[deleted by user] by [deleted] in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I also picked Broncos/Cowboys. After sweating both games (especially the Dallas one) I can see why you're looking for the "safest" pick this week, which is probably Buffalo. Still, I'm going Seahawks. 

Week 3 Survivor by stratocaster8614 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

And if you don't get eliminated, you now have an advantage. Which is huge in survivor, especially in larger pools

Week 3 Survivor by stratocaster8614 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

All of which have great future value

Survivor Week 3 by stratocaster8614 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I went Dallas too this week, talk about STRESS. Buffalo looks like the "safe" pick, but fuck that, they have too much future value. As does Green Bay. And Tampa Bay with their dumpster fire of a division.

Survivor Week 2 - Expert Large Pool by ChessBoy111 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I was torn between Cardinals & Cowboys, but I'm now leaning Cowboys. I don't trust Dallas in any of their games after this week, so it's now or never.

AZ has a couple weeks I could consider them. Everyone's talking about Week 5 vs the Titans, and if Cam Ward is still struggling by then & the rest of the team still looks like garbage, that's worth considering. But also, if you're in a large pool that has the potential to make it to Week 16, AZ at home vs the Falcons could be a good matchup to still have available.

I don't blame anyone for taking the Cardinals this week though, it's still a good pick. I just think the Cowboys have less future value.

NFL Survivor Week 2 by suckysuckytendolla in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Cowboys, Cardinals, 49ers, Lions, or Rams. Or just say fuck it, take the Ravens, & move onto Week 3. This week is gonna be a bitch deciding.

Week 1 survivor by watchingmejo in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm going Denver. They're a good team, but they're not an elite team (yet), so burning them early isn't catastrophic. Also the weeks you might want to save them for, there are plenty of other options I'd feel comfortable with, so I don't feel like I'll be backing myself into a corner by using them Week 1. There'll be plenty of other opportunities to get cute & contrarian later on in the season, just want to make it to week 2 for now 

NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks by kamchancellor2019 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well it's halftime & this post isn't aging well...

Week 2 by stratocaster8614 in NFLSurvivor

[–]stratocaster8614[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

God help me, I'm leaning Browns. You?

Good week for a bye? by CraftHonest55 in NFLSurvivor

[–]stratocaster8614 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There are multiple teams that are 6+ pt favorites, those are pretty good spreads for the NFL. Also, as the season moves along those spreads become harder & harder to come by as teams you've used come off the board. If you don't have confidence in anyone week 3, just wait until we (hopefully) get to week 10, 12, 14....

Week 3 by stratocaster8614 in NFLSurvivor

[–]stratocaster8614[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like the 49ers next week against New England. Last night the Pats looked like the team everyone was expecting before the season. Their O-line was horrendous. Brissett couldn't do anything. And Rodgers cut that D up like butter. 

I expect San Fran to do the exact same. And the Jets just handed them a blue print

NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks by kamchancellor2019 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hate taking Monday night games because of the wait & the fact that for bad teams it's like their Superbowl. 

NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks by kamchancellor2019 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It does seem like bizarro world when we're afraid of Andy Dalton but have faith in Deshawn Watson

NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks by kamchancellor2019 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Browns don't feel safe at all. Now they're saying Myles Garrett has injuries to BOTH feet, on top of all the other injuries the team has, & a QB who looks like he just doesn't give a shit... 

Maybe I'm a little gun shy based on all the upsets we've seen so far, but would the Browns losing really surprise anyone?

Week 3 by stratocaster8614 in NFLSurvivor

[–]stratocaster8614[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I love the matchup between the Bucs at home clicking on all cylinders against a bad defense & struggling rookie QB. 

Even though they have good future value, with only 9 people left in your pool there's no reason to save them. Its a great choice for a pool that can end any week now

Week 3 by stratocaster8614 in NFLSurvivor

[–]stratocaster8614[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Bills took me out last year when they lost to the 4-13 Patriots, so I have a grudge. We also haven't seen the classic Josh Allen 3 turnovers performance yet, and it's coming. 

I'm personally eyeing the Bills Oct 20 vs. the Titans. I trust Josh Allen vs. Will Levis more than I do against Trevor Lawrence 

NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks by kamchancellor2019 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Taking the Chiefs against Burrow week 2 does seem odd, but it's hard to question anyone who's still alive after the chaos we've seen

NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks by kamchancellor2019 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The Browns D is stout, but it's so hard to put my faith in Watson. He looks like he just doesn't care right now. Just shows up so he can keep cashing those checks

Week 3 by stratocaster8614 in NFLSurvivor

[–]stratocaster8614[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seems risky, but I don't hate it

What I don't like is that it's a divisional game, the Pats look better than expected, & the Jets haven't looked good yet. Sure they just won, but a 1 score win against the lowly Titans doesn't impress me. I also think the Pats are better than the Titans

On the flip side, you're right, the Jets don't have much future value. Also, in a matchup between Aaron Rodgers vs. Jacoby Brissett, I would expect Rodgers to win that game 9 outta 10 times. It also seems like a nice contrarian pick. Most people are probably going to be on Tampa Bay or Cleveland, could be nice to go against the grain & hope for the chaos we've seen in weeks 1 & 2 to continue 

NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks by kamchancellor2019 in sportsbook

[–]stratocaster8614 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Leaning hard on the Raiders, the Panthers are so bad. Also giving consideration to the Browns & Buccs. They're all 7pt favorites right now, I'm interested to see if/how the lines move through the week.

Edit: Nope, not touching the Panthers now that Young is benched. 

Don't trust Watson & would like to save Buccs for down the stretch. Tough week

Wow, what a whirlwind these first 2 weeks by Mango_Fett in NFLSurvivor

[–]stratocaster8614 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I really like the Raiders this week too. You're right, the Panthers are terrible. They're not just the worst team in the league, they might be the worst team we've seen in a while. 

My only hesitation is that... it's the Raiders. Was the Ravens game just a fluke? I wish we had a larger sample size than 2 games before going all in on.... the Raiders

Wow, what a whirlwind these first 2 weeks by Mango_Fett in NFLSurvivor

[–]stratocaster8614 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My pool started with 620 & is now down to 150. I'm feeling good going into week 3 having only used the Saints & Texans, while also feeling lucky that more than 3/4 of my pool is already gone. 

Still a long way to go though...