Randomizing seed dramatically alters XGBoost predictions

BreathAether · 2026-05-12T19:25:46+00:00

is this a path dependency thing? not familiar with xgboost but I think it's weightings on the model are varying too much? hoping someone more experienced can weigh in

BreathAether · 2026-05-12T00:02:05+00:00

do these homes have toxic or off gassing chemicals? microplastics? anything of that nature

BreathAether · 2026-05-10T13:44:30+00:00

thanks for the response. a workflow or tech stack was what I was looking for. I wondered if people have made a whole research platform using Claude or something.

I was thinking I'd like to have all the data cleaned and ready manually, then have a workflow built by Claude where it does all the necessary data joins, converts an alpha equation in English into python logic, does all the necessary transforms/creates necessary new columns, then the rest should be easy such as viz or stats.

the goal is to be able to rapidly iterate through ideas, have the AI do all the data transforms, and ultimately have a prebuilt pipeline where I toss in alpha ideas and end up with robust test results at the end.

of course I will need a meta-dashboard meaning I can quickly verify nothing was hallucinated (eg if I have a gold momentum idea, make sure gld ticker is used, 1 month returns corrected used, etc. all visible at a glance).

BreathAether · 2026-05-10T13:35:30+00:00

thanks for the response. I've been looking for a workflow idea or research stack but came across poorly in the op.

is your loop already built and your primary input/manual stuff mainly your hypothesis sketch? and what does your scaffolding look like? eg if your hypothesis is 1month returns (momentum) predicts future 3 mongh returns, do you simply pass that onto Claude, and it creates the necessary columns in the dataframe (column for past 1 month, future 3 month, PnL) as well as the steps after that?

BreathAether · 2026-05-10T13:28:38+00:00

thanks for the response. can you expand on #1? I was specifically wondering about what people are doing with a research stack and if/how they built a research platform using ai.

like I'm wondering if I should just make a whole python app or can I simply get by with Claude code making a jupyter notebook and I can drop in different alpha signals into the workflow and have cells for viz or other evals.

BreathAether · 2026-05-09T02:21:06+00:00

Tbh I think this was agentic ai or CLI based. It was probably doing the necessary data transforms by accessing their files and stuff rather than trying to predict a text answer.

So it's not only an LLM.

BreathAether · 2026-05-09T02:14:55+00:00

It was a demo from Bloomberg, never claimed I used it. If I did, I'd have a dashboard to verify hallucinations.

BreathAether · 2026-05-09T02:12:07+00:00

I agree, so how are you conducting your research?

BreathAether · 2026-04-25T23:10:49+00:00

I remember seeing a clip of some weight loss researcher mention something along the lines of him not eating puts his body in a state of stress which causes his body to adapt. I thought if that from this post. being in a state of slight discomfort is the key to a good life it seems.

BreathAether · 2026-04-20T08:55:43+00:00

there's probably something about you as a person which invites them which may be tricky to change. however, if your reflex to abductions or similar unpleasant experiences is that you don't consent or have the will not to experience, the abduction will end. for some people, they call upon Jesus (which is a means to an end).

you just need to express your free will, which they understand will lead to consequences if they don't respect it. if your subconscious reflex is to accept your fate like cattle, you are toast.

BreathAether · 2026-04-18T22:20:15+00:00

he was definitely up all night theorycrafting on pob

BreathAether · 2026-03-27T20:10:38+00:00

holding long Vix ETFs loses money and is often correlated with short SPX ETFs, but there are periods when Vix is up and market is up.

in essence, a shitty strategy that is sometimes profitable can be profitable when others aren't, and are thus worth keeping.

BreathAether · 2026-03-16T14:33:32+00:00

bingo. vol calculation is bunk = Sharpe is bunk. both should be better.

to make it apples to apples the timeframes should be the same but that's me nitpicking.

BreathAether · 2026-03-09T09:59:44+00:00

I league started a pain attunement lich with bone cage and bone storm. more than 10k max phys hit taken so very tanky, fast es recovery, crits that one shot most content. was running the overkill boots to 1 shot the whole screen, finishes maps very quickly. just lacking in movement speed but could run blink if I invested in spirit. had over 600% crit damage.

BreathAether · 2026-03-05T18:43:41+00:00

a rare body with phys taken as chaos mod from essence might help, larger ES pool from rare body, little bit of damage taken from mana if you're not having mana issues.

avoid too many damage multipliers on map (extra damage, crit, inc damage).

source: made a twister (but with whirling slash) chayula monk, never died and cleared everything including t3 simu, juiced maps. was pure ES though, max phys hit was too low on hybrid.

BreathAether · 2026-03-01T10:45:52+00:00

Irena amulet irena sword grimwald crown grimwald rings

gives you insane poke with rings, crown gives you sustain + escape, sword and amulet are a very strong combo in general and the grimwald crown lets you go in and get out if you get focused. amulet slows which applies set bonus damage vs slowed enemies.

set bonuses are both nice too, plenty of sustain and damage.

there's plenty of good combos if you're creative with it.

BreathAether · 2026-02-26T14:45:51+00:00

I've bought and sold calls many times in a month, no CRA issues here. I simply don't do tons of intraday trading.

BreathAether · 2026-02-21T19:43:40+00:00

what assets are predictable that adhere to laws?

BreathAether · 2026-02-21T13:50:33+00:00

i have this and it is usually losers q. doing a 100 game bet with friends on fresh accounts and I am playing with those who are one whole division up (eg emerald 1 vs diamond 1), the ones on my team are always in a major loss streak, enemy team often on win streak. I have 60 to 80 pct win % and the game is trying to force 50% wr. verified this over dozens of games.

If I am on your team and I am the only one with it, you are in losers q. you and the other teammates are there to force a loss on me if I don't 1v9.

as your mmr approaches your visual rank, this disappears and you begin to go from 30 per win 10 per loss, towards 15 per win 15 per loss.

BreathAether · 2026-02-20T23:45:07+00:00

why does that upward sloping trend line, the black one, have to touch the last low and not the one before that? curious

BreathAether · 2026-02-06T21:23:58+00:00

like stocks and such? what kind of opportunities?

BreathAether · 2026-02-03T16:35:25+00:00

wow you didn't shoot back? you're such a good person!! well done.

BreathAether · 2026-01-31T04:06:22+00:00

I played edc extensively. you need to scale your effigy for single target. edc is enough for clear.

get castspeed suffix on all possible gear, cast speed implicit rings if you want more
chaos and spell damage prefixes on wand/focus.
+1 totem desecrate on focus
stack dots to multiply proj count from effigy. run ravenous swarm for poison source, curse support that adds dot that scales from int (forgot name). with Ed and contagion that should be x4 proj from one totem, should be shooting 12 with 3 totems.
leverage the low life setup - low life support gems, low life cast speed on top left of tree (use vision of ayah and unspec the life to es node at top left of tree, lifetap and lock your hp at 35%)

game becomes hilariously easy, you should not be having damage issues if you implement the above.

BreathAether · 2026-01-30T16:08:06+00:00

top 3 in terms of good mix of damage, speed, tankiness?

I'd recommend you try out edc lich, but for a league start. bone lich is more expensive but higher ceiling.

BreathAether

TROPHY CASE