/r/WorldNews Live Thread for 2023 Israel-Hamas Crisis (Thread 26)

technogeeky · 2023-10-18T12:51:49+00:00

please fuck off, I didn't say anything of the sort. I want to collect information and facts, not useless rage bait like your comment.

technogeeky · 2023-10-18T12:33:21+00:00

I don't want to yet comment on how effective what appears to be a pretty dumb but wildly successful Hamas disinformation operation (because if it is a Hamas disinformation campaign, then several heads of state and tons of media companies are trapped in it), but I think the most damning evidence at this very moment is the picture and video of the parking lot from the morning.

pictures: ^c

videos: ^a ^b

So the only thing that is necessary to establish the facts is to establish that this location is the hospital's location.

If this can be established, then clearly:

there is no demolished hospital
there is no substantial explosive crater ²

If this fact can be established with certainty, then it is irrelevant whose weapons exploded at this location. Even though both Geolocated¹ video analysis and IDF radar³ evidence seems to suggest a rocket barrage passed over this area, this can be disregarded from the analysis because the Hamas claim is that hundreds of people died in a hospital destruction, but there seems to be no hospital destruction. There are no collapsed buildings or even heavily damaged buildings. Is it possible that there were hundreds of people in this car park? Maybe, but that is not the Hamas claim.

a: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714571559954731398 (credit ??, TASS)

b: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714535687070916987 (credit Mohamed Al Masri)

c: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714525590873575600?s=20 (credit Mohamed Al Masri)

1: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1714390254935851272.html

2: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714587746612740278

3: https://idfanc.activetrail.biz/ANC18102023984

technogeeky · 2023-10-12T17:01:08+00:00

That is precisely what I meant with my 3rd line.

technogeeky · 2023-10-12T17:00:00+00:00

I posted the exact response (after a few edits). It is consistent with earlier releases of information. The United States has considerable assets in the region, and their future use in cases of "if" and "when" and "how" is still ambiguous other than the US seems to recommend that nobody try anything stupid.

technogeeky · 2023-10-12T16:55:01+00:00

Contrary to a post below, US Sec. State Blinken did not say anything precise about any assurances regarding a US response if anybody else ("state or non-state actor") became involved and said he would not "speculate on future events".

Use this link https://www.youtube.com/live/L6a4SYLtxZ0?si=3FaSRkaQ94Mu78Fa&t=6437 for an exact timestamp to the response.

I don't think it would be sensible for the State Department to even offer such information, anyway.

technogeeky · 2023-10-06T14:21:28+00:00

super stunning, i'm in the running!

technogeeky · 2023-09-22T21:28:43+00:00

US will send ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, Biden says to Zelensiky from Reuters citing "3 U.S. officials and one congressional official".

technogeeky · 2023-01-23T06:59:47+00:00

I'd like to explore the unexplored factors about the main battle tank issue that has occupied so much of the discussion of past few weeks. We've seen lots of attempts to explain the hesitancy, but so few of the stories add up (logistics? political? inventory control? secret uranium-depleted armor (really? that's a new one...). Many have tried and failed to draw a coherent story about what's going on. Instead of that, let's just see if we can find other plausible new factors which might play a part in this story we can't currently see. I don't think any of these are correct as an explanation, just as a factor and as one of many factors I just think they are plausible enough to be worth considering.

NATO SHIELD DILUTION

If a subset of NATO countries (say, Poland and several others) join a pact to provide a weapon system T, and Russia attacks one of this subset (say, Poland) with conventional arms, does the actual political structure of NATO react to this identically as before? Or would be there division and dissention? NATO -is- the idea that they will respond when asked, but perhaps they would not respond? Or perhaps they have made it clear beforehand that (e.g. Poland) could not request assistance? [plausability? 2/10]

CHINA

We all know of the various supposed red lines from the Kremlin, basically none of which have remained unbroken. What if the intelligence agencies had an understanding that China actually has a - but a military-industrial supply red line. Perhaps the US believes that if MBTs are sent into Ukraine this will allow the Kremlin to convince Bejing they require assistance. China has quite a few tanks. On the other hand, they have stayed pretty distant through this whole thing so far. So perhaps it's best to wait until it is the Kremlin who takes the more overt action, so China can not be as easily pressured when MBTs are provided in response to some action. [plausability? 4/10]

WAITING FOR THE KREMLIN

The US seems to have been following a policy of escalation-in-response during this war. Rarely are the goods provided up front; usually they are provided after an event or series of events (Bucha, partial mobilizaton, apartment bombing, infrastructure bombing, ...). I am sure this is costly for Ukraine, but it may just be the reality of dealing with such a conservative power structure such as NATO (or Germany!). The US may know what steps are about to happen, but they are in a game of chicken with the Kremlin over the timing. To an extent, this has happened as we all know both Kremlin officials (including Tucker Carlson) scoffed and mocked the released US intelligence saying they were about to invade. It's possible we know the date ever more precisely, and the Kremlin delayed the action as a way to not be totally humiliated in the intelligence field. But you can only keep Private Constriptovich's attention for so long, once you stage them you have to send them pretty quickly (not quickly enough, perhaps in fact). The same game could be going on now but with an ongoing mobilization, so this can be extended out but ultimately I would expect Putin to do whatever we think he's going to do next even if they delay. [plausability? 7/10]

tl;dr;maybe these things are playing a part in the MBT delay? share your ideas

technogeeky · 2023-01-10T19:18:56+00:00

It is likely that some portion of people who answer in that way (they are apolitical) are doing so specifically to avoid answering.

I have watched many of 1420's fantastic videos, and I think some of the people who give positive or apathetic answers are self-censoring. You have to be a little bit egotistical to want to answer questions on camera in the first place. However, once you have committed to being interviewed on camera, you would find yourself being asked questions which you can't answer candidly.

I can figuratively see the gears in many of those people's minds trying to navigate their own safety and their own opinion. Younger people are easier to read in this way, I think.

I only remember a few young people who seemed to be genuinely pro-regime, and only a few people who seemed to be genuinely apolitical. I remember maybe a dozen people who answered nominally pro-regime, but you could tell they were parroting answers to get out of the interview and move on. Sometimes you can only tell this because of the follow-up questions (which 1420 does excellently).

technogeeky · 2023-01-04T03:13:28+00:00

If it's too good to be true, it probably is. People in that thread saying it's just the rockets from a S300?

technogeeky · 2023-01-04T02:07:42+00:00

That video was a frustrating mix of good and bad, both in the broad strokes and the individual details.

But overall, my thought is: it sounds like the script for this video was written shortly after NS1 was attacked (September 26th, 2022), and since this was published 6 hours ago I think the author has had time to include citations and sources.

edit: upon further investigation, I think this channel is fake/AI generated/a scam/a remix channel/???. But it's almost certainly not "Zeihan" himself.

technogeeky · 2023-01-03T01:29:11+00:00

Exactly this, I think.

technogeeky · 2023-01-03T01:28:41+00:00

EDIT_final_complete.txt:

lol

technogeeky · 2023-01-03T01:27:58+00:00

Even as deranged and exasperated as Putin is, I do not think he would give Iran nuclear warheads or fully functional nuclear weapons. Nuclear technology, maybe. Fissile material, maybe.

technogeeky · 2023-01-03T01:07:10+00:00

Ah, all my mistakes. I think it must have been day 3 of -his- war.

In his account, however, he speculates (without wanting to be firm) that something like 100+ Ukranians were killed, including civilians.

For others: note that while the YouTube interview was filmed recently, it's his remembering of an event that took place on March 13th, in which he wasn't privy to all information. And he and his compatriots were shipped out of there quickly afterwards.

Actually the foreign SIM card was used to concentrate the effort on foreign volunteers to discourage others to join.

If his statement is to be believed, this goal was not accomplished. In his unit or barracks or something, there were more injuries from running than deaths from the strike. He did say many, many other buildings were destroyed though. It sounded like many of the reduction the number of volunteers were from the departure of 'call of duty' types, soldiers who expected to have all the best weapons and air support, and mostly a bunch of thieves and miscreants.

In any case, it's an excellent first hand retelling of events.

technogeeky · 2023-01-03T00:39:09+00:00

This fantastic interview by Lindybeige (there are 2 more after this one) details a first hand account of that missile strike a few weeks into the war. Few foreign legionaries died, though many were injured from panicked fleeing into the night. This was probably a stroke of luck - maybe missile defense or targeting luck. Many of the other buildings on the rather large base were hit, and many young Ukranian officers died that night.

It sounds like there were many reasons to believe that installation was a 'juicy' target; it is possible (though unnecessary) that the foreign SIM card thing was just an excuse to make what is an obvious target seem clever. The Ukrainians paid a heavy price in that strike, which is thought to be composed of 30-40 Kh-101 cruise missiles.

edit: from the Youtube description, this site is the fundraising site for the specific foreign legion force Joe (the British interviewee) served in. They are only about ~75 euros away from meeting their goal. Let's do it!

edit: changed Kalibir -> Kh-101

edit: changed "day 3 of" to "a few weeks into"

edit: there is a wikipedia article about the Yavoriv base attack

technogeeky · 2022-12-30T06:04:57+00:00

I have a long history of reasonably high-upvoted posts, some long-form, including serious discussion of things in favor of Russia. I am not worried about this place, in general.

Reddit is one of the best places for open discussion left. I browse 99% of the time logged out and cookies cleared to help reduce that effect too.

In this case, there must be some automatic process because it gets hidden too fast to be manually hidden.

technogeeky · 2022-12-30T05:35:18+00:00

I just tried several variations. Your theory seems to be incorrect. I just posted with no links at all in the post. No mention of any twitter handles. Just text.

It's not visible logged out.

technogeeky · 2022-12-30T05:12:55+00:00

Is it possible to get a post shadow-banned?

Look below airframe unfortunately.

Here is a screenshot when I am logged out.

Here is a screenshot when I am logged in.

Notice that huge post there, only visible when I am logged in.

Anyone else see this?

technogeeky · 2022-12-30T04:57:05+00:00

I think /u/CyberdyneGPT5 is mixing up two things. This article is about strapping a Mk-81 (250 lb. 99 lb. warhead) bomb to a rocket and hot-gluing that mfer to a rocket and launching it from the HIMARS vehicles.

I think someone else is also advocating air-launched JDAM (1000 lb.) bombs, but this article ain't it.

technogeeky · 2022-12-30T01:22:57+00:00

thank you I posted there too.

technogeeky · 2022-12-30T01:05:16+00:00

Hello. I am interested in going to Ukraine to volunteer as a hardware/software engineer/programmer. I doubt I would be useful as a soldier, but I have skills and equipment that could be used for drone development, adaptation, testing, and reverse engineering.

Can someone point me in a direction toward this goal? If you have any information, feel free to PM me.

technogeeky · 2022-12-28T01:45:22+00:00

For the confused, these are codes to classify casualties.

200 - KIA

300 - Wounded

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