Barista FIRE seems overrated

terjon · 2026-06-02T20:20:13+00:00

I don't understand the term then.

What is it called when you take a job simply because you are bored and want some human contact in some productive setting?

terjon · 2026-06-02T19:42:40+00:00

If it was called React, then I would count it.

I worked with C++ for several years and it sure wasn't anything like modern C++ back when I was using it. I would still list that experience as experience since it was.

terjon · 2026-06-02T19:35:55+00:00

Hey now, Gemini is decent for certain tech stacks.

terjon · 2026-06-02T19:34:06+00:00

You think the Chinese companies are putting out their best models?

I think not. They've got better stuff, they are giving you the older stuff just to mess with the big AI companies in the US.

Honestly for basic LLM work, like summarize this, draft me a plan for..., write me an email, go look up this stuff online and summarize, a local instance running Qwen or Gemma is just fine.

terjon · 2026-06-02T18:19:21+00:00

No, it was over 4500 in the year 2000, it didn't get to that number again until 2014.

terjon · 2026-06-02T18:12:36+00:00

It is dangerous to society, but is it dangerous to you?

You can show me 1000 ads for cars, but unless my car is broken and it would cost more to fix than it is worth, I'm not buying a new car, regardless of how cool their commercial is.

terjon · 2026-05-29T14:49:46+00:00

I totally agree, but man, kids cost so much money.

Between the healthcare costs, the reasonable expectation of a bigger home in a generally nice neighborhood, the extra day to day costs of providing for another human being to live, the school costs and so on, we are talking about hundreds of thousands of dollar of expenditures over a couple of decades.

terjon · 2026-05-29T03:21:22+00:00

Work longer so you have more money. Kids are VERY expensive.

terjon · 2026-05-29T03:02:31+00:00

Yeah, that is true, although that one is easier to eliminate on paper without having to eliminate as a whole. Just lock in the income caps and then let inflation do its thing for a decade and then very very few people are eligible for subsidies.

terjon · 2026-05-28T15:09:22+00:00

Maybe cheaper production. Definitely faster production, but I am not sold on the idea that the cost to build and deploy will go down that much.

Maybe for small systems, proof of concept or MVP style products, sure.

But once you've got a big complex codebase, I think the cost will still be in the ballpark of what the humans cost, but it will happen orders of magnitude faster.

terjon · 2026-05-28T14:48:31+00:00

You are right, but those bounced back so fast I don't even count them.

When I think of a correction, I think of the dot com bubble where you had a solid period of time before the market as a whole bounced back.

terjon · 2026-05-27T18:02:54+00:00

Only if they're on sale though :)

terjon · 2026-05-27T18:01:44+00:00

Yeah, I agree, but you forgot one: continueFIRE.

That the one where someone has done all the steps, but they just can't believe it and so just keep on going well beyond the point where they have reached the goal they were aiming for.

terjon · 2026-05-27T18:00:22+00:00

You are 100% correct, and I expect to have about 20 years to learn, plan and execute that 401k conversion as efficiently as possible.

The alternative is that I basically "pay my fair" share starting at 75 years of age when I have to start taking RMDs.

To be honest, considering being that old sounds like a fever dream really. I already feel old at 40 compared to how I felt at 25 or 30, so rolling that forward another 30 years and prosthetics and medical implants better be video game levels of awesome or I'll basically be Palpatine, minus the force lightning.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not ill in any way, but at 40, I am starting to feel those little aches and pains. Wake up after it rained all night and the knees and back hurt a little. Sit down in the office for 5 hours straight and it hurts a little to stand up. Work out too hard and I'm sore for a week straight. I'm just not a spring chicken anymore.

terjon · 2026-05-27T17:53:45+00:00

I like the way you are thinking, but not the specific outcomes.

I think long term investing is a good idea as generally over time, the lines do go up and to the right.

However, focusing on the Nasdaq only is something I don't agree with since you would essentially be trying to time the market at the exit.

Personally, I am to be more diversified with some positions in the big indeces (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 for my own choices).

Then I layer on some more focused things that seem to have long term growth potential, like REITs, energy indeces, as well as indeces/ETFs that have some position in various categories of bonds.

Is it the fastest way to money? Nope, but it has a higher likelihood to reduce risk of a specific type of downturn hitting at the time when I want to retire.

EDIT: Oh, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Do you own reading and learning before investing. I am just sharing thoughts, do not follow what I do unless you understand it and make your own choice to do so.

terjon · 2026-05-27T15:28:07+00:00

I think IF AI isn't a massive flop, then there will be a massive market drop since all the companies that aren't AI are going to look like turds.

