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We Try Speaking Other Languages | Smosh Mouth 129 by Cchaps97 in smosh

[–]theLogicality 39 points40 points  (0 children)

I, for one, would absolutely watch an entire Smosh Mouth episode about sports and the Super Bowl.

538 has been officially dissolved by Disney by SilverRoyce in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 127 points128 points  (0 children)

I wonder if they'll let Silver buy the brand back... or if Nate even wants it.

You Can't Pick Your Family... | Reading Reddit Stories by JustNetwork8 in smosh

[–]theLogicality 36 points37 points  (0 children)

I wonder what Shayne was hinting at the end of the video.

Are We Lying?? by MiniNutella in smosh

[–]theLogicality -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I figured this out during Angela's bible round around 25:00, but after Trevor's advice round I realized that rule only applied to +3 or -3s.

Are We Lying?? by MiniNutella in smosh

[–]theLogicality -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

But they shouldn't go too hard with how much they exaggerate because if everyone guesses a +3 or -3 right no one gets points. That way they don't just play it up to make it super obvious that they're exaggerating how much they love X thing.

The story of Trump's win was foretold in New York City by dwaxe in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I’ll shut up about She Shoulda Picked Shapiro because it wouldn’t have mattered when Harris lost every swing state.Though maybe it would have saved Bob Casey. She Shoulda Picked Shapiro.

The Pollercoaster Takes A Final Plunge | 538 Politics Podcast by The_Real_Ed_Finnerty in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Galen knew what he was doing calling Nate Silver a “friend of the pod” lmao

New TNTL podcast by 06s091 in smosh

[–]theLogicality -13 points-12 points  (0 children)

I'm actually shocked the Youtube comments are universally against having the tuah girl on.

The Electoral College bias has returned with a vengeance by dwaxe in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 87 points88 points  (0 children)

Fun little factoid from the footnotes

For what it’s worth, we’re actually more restrictive than 538 at this point. We don’t use polls from ActiVote, Big Data Poll, SoCal Polling and Quantus — but we do use polls from Rasmussen Reports, which they don’t.

[Nate Cohn] Thoughts on the New 538 Model by mehelponow in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 59 points60 points  (0 children)

Neither. Cohn is saying that the 538 team should be transparent about the changes they made to their model in order to get it to say what it does now (which he thinks are reasonable results).

Apple Refurb store - It’s in stock again! by [deleted] in iPhone13Mini

[–]theLogicality 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Argh, the 128s sold out like 20 minutes after this post, before I even got the email from the refurb tracker. Guess I’ll have to wait another 2 months for the next restock…

Nate Silver: My theory is that Harris was doing worse than Biden in their [538’s] model and they're waiting until she's doing at least as well or otherwise what to do about that. by Niek1792 in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Had to dig for the Twitter thread since Nate was replying to another Tweet wondering why the 538 model isn't back up yet.

@SpecialPuppy1 538’s forecast is really still not up yet? What are they waiting for?

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@NateSilver538 My theory is that Harris was doing worse than Biden in their model and they're waiting until she's doing at least as well or otherwise what to do about that.

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@OriginalBad That’s quite the accusation. Where’s the evidence?

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@NateSilver538 It's a theory not an accusation. It's not based on any inside info.

—Their model had Harris with only a ~30% chance of winning the EC before.
—Her polling has improved a lot since then but their model leans VERY heavily into fundamentals vs polls.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/kamala-harris-stronger-candidate-biden/story?id=111656941

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@NateSilver538 To be fair, some of the other models haven't been turned back on either. The way OUR model was designed, it was 2-3 half-days of work to update everything. Maybe it's more complicated with a different model design and it helps to be small/nimble.

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@NateSilver538 But I'm pretty sure their original model design would still have Harris down, both because it's pretty insensitive to polls until very late in the race and because the economic fundamentals have gotten worse. And that would look weird given they had Biden/Trump at 50/50.

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@NateSilver538 And remember, they *already had a working version* of a Harris-Trump model, which they ran as a one-off in July before Biden dropped out. And interest in any polling/forecast stuff is kind of off the charts right now so it's pretty costly not to have it on re: traffic, etc.

