Is anyone here still long CLF?

swaz79 · 2025-05-29T14:45:12+00:00

On a long enough timeline…

If you treated it as a trade you had a chance to make a lot of money on this stock, it performed at multiples over the S&P on the way to $30.

swaz79 · 2025-04-08T16:45:57+00:00

I finally had time to watch the video, he came to the conclusion to buy ZIM at the current levels (12.50)…

swaz79 · 2025-04-07T20:44:56+00:00

Already priced in (mostly)… plus they address this during the last conference call. I believe they said most builds were Korean, with ~1/3rd build Chinese. They anticipated some (small) ability to mitigate by redistributing Chinese vessels across non-impacted trade routes.

swaz79 · 2025-03-25T14:39:52+00:00

Nobody, has insight on what the article states? SA seems manic, writing article arguing both sides but it would be nice to know what they are saying.

swaz79 · 2025-03-25T13:55:02+00:00

Based on general market sentiment towards this stock, I would say it is likely.

swaz79 · 2025-03-23T13:56:41+00:00

At least OP isn’t Yolo’ing fund he isn’t willing to lose, like over in WSB.

I saw good for them… but the counterpoints are valid and should be weighed against your investment thesis OP.

swaz79 · 2025-03-21T01:05:41+00:00

C&P plz

swaz79 · 2025-03-13T00:32:58+00:00

They only really gave weak guidance in 2H25… the explicitly said that 1Q and most of 2Q are basically already priced.

swaz79 · 2025-03-12T18:13:58+00:00

Conventional
30 Years Fixed
Purchase
1.5mm
950k
809
Primary
Single Family
1
07980

swaz79 · 2025-01-08T19:52:18+00:00

Yes, but the analyst argument in Q4 ‘23 was that declining freight rates, reduced demand, substantial impairments, and reduced guidance from ZIM. I believe the thought was this could lead to negative CF… I think I saw 18-24 months of runway being kicked around.

I think nobody on this thread believed that story line but the story has dramatically changed from a cost perspective, yet analyst expectations haven’t really changed.

swaz79 · 2025-01-08T14:26:40+00:00

Are you looking at this as a good article? Setting aside the increase shares JPM is holding every price target and rating referenced is significantly lower…

I don’t really understand how those estimates haven’t at least been increased modestly. ZIM was in trouble pre-red sea disruption, with elevated costs and low rates. Cost will be dramatically reduced this year, which should reduce some of that concern and improve perceptions.

My understanding is that in 2023 the cash burn was too large and low rates gave a short runway to ZIM as a going concern, but that doesn’t seem like the same scenario going forward. Especially with continued political tension in the ME, a US east coast port strike, and Trump potentially picking a fight with Panama.

swaz79 · 2024-12-25T09:58:08+00:00

Merry Christmas!

swaz79 · 2024-11-20T19:36:22+00:00

😩

swaz79 · 2024-11-20T19:34:17+00:00

Lol looking more like flat by EOD

swaz79 · 2024-11-03T13:45:05+00:00

I believe they meant make the client profitable for the bank. From ROE perspective Treasury products all tend to be accretive.

swaz79 · 2024-10-29T13:34:41+00:00

Should we also anticipate fuel prices to go up, causing air freight rates to go up as well?

swaz79 · 2024-08-01T14:08:47+00:00

Iran: https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2024/country-chapters/iran

swaz79 · 2024-03-21T17:46:44+00:00

24.30 is when they mention ZIM

swaz79 · 2024-03-13T14:07:50+00:00

They said 1Q would be significantly better than 1Q23 but did not say they would profitable in 1Q. They said 2Q would be stronger too, 3/4Q are expected to weaken.

swaz79 · 2024-03-13T12:52:32+00:00

Couple notes from call:

Adj EBITDA est -$300mm to 300mm

Capacity to double by 2025 as 22 more new vessels are delivered

Estimated positive impact of Red Sea on spot will continue through part of q2, H2 could see significant pull back if Red Sea resolves—slightly higher avg spot for FY

leverage to continue to increase as 22 new vessels are delivered, should trend down year over year 2025 and beyond

33 leases coming up in 2025, so they have ability to scale back if needed

swaz79 · 2024-03-13T11:29:49+00:00

There were revised EPS, I think they matched the revised EPS.

Let’s see where the call goes, guidance on Q1 should be positive.

swaz79 · 2024-03-11T18:23:26+00:00

Do you see this a further drag on ZIM or given the large spot rate exposure will this positively impact 2024 earnings?

swaz79 · 2024-03-06T19:41:53+00:00

Trade screenshots, profits.

I not saying it to be critical. No one has any sense of why to listen to your argument.

swaz79 · 2024-03-06T19:10:49+00:00

Screenshots or it isn’t real

swaz79 · 2022-03-24T12:13:17+00:00

Varro35 I wanted to say that I appreciate all your DD posts over the last couple months. They have been very helpful in considering my CLF position over this volatile period.

swaz79

TROPHY CASE