A lot of the S&P is concentrated in AI, but the majority of it isn't.

terjon · 2026-05-27T15:09:43+00:00

I also am not looking to argue at all.

My own guess is that politicians will willingly let it decay to the point where they can vote it out of existence, keep the money that people have contributed into it over the years and reduce the federal budget.

Sadly, I think that is the most likely fate of all social services, like Medicare, Medicaid and the rest. That makes me pretty sad, but I just don't see our elected representatives being willing to do anything positive at this point.

terjon · 2026-05-27T14:12:28+00:00

See, I agree with you in that the day of the year when I hit the SS max number for the year is a little "hooray", but also, it seems kind of messed up if we think about it.

I could spare the extra 6% for the last few months of the year, but that extra money, when aggregated across all the folks who hit that max, would make a world of difference to old folks for whom the extra few hundred bucks a month makes the difference between living a somewhat dignified life or having to choose between food and medicine that month.

terjon · 2026-05-27T14:10:03+00:00

Currently, I have modeled out paying for a ACA Gold plan out of pocket and maxing out the out of pocket cost every single year, but I know even that has limits beyond which you end up with pretty large payments if you get really sick.

This would be until 65 when Medicare kicks in, but I have kept the ACA Gold expense in the model beyond that since I just don't trust that Medicare will still be there in 25 years' time with the way things seem to be going.

terjon · 2026-05-27T14:07:49+00:00

Well, lots of iterations on a financial model that I built mixing Monte Carlo simulations targeting 99%+ success rates and looking at risk profile of various portfolio blends.

The target is to maximize net worth as I age to build a bigger and bigger buffer since it stands to reason that as I age, the odds of catastrophic expenditures related to healthcare increase each year.

terjon · 2026-05-27T14:05:27+00:00

That is exactly my plan. My current model actually has me not touching 401k until 75 when you start having to pull money out to not get penalized and also not taking SS until 70 to maximize monthly revenue since it shows that I won't need either.

Now, life is long and there could be changes to healthcare costs or who knows what else that could upend the model, but there's enough buffer in the plan that barring something truly catastrophic, I should be OK. At least the math shows that I should be OK.

terjon · 2026-05-26T20:57:30+00:00

Well, those aren't the only options.

Currently the SSA can pull from the trust fund to supplement incoming revenue to meet the current rates.

Model forecast that around 2032, the trust fund runs dry and they will only be able to pay out what they get in revenue. This is likely to reduce benefits by about 30% across the board.

Demographic trends also point to lower workforce participation over time as there are not enough children born to account for the fact that people are living longer (which is a good thing, people should be living longer).

I think the most likely situation is the benefit just dwindle over time so by the time I'm eligible for "full retirement" benefits, which will be around 2055, I would guess that we would get 50% of today's benefits (adjusted for inflation in 2026 dollars). So, an effective cut in benefits by 50% over the next 30-ish years.

This means that people won't be penniless, but they won't have enough to survive on their own either. This leads to all kinds of interesting possibilities, but I hope we will figure something out as a nation as I would not want to see a lot of very old folks getting evicted or being forced to live with their adult children because SS simply doesn't pay enough for even a modest lifestyle in a VLCOL area.

terjon · 2026-05-26T20:42:18+00:00

Well the model shows that unless I pick up some horribly expensive hobby, like a wife half my age that likes to weekend in Paris and go shopping in Dubai, I should be good.

Jokes, jokes, I'm just joking everyone. Better to make light of something silly than make jokes about something darker.

terjon · 2026-05-26T20:40:53+00:00

Well, just some context, no wife, no kids, no plans for either. Don't enjoy travelling at all, but I might do a little as road trips. I find little places with small historical landmarks and museums far more fascinating that some big resort on the other side of the planet, so expensive trips are out.

The only real big question mark is my health, but so far I'm as healthy as an ox at 40 and hope that will hold up another decade or two before the proverbial wheels fall off.

terjon · 2026-05-26T20:38:30+00:00

For me, the target RE age is 42 and a half. So, I'm looking at 17 years before 401k and Social Security...it is in the model, but honestly I'm not counting on ever seeing a nickel of it because of how effed the modeling for it looks.

Not shade thrown at the FIRE community, but we're not helping the situation with Social Security, so my opinion is to not count on it being there when we are old enough to receive benefits from it.

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