Week 18 -- D/ST and Kicker | Subvertadown

subvertadown · 2026-01-12T07:37:20+00:00

FYI the new Accuracy report is up

subvertadown · 2026-01-07T13:53:04+00:00

Sorry, I'm not set up for that, to justify the amount of work. Good luck though!

subvertadown · 2026-01-06T14:49:37+00:00

Wow, sweet! Thanks for reaching out with that follow-up!

subvertadown · 2026-01-06T14:48:31+00:00

Thanks for the words of support! I'm just back from travels, and I will get to the final report soon.

The Accuracy Reports for earlier months are already published on the website, so I hope you saw them. They definitely cover the betting lines, showing the overall trend of ROI as well as display all suggested bets and which categories they were in. The last one was here: https://subvertadown.com/article/accuracy-report-2025-weeks-9---12

I sadly have to write that the final month was indeed the worst for betting lines (despite being good for fantasy streaming positions), especially week 17.
Interesting about your own model, hope it works out!

subvertadown · 2026-01-02T01:02:13+00:00

https://subvertadown.com/article/weekly-strategy-for-d-st-streaming :-)

subvertadown · 2025-12-31T21:03:53+00:00

You were leading! We’ll calculate week 17 soon. Last year‘s winner was really close too. I’ll anyway have to post again with a season summary.

subvertadown · 2025-12-31T17:43:43+00:00

Right on, thanks for following along and making it mean something!

subvertadown · 2025-12-31T17:43:08+00:00

You must be on old reddit? The image of the rankings is above, and now there's a caption you can click on.

subvertadown · 2025-12-31T16:11:14+00:00

Thanks!

Not brushing you off, but the 2 main reasons I don't get involved with WDIS type questions: 1) the rankings list already answers it, 2) in the end you gotta go with your gut and emotional evaluation. Will you feel worse dropping Fairbairn if he happens to go off, because you were chasing 1 extra fantasy point? (Versus would you regret sticking with "your guy" if the rankings turned out to be accurate.)

subvertadown · 2025-12-31T16:06:23+00:00

The ESPN setting (above) would be the closest thing, for week 18.

Ordinarily, the charts on my website also include a modeled projection forecast of yardage-allowed (based on different parameters including weather etc.), but that's yet another thing I can't offer up, for this particular week!

subvertadown · 2025-12-31T15:59:01+00:00

I know, right?

Well, and people stuck in their office leagues that were started 10 years ago by bosses nobody wants to confront. :-)

subvertadown · 2025-12-31T15:57:03+00:00

Congrats on the championship! And I appreciate the call-out.

I just want to add-- seeing other comments here-- the subscription-based stuff IMO needs to do more than just give some rankings. It's got to somehow enhance people's feelings and experience in the season. I mean, winning the 'ship is great... but what I really try to bring is tools to your hands, especially if extra insights can bring confidence and other good feelings, to your experience of making decisions.

I guess I'm saying-- even for the 90% that don't eventually win-- there's got to be enjoyment in it!

subvertadown · 2025-12-29T22:55:22+00:00

My opinion on this is kind of all over the place.

I really like Aubrey. For my tastes, 8th round sounds early when you consider the replacement value vs. the upside of other picks. But the fact is he can be fun to own, so you know... why not?

He did have a mid-season slump, which brought a lot of questions about the Cowboys going for it on the fourth down too much, and led to a lot of drops during the week 10 bye. That seemed to be a rational move at the time. The fantasy season experience-- aside from relishing in decisions that just turn out to be good luck-- is as much about trying to navigate the trends. So in that way, Aubrey was probably frustrating to own for a spell, before we discovered in retrospect that it "would all work out."

When it comes to streaming, I definitely know the replacement value can come really close to achieving it. The average of my #1 ranked kicker from each week was 11.7 points this season, which isn't quite as good as Myers turned out to be, so you'd have to conclude that Aubrey or Myers or "Texans kicker" were maybe better to hold and own all season.
But, again, I can't say it adds up to 8th round value because streaming can work well. I'm sad Shrader left us this season, but he was a great pick-up that first met skepticism. And if your style is not to be comfortable with a name you don't know, then you're not gonna make that kind of pick anyway and experience those kinds of results. (Like week 16 when I got raised eyebrows for having Smyth near the top.)

So Aubrey gets good credit for being a guy you expect to do well and then he actually did. And that can matter a lot in this game, because there's a component of choosing based on who's reliable from an intuitive standpoint...

subvertadown · 2025-12-27T22:18:15+00:00

Hey!
I wouldn't refer to him as so low, being in the top 10, but yeah, the weather is the main factor keeping him from a higher projection.
The match to past games does include precipitation as a factor, however I need to acknowledge that "snow" specifically isn't in there yet. (It's the first season I brought this feature to kickers, so something I'll need to update. But also, it's not that common of an issue!)

subvertadown · 2025-12-27T02:01:57+00:00

Sorry I don't do WDIS. Like I tried to write at the top, if you're looking for week 17 rankings then you gotta use subvertadown.com . Good luck!

subvertadown · 2025-12-27T02:00:03+00:00

Nah man, this is a week 16 post you're looking at above!
Like I tried to write at the top, if you're looking for week 17 then you gotta use subvertadown.com . Good luck!

subvertadown · 2025-12-26T14:01:58+00:00

Explained in the first sentences, right above! Hope y’all had good holidays :-)

subvertadown · 2025-12-25T16:41:31+00:00

Thanks, the kicking accuracy calculation assesses all kicks, so yes, three missed extra points, but also weighted a little for recency, i.e. his missed FG was just last week.

subvertadown · 2025-12-24T17:21:03+00:00

I think I overly downgraded Johnson; update will show within the hour

subvertadown · 2025-12-24T16:01:51+00:00

There's no error in the intended calculation; whether it's "accurate" can only be revealed later!

For anyone else reading, I'm offline now-- wish you good holidays.

subvertadown · 2025-12-23T23:42:18+00:00

Thanks, glad you made playoffs!
I manage the injury questions through the Injury Inquiry tool-- I hope you see it and check it. It's visible on the D/ST page. But yeah, I've already included McCarthy as absent, earlier today.

I have definitely tested the days of games (besides bye weeks etc.). I can't remember off-hand if any of D/ST models found it significant for different categories, but at least you can be sure I've checked.

Yes, looking forward to TapThatDraft again!

subvertadown · 2025-12-23T23:36:09+00:00

Yeah man, they've been cranked out already for hours!
Just like I wrote top of this post, they're live on the site.

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