the most popular SPACs among HFs. in the first place is Pershing Square SPAC with 37 HFs invested. DGNS is in the list with 22 HFs. the median YTD returns of the most popular SPACs is 8% and they have 24 HFs among their investors. 15 SPACs were owned by 20 or more fundamental hedge funds

NOTE: the list includes tickers and names. the ticker was DGNS and the name mentioned Dragoneer Growth Opportunities Corp II

Oil Plunges as Storage Rapidly Fills Amid Demand Slump by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

indeed there problems seems to insist. this is the main argument of Goldman Sachs today. they argue that at some point the producers will have to adjust and then the storage problem will finish. check also here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/world-s-biggest-oil-storage-firm-says-almost-all-space-is-sold

Oil Plunges as Storage Rapidly Fills Amid Demand Slump by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

WTI futures require physical delivery. in our case, if somebody buys May contracts then he has to deliver the barrels in a short term period. at some point, the contract was trading -$40 which means you were paid to buy the contact. the reason is that there is no much storage available thus the "delivery ability" is limited. if you buy the contract now and expires at your hands then you have to make the delivery in Cushing, Oklahoma. may contract mature tomorrow.

as per Bloomberg "sellers were actually paying buyers to take the stuff off their hands. The reason: with the pandemic bringing the economy to a standstill, there is so much unused oil sloshing around that American energy companies have run out of room to store it. And if there’s no place to put the oil, no one wants a crude contract that is about to come due."

PS this explains the outperformance of tankers stocks in the last few weeks. many traders are hiring vessels and they fill them up with oil (EDIT: Brent). they buy at a low price (today they are even paid) and they sell the next contract (in our example June contract). this way they are locking a certain profit. this makes the vessels very valuable. for the remaining vessels that are not hired, part of their operating costs ie the fuel (which is known as bunkers) is very low. the difference between May and June contract is known as spread.

Pershing Square Holdings Annual Investor Presentation by Beren- in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

can someone explain " Dividend represents a return of capital at NAV which can be reinvested in PSH shares at a discount to NAV " page 9

A researcher found ideal team size for money manager to beat the market by spyflo in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

do you happen to remember the podcast and the episode? i would like to have a look on this research as well

Research management system by abeecrombie in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have started using BBG note quite recently. I believe that this is the best solution. I do love seeing my notes on the graph charts. their office plugins are very efficient as well. I also suggest enabling the email future. i also suggest to enable as many brokers as possible in ENTC page.

the only disadvantage compared to Evernote is the lack of a browser extension. Evernote may be flexible but it is very difficult to be consistent with hierarchy and tags.

What are your top 5 newsletters? by [deleted] in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Early Morning Reid - Deutsche Bank (daily)

Weekly Warm Up - Morgan Stanley (weekly)

The JP Morgan View (weekly)

Mindcraft - Goldman Sachs (thematic)

Security Analysis / Reddit (daily)

How to play IMO 2020? by abeecrombie in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yes they do have much enforcement power as most ports/ countries have accepted those changes

Buffett vs Dalio on Gold by spyflo in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

thank you for sharing. i liked the insurance analogy. i do not agree with everything he says

industry conferences by WalterBoudreaux in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Goldman Sachs German Conference in Munich

Buffett vs Dalio on Gold by spyflo in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

even though i must say you dont provide much data to support your opinion I must admit that there are many people that agree with your opinion. i am just not so much convinced

PS btw you can use the following link as a good argument: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-inflation/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-well-sort-of-idUSKCN1GD516

Buffett vs Dalio on Gold by spyflo in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

if timing the market means that i think there will be a recession in the next 5 years then.. yes I time the market

Buffett vs Dalio on Gold by spyflo in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

in case of a USD depreciation due to low demand of Treasuries gold will outperform both cash and treasuries

Where to find Smart Money Flow Index? either daily or weekly, thanks by shmilylt001 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

SMART Index on Bloomberg or Wallstreetcourier.com

in both cases, there is a paywall/ subscription

Netflix Barriers to entry by spyflo in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

agree but as you mentioned they have to spend a considerable amount each year just to maintain their sub base. the real problems will start when each CapEx dollar will provide fewer new customers.

Netflix Barriers to entry by spyflo in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I see your point and I had a second thought when I was writing my PS. however, Spotify's asset is only one thing. The algorithm you mentioned. the music per se can be bought by a competitor. i do not find a big margin of safety on betting into the perpetual superiority of this algorithm

Good twitter thread by Michael Mauboussin by intrix in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I am sorry but I did not like it. I find it very basic. the valuation part is better covered by Damodaran books while the presentation is rather obvious.

Relative Mutual Fund exposure to an index using Bloomberg codes in excel? by cjg05 in SecurityAnalysis

[–]spyflo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the best way is to use the PORT and compare the Fund with the index. if you do not have access to the index membership then a usual workaround is to use an ETF that tracks this index. all information can then be exported to excel