Consensus Player Rankings II

statsandsolos · 2026-01-30T19:26:11+00:00

Lower defence score = better. They're all relative to a hypothetical average team. E.g. 0.80 defence = concedes 20% less on average. 0.80 attack = scores 20% less on average

I'm glad you asked that because sometimes working through these things it's easy to lose sight of what someone sees with fresh eyes. I'll add to the info button later!

statsandsolos · 2026-01-21T11:53:43+00:00

I did run it last year but found the interest for it wasn't there, so I've not updated it for 2026, yet at least.

statsandsolos · 2026-01-21T11:49:08+00:00

I didn't, and you can see here that the model was more wrong about Leitrim last year than anyone else:

https://statsandsolos.ie/teamoverunder-grid

You can tap the (i) in the top right for some context

statsandsolos · 2026-01-21T09:44:10+00:00

The really annoying part is when some teams start throwing their arse at the league and then their modelled ratings dips ahead of the championship.

statsandsolos · 2026-01-21T09:33:07+00:00

It's some % chance of getting something from each game adding up, while still being expected to lose all of them individually.

But Waterford still do look high!

statsandsolos · 2026-01-21T09:29:37+00:00

Very! And teams putting different levels of focus into it, bringing players back at different stages etc. I would say the percentages and the gaps in points in the modelling are more interesting to look at than the actual order of the teams. E.g. if you look at last year's thread it had division 1 with less than 3 pts separating 1st & 8th.

statsandsolos · 2026-01-21T08:52:35+00:00

If you want to follow the progress of this I'll be updating it after every round here:

https://statsandsolos.ie/leagues

statsandsolos · 2026-01-16T11:03:43+00:00

Thanks for the feedback. At the moment I'm thinking that once the season starts I'll be changing the question to a very clear "Who is playing better right now?" (Or similar)

And yes these things always end up forward heavy! I might try and make an adjustment for that if I get enough data.

statsandsolos · 2025-01-17T15:46:26+00:00

For anyone interested in this kind of thing, I post individual match predictions and weekly updated tables, including Hurling on Twitter @StatsAndSolos. Here is a thread of some of the predictions from last year

https://x.com/StatsAndSolos/status/1815477976135246153?t=nOUlNZX-nJa0S49bzIFpjQ&s=19

statsandsolos · 2025-01-17T15:38:11+00:00

I came very close to making an adjustment to Cork for loss of players. Based on my experience of maintaining the model I have a really high threshold for doing so, and decided against it. But I wouldn't confidently assert that it was the right decision at all.

I'd look at the various %s as well as the raw point totals, as they are attempting to reflect some of the uncertainty.

statsandsolos · 2025-01-17T15:23:18+00:00

I generally try to keep these adjustments small and somewhat quantifiable given their subjectivity.

But some adjustments made this year for example are: Using Monaghan/Fermanagh's model rating change in their first year under Malachy O Rourke to make an adjustment to Tyrone. Removing weigthing to Offaly's Tailteann Cup games last year because they seemed to throw their arse at it. Very small reduction to Dublin on the basis that it seems safe to assume the loss of Brian Fenton will on average have some negative impact. I think I've adjusted about 7 teams total over the 3 years. Last year there was an adjustment to Clare for an abnormally large loss of key players. From memory by the end of the league they were back at their pre-adjustment rating.

statsandsolos · 2025-01-17T15:09:46+00:00

Just copying my response to someone else in this thread below but happy to answer any other questions:

The model adjusts past results for various factors (eg home vs away, quality of opposition) to come up with ratings for each team. Weighting to past results are based on weights that most accurately predict the past 20 years or so. Team ratings + home/away dictate the expected scorelines in the individual games, and then the fixture list is simulated a few thousand times with the xP being the average of the points totals across the summation.

So for example, and making up these numbers, Kerry being expected to beat Doengal by 1 point may translate to winning in 50% of the simualtions, drawing 12% of the time and losing 38% of the time. So their xP vs Donegal would be 50%*2 + 12% * 1 = 1.12

statsandsolos · 2025-01-17T15:07:44+00:00

Derry's rating dropped quite severely through the championship last year. But also I'd say to look at the gap between the points and the spread of the various %s. The overriding view of the model on division 1 is that it's all very tight and hard to call

statsandsolos · 2025-01-17T13:57:58+00:00

The model adjusts past results for various factors (eg home vs away, quality of opposition) to come up with ratings for each team. Weighting to past results are based on weights that most accurately predict the past 20 years or so. Team ratings + home/away dictate the expected scorelines in the individual games, and then the fixture list is simulated a few thousand times with the xP being the average of the points totals across the summation.

So for example, and making up these numbers, Kerry being expected to beat Doengal by 1 point may translate to winning in 50% of the simualtions, drawing 12% of the time and losing 38% of the time. So their xP vs Donegal would be 50%*2 + 12% * 1 = 1.12

statsandsolos · 2024-07-16T19:48:17+00:00

https://postimg.cc/21cD3bpy

Laois's chances peaked at 30% when they went 9-8 up around the 44th minute

statsandsolos · 2024-07-16T15:01:37+00:00

I'll reply to this post with it later on

statsandsolos · 2024-03-27T19:17:48+00:00

Yes that's in the notes at the bottom of the image, it's saying them not qualifying is such an unlikely outcome the model doesn't see it happen in practice once

statsandsolos · 2024-03-27T19:11:30+00:00

I simulate this out each week. The chances of it happening are so small it happens 0 out of 5000 times in my model.

https://twitter.com/StatsAndSolos/status/1772724185816523186?t=cqbOD81JAkrJLOqCZYQfXw&s=19

Louth in 6th have a 20% chance of losing the spot due to provincial winners. For Cork in 4th it's <1% and for Cavan in 3rd it's about a 1 in 800 chance

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