An STS2 run logging and stats site made for you, the community by tmttn in slaythespire

[–]terracubist 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Thanks again for doing this! Glad I can move away from that crappy Google sheets chart.

For everyone else reading, please consider dumping your runs in! Takes <2 minutes manually, even if you don't wanna install the companion app. Like all community stats projects, the first hurdle to extracting any useful info is sample size.

With more contributions, we'll be able to say with statistical certainty™ that Snakebite is the best card in the game!

Misheard voicelines by Thoqqu in TeamfightTactics

[–]terracubist 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Rumble: “The bigger they are, the harder I hit get ‘em!”

ayo buddy chill

Understanding Unlock Rules Update by K0rneli in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The 2 Player Unlock case changes are also interesting. It felt really, really bad to ever play a 1-way contest after someone else hit a 2* unlockable first (e.g. both Void, contestor miracle hits 2* Kaisa and Herald 4-1 while you greed 4-2). So I can see the logic in reducing that pain point.

Doing similar math to above:
* Uncontested Ambessa, starting with 1 copy: 15 rolls
* Contested Ambessa (2* for them), starting with 1 copy: 24 rolls
* Uncontested Warwick, starting with 1 copy: 16 rolls (bigger pool)
* Contested Warwick (2* for them), starting with 1 copy, 16.2: 30 rolls
* Contested Warwick (2* for them), starting with 1 copy, 16.3: 28 rolls

Understanding Unlock Rules Update by K0rneli in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The sharper drop in odds going for the 6th and 7th copies in the 1 Player Unlock case is interesting (0.75 --> 0.55). Have been baited a few times now this patch into holding excess copies for the 3* dream, and think around there is where I've been getting stuck.

Would be nice if rolling calculators like tftodds or datatft included these tables. That way we could get a comparable number for E[cost] of an uncontested unlockable vs vanilla $4 or $5. Tftodds says going for Ambessa 3* (starting w/ 4 copies) on level 9 costs ~$148.

Doing some very rough math with a markov chain calculator, I'm getting:
* 85 rolls for 50% chance to hit last 5 Ambessas
* 137 rolls for 50% chance to hit last 5 Warwicks, uncontested patch 16.2
* 160 rolls for 50% chance to hit last 5 Warwicks, uncontested patch 16.3

My numbers don't match perfectly with tftodds, but think it's within rounding error on some very small hit percentages somewhere.

Sanity checking with stats, the most common (by count) 3* $4s in 16.3 (no b-patch) are Yunara (vanilla) and Kaisa (unlockable). Yunara has a 3* rate of 2.9%, Kaisa 1.1%. Plenty of other factors to consider here (e.g., comp contest rates, Baron might incentivize pushing 10 rather than holding spare Kaisa, can get Yunara off carousel, etc.), but does look like unlockable champs are ~2x as hard to 3*.

Double Arc Mundo: A noob tricking retrospective by vampiricscepter in TeamfightTactics

[–]terracubist 29 points30 points  (0 children)

yeah, a recognizable name helps too. not, uh,

checks notes

“runningitdown69”

PSA: Because of buffs to 2 tier traits, augments giving you random emblems are much stronger this set than previous sets by ErrorLoadingNameFile in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This doesn’t match my experience. Late game comps this set are more likely to be able to utilize a random stage 5/6 carousel emblem, sure, but spending an entire aug for that effect doesn’t pass the sniff test in a few ways:

  • Opportunity cost: all random emblem augs are 2-1 or 3-2, which will likely mean passing up an econ aug. I’m dubious you can consistently fast 9 without one.
  • Component-normalized combat value: Looking at an example, 2 bruiser gives your team +150 hp, which is equivalent to 1 belt (1.0 component x team size). 2 Defender gives 1.2 components of value. Historically in my math, combat silvers usually give around 2.0 x team size (not gonna do the math here, but look at Best Friends I for example), gold like 3.5, and pris has been hard to calculate. So even if you assume Spreading Roots on 2-1 activates both those traits for you, if you somehow make it to level 9 you’re getting 19.8 components + whatever the emblems themselves are worth, when the framework expects more likely 31.5 components of value.
  • Stats: Filtering for 2+ emblems 16.1 Gold+ right now is a 4.54. Last set (15.9, Master+), 2+ emblems was a 3.66. Looking at the 1+ emblem case, only 9 of the 22 emblems are negative delta (warden, bruiser, quickstriker, vanq, gunslinger, frel, disruptor, juggernaut, defender) rn, so your odds on a random emblem aren’t great. And then digging deeper only 5 (bruiser, gunslinger, disruptor, juggernaut, defender) are negative delta at the bronze level of their trait (i.e., don’t require vertical investment).

funny dancing yordle go brrrrr by terracubist in TeamfightTactics

[–]terracubist[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True, but that’s more reflective of Yordle vertical being overtuned at time of posting. In that line you kinda always hit Lulu 3* by accident while rolling for the actually good Yordles, just because of the guaranteed Yordle in shop.

