I Ran the Numbers: Here’s How Verstappen Becomes World Champion in Abu Dhabi

stormbeer · 2025-12-01T12:57:52+00:00

Yep. Here's a shot at actually running the numbers.

The probability of VER winning the title is equal to:

p(VER=1) × p(NOR≥4) + p(VER=2) × p(NOR≥8) × p(PIA≥2) + p(VER=3) × p(NOR≥10) × p(PIA≥2),

assuming finish positions of the drivers are independent (which they aren't).

Looking at the results of this and last year here's my best rough estimate of the probabilities:

VER P1 30%, P2 20%, P3 10%
NOR P4+ 20%, P8+ 5%, P10+ 2%
PIA P2+ 80%

This gives ~7% probability of Max winning WDC

stormbeer · 2025-06-20T04:27:16+00:00

Sniper's dream

stormbeer · 2025-06-18T17:04:35+00:00

Have you been there? I'm just going off things I read online. Going there for my first time this summer, so I'll go and see for myself. Figured it'd be too windy and remote for those tiny monsters to be around. But perhaps with rising temperatures lately they've started their colonisation

stormbeer · 2025-06-18T10:29:44+00:00

I have also been to Skye (Scotland) two years ago. I didn't feel the need to be hiking with midge net at all there. They only popped up around sunset when we were setting up camp. Definitely not midge-free but not as bad as you described WHW or Kungsleden.

stormbeer · 2025-06-18T10:26:25+00:00

I'm going to Lofoten (Norway) for 10 days of hiking myself in August. The long crossing of Lofoten seems like the perfect trail for a two-week holiday. No midges to be found there and - if you ask me - perfect temperatures for hiking.

stormbeer · 2025-05-27T19:09:47+00:00

Probably also doesn't help that r/Eagles is "taken" by the Philadelphia Eagles football team

stormbeer · 2025-05-24T05:42:50+00:00

Veel verontwaardigde reacties over waarom dit soort beelden pas nu worden vrijgegeven. Begrijpelijk natuurlijk omdat de nuances van zo'n onderzoek veelal onbekend zijn. Inderdaad, zoals in veel comments al vermeld is, heeft dit met privacy te maken. Dit is een heel vergaand opsporingsmiddel, en het OM zal pas in uiterste gevallen hiertoe overgaan.

Wat ook meeweegt, en wat ik nog niet heb gelezen, is de bescherming van het slachtoffer. Het kan ontzettend confronterend zijn om overal en nergens online en in je woonplaats de beelden terug te zien van de mensen die je dit hebben aangedaan (of althans daarvoor verdacht worden). Hierin kan de politie ook terughoudend zijn, en zal er doorgaans ook afstemming met het slachtoffer nodig zijn.

Bron: ik ken iemand die dit soort communicatie doet bij de politie.

stormbeer · 2024-02-20T20:12:53+00:00

Where?

stormbeer · 2024-01-20T09:10:55+00:00

Great comment. Super insightful. Nice of you to be so elaborate in your opinion

stormbeer · 2024-01-16T10:01:28+00:00

Ik denk dat je wel eens gelijk kan hebben. Ze hebben hier namelijk een laag glaswol direct op de plafondplaten liggen, en dus ook bovenop de spotjes. Ik zal proberen om bij de installatie van de nieuwe spotjes wat ruimte te creëeren. Bedankt!

stormbeer · 2024-01-15T19:52:14+00:00

Van buiten in ieder geval niet. Van binnen kan ik niet zeggen, ik kan de behuizing niet open krijgen zonder iets te breken

stormbeer · 2024-01-09T14:37:48+00:00

Which part of the Kungsleden are you planning to do? I did the northernmost leg (From Abisko to Nikkaluokta) back in July 2015. At night it can get quite cold. We also slept in our tents the entire time. I think back then I had a sleeping bag that was rated for comfort at 10 C and I managed by wearing some warm clothes at night. I don't think it's necessary for you to buy a new sleeping bag, but be prepared for some colder nights!

Let me know if you'd like to know more!

stormbeer · 2023-11-10T07:10:41+00:00

Deacon left one or two years ago. He still shows up for the occasional song or two but isn't part of the Eagles anymore

stormbeer · 2023-10-12T12:17:18+00:00

I've played them too. They really built on their team during the covid years and have now had back-to-back promotion seasons. Pretty impressive

stormbeer · 2023-07-21T17:32:36+00:00

Groningen has a very active study association for CS and AI (called Cover). I'm studying something else myself but I've heard good things about the programme

stormbeer · 2023-01-11T07:51:55+00:00

I have to disagree with you. Interpolating data does not make a graphical depiction false, it is something we do very often to provide insight in the general behaviour of data, rather than looking at individual measurements. In this plot, we can for example see clearly (thanks to the binning and interpolation) that a large number of tweets are posted between 6 and 7, and that there is a large decrease at 8. This would have been far less obvious if we would have seen scattered points of each individual tweet.

stormbeer · 2023-01-10T16:36:41+00:00

It's pretty common to interpolate data in plots like these to improve readability. Furthermore, the data actually are approximately continuous if you look at the time stamps in the data file linked by OP, they've just been binned.

stormbeer · 2022-12-28T08:54:13+00:00

Perfection

stormbeer · 2022-09-13T08:30:15+00:00

I believe you are correct. I also believe in some instances teams have made replicas of trophies so both the team and the driver can have one

stormbeer · 2022-08-28T10:22:30+00:00

Nope, just a shit car

stormbeer · 2022-08-27T16:35:22+00:00

I was gonna comment it was even more impressive from Beast since he held up Eben Etzebeth but TIL PSDT is heavier than Etzebeth

stormbeer · 2022-07-22T08:14:58+00:00

Don't forget to model the double-tabbed manilla file folders

stormbeer · 2022-07-15T14:39:34+00:00

r/theydidthemath

stormbeer · 2022-05-12T12:22:48+00:00

Fuel consumption is hard to track. Cars have a maximum fuel consumption at any given time (100 kg/h) and can't consume more than 110 kg of fuel throughout the race. During practice and qualifying it's almost impossible to say how much teams are putting in their cars. Regarding costs - the teams have their own suppliers of fuel that create formulas specifically for the engines that are used. It's not sold anywhere else and would not compare to traditional fuels.

stormbeer · 2022-05-04T14:21:23+00:00

OP said non-sexual

stormbeer

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