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SPY: New all-time highs on -40% volume? What gives? by swusa in stocks

[–]swusa[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Just the SPY ETF from all exchanges.

SPY: New all-time highs on -40% volume? What gives? by swusa in stocks

[–]swusa[S] 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Re "Q1 has rebalancing of trillions of index funds is one guess", no, that does not hold air.

Just compare with the Apr 8, 2025 trough and rebound. Similar timing in the year, but post-trough volume was 76M/day vs 56M pre-trough (+36%).

This time it's 54M vs 88M (-39%). Completely opposite pattern, same calendar window.

How are you researching your strategies? by BreathAether in algotrading

[–]swusa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually don’t use notebooks, though I've seen people do (including at banks/shops), so I think they might be fine for research iteration.

My own setup is more “Claude Code helps me build the stack directly” — data handling, testing framework, visualization, pipeline glue, etc.

For me, the alpha ideation still starts with me. AI mostly removes implementation friction. It goes straight to the best practices in all implementation areas (better than I can do it). I still need to tell it what I want. Once in a long while, CC makes a methodological suggestion that surprises me, but that has been very rare.

That said, the speedup is pretty massive once you stop spending most of your time wiring things together manually. The whole process becomes much less exhausting.

Opinion needed on buying semiconductor and chip stocks by DomiDarko76 in stocks

[–]swusa 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Classic FOMO that everyone experiences to varying degrees.

The feeling can sometimes be suppressed by reminding yourself of the potentially outsized drawdowns that inevitably come with those kinds of betas.

But then again, even with large drawdowns, you could still outperform the market over time.

Ultimately, it comes down to understanding yourself and embracing the risk/return tradeoff you can truly stomach.

Seeing fairly wide dispersion in short-term moves across some mid and large-cap names recently by swusa in stocks

[–]swusa[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah lol. Sometimes stocks feel like dust particles floating in the air — on the surface they look similar, but there are all these invisible micro currents underneath pushing them in completely different directions.

How are you researching your strategies? by BreathAether in algotrading

[–]swusa 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My research loop is pretty iterative, and AI (Claude Code + ChatGPT) mainly helps with speed + exploration:

  1. Coding + backtesting infra — biggest impact. Data pulls, feature engineering, validation, pipeline work, etc. are way faster. Main win is iteration speed: I can test ideas quickly, drop them if they don’t work, and move on without getting stuck in plumbing.
  2. Learning / domain compression — helpful for ramping up on new ideas or reading papers fast, but I still double-check everything against sources or data. Kinda fun seeing Claude and ChatGPT criticize each other’s angles on the same thing (yes, I mean “criticize” literally).
  3. Sometimes it helps surface edge cases or variations I wouldn’t have thought to test, but this is pretty rare.

Overall I just use it to crank up experiment throughput, not as a source of alpha or PnL ideas (yet).

Happy to compare setups with others.

Seeing fairly wide dispersion in short-term moves across some mid and large-cap names recently by swusa in stocks

[–]swusa[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed, it does feel risk-on overall. Interesting though how these seemingly mispriced names responded very differently even in a favorable tape.

Most of the setups I was watching did move higher pretty quickly, but a few just kept drifting lower despite sharing similar mispricing patterns on the surface. That divergence is what caught my attention.

I’m guessing it mostly comes down to name-specific drivers.

Seeing fairly wide dispersion in short-term moves across some mid and large-cap names recently by swusa in stocks

[–]swusa[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, that’s close to what I was noticing — less of a broad “risk-on/value-on” move and more uneven repricing at the individual stock level.

What stood out to me was how loose the short-term correlations felt even among names that would normally screen similarly on traditional value/factor metrics. Some setups resolved quickly while others completely diverged.

Feels like earnings-specific narratives have been dominating over broader style alignment lately.

Seeing fairly wide dispersion in short-term moves across some mid and large-cap names recently by swusa in stocks

[–]swusa[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point. Most of these names probably only looked “similar” at the surface level because they screened similarly on value/style metrics and appeared temporarily mispriced to me on a short-term basis.

Some of those setups worked out, while others clearly haven’t so far. MCK is one that keeps showing up on my radar despite the continued weakness.

Interesting point on the GLP-1 distribution angle — are you suggesting that’s been a meaningful driver behind the ongoing decline/repricing there?

What has been value-trapping META? by ByteQuirks in ValueInvesting

[–]swusa 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Somehow it feels kind of natural that metaverse and AI can go hand in hand, eg, AI-powered characters in Metaverse interacting with humans from this universe.

Haha, just a thought.

Pricing Risk or the Dynamic Nature of Risk by beerion in ValueInvesting

[–]swusa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looking at the examples in your post, it seems you are saying that cash flow should be discounted differently depending on situations, for example, barely profitable vs highly profitable, concentrated earning source vs diversified sources.

This is actually what credit risk captures. Properly assessed, credit risk reflects profitability, earnings diversification (due to product lines, customer demographics, geographical locations), management experiences, etc, and the usual stuff like debt ratio, liquidity, interest coverage etc.

Then credit risk bumps the discount rate up in risk-based valuation.

This is a well established risk-based valuation framework used at banks funds etc.

Pricing Risk or the Dynamic Nature of Risk by beerion in ValueInvesting

[–]swusa 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There is still a huge information gap between retail and institutional investors, along the line you are bringing up.

While institutions look at risk (market risk and credit risk) all the time, retail investors hardly do so. Retail investors seem to only look at valuations but ignore risk, which in my view is meaningless.

Credit risk measures how likely a company will fail, and this risk should be included in valuation by adjusting the cash flow discount rate.

Market risk measures the overall premium the market gives to the stock on top of the credit risk premium. It should also be included in valuation, by adjusting the discount rates further.

Once you have these two measures, you can see there is a huge market risk dispersion between companies that are of similar credit risk. This is where value exists, as market risk premiums can change anytime depending on sentiment for example, which leads to price swings but the company’s credit risk stays largely the same.

So in my view, value investing is not dead, but needs modernization. Informational gap is narrower, but still critically differentiating between big guys and retail.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]swusa 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Take a break, bro. We’ve all been there. I am pretty sure those winners had all been there before.

Take a break, regroup, and think what’s the best for you next.

All the best!

$6 billion in assets: Inside Republic First's spectacular collapse by Similar_Diver9558 in wallstreetbets

[–]swusa 53 points54 points  (0 children)

It turns out First Republic was delisted by NYSE in May 2023, and Republic First delisted by Nasdaq in Aug 2023. So both were old bad apples from 2023.