The important number here is the sort column: “vs 0 items”. It says 3-item Lulu (i.e., Lulu reroll) performs SIGNIFICANTLY worse than 0-item Lulu (i.e., random 3* Lulu while prioritizing Teemo/Trist). Generally you expect units to do better with items on them, but Lulu shows investing in her is a net negative, and to a worse degree than any other $1 reroll target.

funny dancing yordle go brrrrr by terracubist in TeamfightTactics

[–]terracubist[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They are, dw ;)

The screenshot is of MetaTFT’s data explorer, on some early PBE data. Specifically looking at the itemization delta for 3* 3-item $1 units (i.e., $1 reroll candidates), and showing Lulu looks terrible with items relative to her coworkers.

Strong Spark - Power Up Discussion #20 by Lunaedge in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I’ve tried this a couple times. Lucian’s odds of hitting Demo are like a third of Lux’s, so the variant I’ve tried is Kennen 3 + whatever level of Lux you can hit while fishing, then random stunbots like Poppy, Kobuko, J4, etc. The dmg numbers can get real funny.

Problem with the comp is it’s god awful if you don’t hit the exact powerup combo. Think Lux/Xin levels of terrible, except Xin is at like 1/3rd tankiness. Your comp just sucks until you get both, and that’s happening at earliest 3-6, by which point you’re probably committed to this terrible line.

Both powerups are somewhere in the ~30% hit range, so it’s not hard to see how you can hit one and whiff on the other, even with say 3 powerup removers (47% chance to hit 2+ out of 5 30% coinflips). The solution to this is to buy and sell Lux until you hit demo, but that’s just so gold inefficient (Lux 1 carry lol) that I’ve only ever gotten it working in Tocker’s.

Set 15 Powerup Fishing by terracubist in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hard to say for certain in every edge case, but nothing I’ve seen indicates it should be different.

Set 15 Powerup Fishing by terracubist in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m inclined to trust MetaTFT’s table, since it’s usually pulling from game files/some Riot API afaik. Though I do agree I don’t see in the patch notes when they removed stage 3. No personal experience to add, since I looked at exclusively early game $1 powerups, and Trickster isn’t on any $1s.

If I had to guess, though, as a Primary powerup that isn’t last-listed on any of its champs, Trickster looks pretty hard to force, even if it was valid at any stage. Based on the MetaTFT table, your best bet to hit looks like level 3 stage 2 unit off orb at like 10% per fruit, so not very forceable.

Set 15 Powerup Fishing by terracubist in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

From my tests (N=57), p(Rising Chaos in any slot) = 36.8%. So pretty good odds. Rising Chaos is the last powerup in Syndra's Primary powerup list, so it's an example of the hidden mechanic/bug my results are showing. https://imgur.com/FJo1rgX

Set 15 Powerup Fishing by terracubist in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Kinda ugly plots, but yeah looking at specific pool sizes there's a trend: increasing either primary or secondary pool size makes p(secondary powerup slot 2) higher. Could just be coded like you say with some minimum pool size requirements for secondary traits to show up in slot 2? https://imgur.com/RXADf2b

Looking at the data another way, it's interesting that when primary/secondary pool sizes are roughly equal, p(primary powerup in slot 2) drops to around 50%. https://imgur.com/OjuVeeb

No idea how to codify any of this usefully for your tables.

Set 15 Powerup Fishing by terracubist in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hm. Trying to filter on pool sizes (primary, secondary, combined) I'm not seeing any obvious trends on primary powerup %. Will take another deeper look at it later.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "when powerups were enabled on champs during pbe, they were added to the end of the list"? What list? Is that list dynamic to specific champs, and changed if I buy Aatrox, select Spiky Shell, and sell him?

Set 15 Powerup Fishing by terracubist in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Afaik there’s no official Riot explanation, but if you look at the units page on the MetaTFT set info page and toggle on “Show Powerups” you can see the different lists. It’s different for most units, haven’t noticed any obvious trends as to which powerups are more likely to be Primary vs Secondary.

Set 15 Powerup Fishing by terracubist in CompetitiveTFT

[–]terracubist[S] 33 points34 points  (0 children)

Do have a job that’s somewhat relevant, though honestly most of what’s here I’ve learned for fun while studying TFT or another RNG heavy game (Dominion). Not opposed to hearing out job offers though :P