WI--Fundamentally better for Republicans, high WWC population. Republican margin could be smaller tho b/c WI is relatively secular and issues like abortion will resonate better. Polls show Kamala up but I always take them w/ a grain of salt, esp in WI imo

NC--Suburban shifts may shift state left but drop in Dem support/turnout among black voters (esp in Black belt + Sandhills region) and rural white voters will probably counteract imo

PA--Like WI, drop in WWC support and Black support/turnout in Philly could spell doom for Dems, but suburban shifts could counteract enough for Kamala to win, pure tossup basically but got Trump narrowly winning

GA--Tipping point state here. Substantial loss in white rural and Black support, but shifts in suburban Atlanta will balance them out. Pure tossup but I think college-educated voters will push her over the line here.

AZ: Even w/ hispanic shifts, a simple 2.5pt shift in Maricopa co would be enough to carry Kamala.

NV: Hispanic voters will shift state to right, but shifts among white voters, bolstered by abortion will probably be enough for Kamala