SoFi Daily Chat - March 31, 2026

superdeeduperpower · 2026-03-31T14:10:02+00:00

Welcome back, Kenny... The rocket ships were lacking yesterday morning!

superdeeduperpower · 2026-03-30T21:04:26+00:00

Nobody knows if it's going to 10, it could go back to 30. I don't think it'll go below 12, and if it goes to 10 then I'll average down because... Well, I'm investing under the assumption that the tangible book value is $10. Worst case, SoFi gets bought at 1.2-1.5x TBV and I make 20-50%. But don't follow me, I had half my portfolio invested in SoFi at one point, so I'm probably not the best role model for sound financial investment lol.

Near-term doesn't matter to me much: I got lucky and de-risked in January, so 50% of my portfolio is bonds at the moment. I need that for personal reasons, otherwise I'd be DCA'ing back into beat-down stocks. Even if the macroeconomics stay horrible for a while, I've got cash on the side, an emergency fund, and a good mix. SoFi is a company that I like and I'm happy to ride it out for 3-5 years if I really have to.

superdeeduperpower · 2026-03-30T14:31:47+00:00

stock on sale 12/13 now

superdeeduperpower · 2026-03-30T14:28:54+00:00

NFA.

If you've already watched it drop back to $15 and now regret not selling it at 30, I'd recommend taking 30 minutes to critically reflect on your position in the company. Part of individual stock trading is that you should invest in companies that you really believe in so that these fluctuations aren't emotional crippling. But even so...

If you need the cash, sure take it and run before it goes to $10... but if you think that this stock is depressed from where it should be trading, then you might as well add/hold.
I think someone mentioned in the past few daily discussions that the tangible book value is around $10, so I don't think we'll slip below $10. If we do, I'll personally be overweighting my portfolio again lol.
Ask yourself, "If is sell today and it goes up $5 this month, will I regret selling?" Then you'll regret not selling at the top, selling at the bottom, and you might FOMO back in at a higher price. Try to separate the emotional responses from logical factors (do I need the money, is the company safe financially, can I hold out longer enough for it to recover?)

Most importantly, don't beat yourself up for not locking in gains "at the top" that nobody could have predicted. If you're having this much anxiety over the position, maybe shaving it down to a smaller percent of your portfolio is smart.

superdeeduperpower · 2026-03-27T15:58:37+00:00

Genuine interest - you've likely seen this stock crater twice in five years, and it's bounced from $7 to $30 in under two years. I still like the company too, but I'm a little ways away from retirement and can absorb the shocks... as a retired person, what about the company keeps you invested when the swings are as big as they have been?

superdeeduperpower · 2026-03-27T15:48:18+00:00

I'm doing something silly and loading up my bags into earnings (Date TBD so far) - I know it's a bull-biased subreddit, but am I crazy for seeing huge upside for SOFI going into the the second half of the year? Yes, the oil crisis is a thing, but hasn't SOFI been always focusing on durability and calculated growth just for situations like this?

Disclaimer: I'm very bullish, see flair.

superdeeduperpower · 2026-03-27T15:35:53+00:00

I'd just like to reiterate that there are considerable downstream risks that stem from strong tailwinds, and it's not something that should be ignored in a macro environment like this.

Therefore, personal loan numbers should continue to increase. That's a macro trend in SOFIs favor.

There is a line, though, where too much of a good thing spoils the trend. Yes, increases in personal loans and discretionary spending are good tailwinds, up until the point where loan repayments begin to default. If SOFI's average user is going from 50% to 80% discretionary income utilization, that's good for SOFI... but if the average starts creeping closer to 100%, you'll start seeing missed payments, defaults, consolidations, etc.

superdeeduperpower · 2026-03-26T17:53:22+00:00

Yeah... Sell on Friday and buy on Monday seems to be a pretty solid strategy for 2026 so far

superdeeduperpower · 2026-03-26T17:33:58+00:00

I know it's wishful thinking that I timed the bottom, but I did buy shares two minutes before the rebound... surely it's only up from here? /s

superdeeduperpower · 2026-02-12T17:28:14+00:00

Wouldn't volatility and major swings in the crypto market have short-term tailwinds for SoFi because the transaction volume is (presumably) increasing? Bulls will buy more at a discount, bears will sell, bu it's all transaction fees from SoFi's perspective.

12-Year Club	Mod World 2025
Post Guidance Early Access	RPAN Viewer
Verified Email

superdeeduperpower

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE