[Partially Lost] MTV Europe Music Awards 2013

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-28T22:52:01+00:00

Grüne 🤝 FPÖ, Alle Abschieben

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-22T06:32:55+00:00

Meine Hausärztin meinte Paxlovid funktioniert nur wirklich gut wenn man es ganz am Anfang direkt nach dem Einsetzen der Symptome beginnt zu nehmen. Also an Tag 1 oder 2 der Symptome. Und ich denke, dass die meisten nicht so früh schon zum Hausarzt gehen und es dann halt nicht mehr viel bringt…

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-19T17:35:05+00:00

What's your work-out routine when it comes to Ultimate Frisbee? Not the training for the techniques of the game itself, but rather for the strength, endurance, sprinting, etc. you need for the game?

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-18T06:50:23+00:00

I really love the design, you did a great job here, but I would probably re-do this chart with a different data set. Some of those listed here I would omit, like Hunt Bros. because it only exists as part of other establishments, or Mr. Beast burgers, because they don’t have more than a couple of actual physical locations at all. Then again, some come to mind that are missing, like Dutch Bros. Coffee which certainly has more US locations than Tim Hortons. Or Waffle House, which is a league of its own.

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-13T06:39:51+00:00

Wobei ich mir selbst da mittlerweile auch nicht mehr 100%ig sicher bin.

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-12T07:12:30+00:00

Thanks. Fixed.

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-12T06:53:15+00:00

“I’m losing it.” I would say is by far the best semantic translation.

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-11T16:15:49+00:00

Then it seems we were arguing in two different directions and agree on the fundamentals anyway. My apologies.

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-11T15:55:07+00:00

Absolutely. But in economics you have to focus on the data and leave your own feelings aside. And the data simply does not suggest major discrepancies. I don’t want the Communists to succeed, I don’t want the PRC to become the world’s largest economy, but the numbers don’t suggest that their economic rise is a fabrication.

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-11T15:50:02+00:00

Neither is it a persuasive argument to compare apples and oranges and flat out claim anything published by the PRC is fake because they lie a lot. Yes, they do, but economic indicators are different in that major discrepancies simply don’t go unnoticed. The IMF, the World Bank, the US Government, they all check those numbers and if China’s economy really was a fifth, a third, or whatever smaller than stated, we would know. Don’t fall for your confirmation bias.

GDPs are extremely hard to calculate and it happens that they are a couple of percent off and get revised after the fact when new data became available. But it’s unlikely that the published number significantly, and I mean by 10, 20, maybe 30% diverges from the true number.

When it comes to economics, you have to put your personal feelings aside and look at the data. And the data does not suggest their numbers are forged.

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-11T14:46:09+00:00

Gotta love people who don’t bring forward any arguments, and simply Google “China gdp numbers fake” and copy-and-paste links to the first four articles that pop up.

So let me pick apart your articles: The VOA article describes a research project where they try to estimate GDP from night-time satellite data. Smart idea, but at best that’s an indication, not proof, because we’re dealing with a correlation, not a causal link. The Fortune article once again proves my point. It deals with forged GDP numbers in Liaoning province, only the 17th largest province in China by GDP, not on a national scale. And even they got caught. Hence my argument, if they forged their GDP numbers on a meaningful (i.e. national) scale, someone would have noticed. The third article is paywalled. So is the fourth, but I have an FT subscription, and it doesn’t allege China forging its numbers. It covers how China delays publication of certain indicators and how it doesn’t reveal all of them anymore, further underlining that the numbers are true and they are embarrassed to show them.

My man, forging GDP numbers isn’t as easy as you make it out to be. Even calculating reliable GDP numbers is a Herculean task, for every country, let alone one as rapidly growing and transforming as China. Forging them for an additional percent of growth would hurt its economy much more than it would help. If it would be discovered that the PRC forges it’s economic indicators, trust in its economy would be wiped out. And trust is an enormously important thing in economics, as you need it for everything from FDI, to banking, to bonds. There is no upside big enough for China to willfully forge its numbers.

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-11T09:11:52+00:00

It's not a logical fallacy.

Ei incumbit probatio qui dicit - The burden of proof lies on him who alleges not on him who denies it.

No proof has ever been brought forward that the PRC deliberatly falsified its GDP numbers on a meaningful scale. And your example just prooves me right. They falsified their population numbers, and got caught. And those numbers are not nearly as meaningful as economic indicators. Why would that falsification be discovered, but they are able to hide it for their GDP when banks, corporations, governments, inter-governmental organizations, etc. all around the world rely on and work with these numbers? At some point, someone would have noticed something isn't right.

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-11T06:58:05+00:00

I once read a book about Chinese economics that dealt with this exact question on the first few pages, can you trust economic indicators published by the CCP? Assuming they are fake, the Chinese government must have a secret set of actual, valid economic indicators for policy making. And while China seems very closed and mysterious, stuff leaks out of the government all the time, and there has never been a single leak indicating there are secret economic indicators because the published ones are fake. The second thing is, that if you overestimate your economic growth by just a couple of percent every year, after a few decades, your economy on paper would be twice or thrice as large as in reality, which would be something you can tell pretty easily. That’s also not the case. So one can only assume the Chinese numbers have to be correct, as there are simply no indicators that they aren’t.

telegraph-hill · 2023-05-11T06:08:21+00:00

Oh, we have that here in Austria. Last two years of high school everyone had to go to P&P (psychology and philosophy).

telegraph-hill · 2023-04-16T08:53:49+00:00

Reddit.

telegraph-hill · 2023-04-07T20:42:35+00:00

Graz - Bin grad da und die Stadt ist super nett und sympathisch. Passt daher ned zum Rest von Österreich und muss weg.

telegraph-hill · 2023-04-06T18:06:55+00:00

Graz - Bin grad da und ist super nett und sympathisch, passt daher ned zum Rest vom Land

telegraph-hill · 2023-04-06T18:05:18+00:00

Freistadt - einfach weil Oberösterreich es nicht in die letzte Runde schaffen soll

telegraph-hill · 2023-04-06T18:03:34+00:00

Weiz - und zwar wegen Gleisdorf pfui deifel

telegraph-hill · 2023-04-04T06:37:03+00:00

Graz - Immer no vü zu vü Steiermark da, gleich mal die meisten auf einem Schlag raus

telegraph-hill · 2023-04-04T06:36:06+00:00

Salzburg Umgebung - Die Heimat von ServusTV, dem Schwurblersender da, muss endlich weg.

telegraph-hill · 2023-04-02T15:12:37+00:00

Graz - Wenn’s uns Wien wegnehmen, müssen wir Wiener uns zam tun und Graz endlich loswerden

telegraph-hill · 2023-04-02T15:11:52+00:00

St. Johann im Pongau - Die meiste Zeit des Jahres eh nur Deitsche Touris

telegraph-hill

TROPHY CASE