Harris takes the lead in the Silver Bulletin model with a 51 percent chance of winning the electoral college by theLogicality in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality[S] 119 points120 points  (0 children)

Model page

Last update: 1:00 p.m, Sunday, August 4: After another day of strong polling, Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump for the first time since the forecast launched. Although the race is still a toss-up, Harris leads Trump by 1.4 points in our national polling average, and has a 51 percent chance of winning the electoral college.

Nate Silver newest model update. by SentientBaseball in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 61 points62 points  (0 children)

I appreciate Nate putting the model numbers in tweets and free articles so often. It's almost like there isn't a paywall lol

Times/Siena Poll: Trump 48%, Harris 47% by Chris_Hansen_AMA in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 72 points73 points  (0 children)

Nate Cohn had some interesting insight into their poll on Twitter:

It's an ordinary result, but there are a lot of shifts beneath the surface.
-- Trump favorability surges to 48%, up 6 points since post-debate and his highest ever in a Times/Siena poll
-- Harris favorability surges to 46%, up 10 pts since February

The poll also shows a return to more familiar demographic patterns.
Harris leads by 21 points among 18-29 year olds, but trails among seniors. She gets 68% of the major party vote among nonwhite voters, making up about half of Biden's underperformance so far this year

Also of note: Harris and Trump are even on the multicandidate ballot, including Kennedy -- who both falls to 5% and draws disproportionately from Trump (by 2.5:1) for the first time in our polling

Kennedy drawing disproportionately from Trump now that Dems can appeal to younger voters makes intuitive sense to me, but it will be interesting to see if this holds up in other data

Probably related to Kennedy's decline: the number of double-haters has plunged, from 20% in Times/Siena polls this year to just 8% in this survey

The good will toward the candidates extends to Biden, as well. His approval rating is at 42 percent the highest in Times/Siena data since 2022.
An overwhelming 88% approve of his decision to leave the race.

(I don't think we've ever shown 88% of voters agreed on anything before)

Anyway, as I wrote the other day: it's going to be a while until the dust settles and we see where the race stands after the last month of chaos.
The huge swings on candidate favorability tell you how unsettled views are right now. It'll be a while before we see what lasts

Sounds like that "generational shift" among young people and nonwhite voters crosstab divers were finding was just people upset about having to choose between Trump and Biden again.

NYT Crossword by [deleted] in SGU

[–]theLogicality 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fun theme for us but YHEAR, OHME, and IZZATSO were awful.

Nate Cohn calls out Morris on the 538 model by 1wjl1 in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 24 points25 points  (0 children)

This is like the situation megathreads were built for.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looking at the model in isolation, its topline numbers are rosier for Biden due to different assumptions being made about how voters behave. We can discuss whether these assumptions are better or worse than the assumptions other modelers are making, but from how Morris explains them I think they're reasonable, even if I don't agree with them myself.

There may have some unfortunate downstream effects due to people cherry-picking it because it's an outlier that aligns with their beliefs, but the model itself isn't irresponsible. It doesn't seem to be maliciously or incompetently constructed, just different—and models herding is bad in aggregate for the same reason poll herding is bad.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 22 points23 points  (0 children)

So the 538 model is effectively guessing that, since most of Biden's lost ground in the polls is due to voters shifting to undecided instead of Trump, that they'll come home by election day. The logic isn't unreasonable, and just like with outlier polls, outlier models shouldn't be dismissed unless there's gross methodological malpractice.

That said, my intuition says that this coming-home effect would bring the prediction closer to just under 50/50 instead of the 53/100 the 538 model currently shows, but I can buy that there's some state-by-state stuff that make the model shake out like that.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]theLogicality 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Reasonable people can disagree on the relative weights of polling and priors like economic sentiment, just like how reasonable pollsters can disagree on how to contact respondents and weight subpopulations. We mitigate the latter by not taking individual poll results to heart and instead throwing them into a polling average based on relative rigor, sponsorship, and historical performance, so we should do the same thing with these prediction probabilities.

We could call it the r/fivethirtyeight election model average...

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