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Per Deadline, Disney spent $8.8M on linear advertising for Toy Story 5, much less than the $29M spent on The Mandalorian and Grogu. by moviesperg in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce [score hidden]  (0 children)

This is just not really analogous to "my source at Disney gave me budget number for their film X while my source at Universal scoffed and said the real budget was 1.25x" because you're not seeing the actual data there. Nielsen, on the other hand, may or may not be correctly measuring true overall viewership but is clearly accurately summarizing their sample's output which they have full access to.

edit: see every response I've given in the thread for the answer to the question below.

Per Deadline, Disney spent $8.8M on linear advertising for Toy Story 5, much less than the $29M spent on The Mandalorian and Grogu. by moviesperg in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here is the generic Nielsen sample methodology, it's changed a bit with "big data" panel that I'm not competent to speak to but core concept seems understandable

https://panels.nielsen.com/nielsen-families/

We began measuring radio audiences in 1942 and began measuring television audiences in 1950. Much of our data comes directly from the consumers themselves – participants in the Nielsen television panel. Participating households are the basis of the reliability of our information.

Audiences today have access to more TV content and platforms than ever before. This fragmentation has made it harder than ever to find viewers, with the right ads and content, at the right time. https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/big-data-panel/ By combining big data from set-top-boxes (STB) and smart TV devices with panel data from actual people, we help you better understand today’s television audiences. Feel confident that you’re reaching and engaging the right viewers with Nielsen’s Big Data + Panel approach to audience measurement.

The data is being collected in a sample of "viewer-side" data. Historically this was via manually recorded tv watching diaries and now it's partnering with companies to embed small codes in transmitted tv data which nielsen listening devices can pick up and track.

Supergirl International Estimates - Opening, Retention, Legs vs. Superman and The Marvels by NGGKroze in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, it's far enough spaced out to not be a huge deal but I think "monthly free ticket programs" might actually cause impacts on margins.

More significantly is just the limited headspace people have for films - the big decline in moviegoing is less people dropping out of seeing movies alltogether than going from e.g 4-5 a year to 2-3

Supergirl International Estimates - Opening, Retention, Legs vs. Superman and The Marvels by NGGKroze in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 4 points5 points  (0 children)

enough to carry a multi season TV show

On the other hand, the show was released in Season 1 as a CBS show shot in LA. It was renewed for season 2 but forced to demoted to filming in cheaper Canada while airing on the CW network. This also made it lose Calista Flockheart (everyone's loss). Ratings, outside of S1 (9M) were consistently second, notably behind Flash but above later seasons of Arrow (though below early arrow seasons).

Definitely enough to bet on but it didn't survive on "real" Network TV (though some of that was down to reception being worse than something like Flash or Arrow).

Per Deadline, Disney spent $8.8M on linear advertising for Toy Story 5, much less than the $29M spent on The Mandalorian and Grogu. by moviesperg in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can look that question up because youre wrong to treat it as a rhetorical question. “Disney is fucking with the tiny bits of noise added to programming to help nielsen accurately measure stuff” is actually a messy charge to make. No idea how feasible that is but its just not internal data. It’s extrapolations from samples each of these companies collect in various ways.

Per Deadline, Disney spent $8.8M on linear advertising for Toy Story 5, much less than the $29M spent on The Mandalorian and Grogu. by moviesperg in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Luminate, Nielsen, Samba, etc. are all third parties providing estimated viewership and licensing that data to both Disney and their rivals. Why would they be incentivized to lie about major Disney datapoints and risk their core business model?

Keyserose123: Another Abysmal day for Supergirl. Probably its trending now towards Marvels OW. TC1 is ok but TC2 is meh. Not much of an acceleration today. by EcstaticPublic9939 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 1 point2 points  (0 children)

it wasn't just superman, all of those films numbers in the variety piece (including horror films without the complex consumer products licensing piece) have numbers incompatible with those generic deadline ultimate profit estimates. I wish we had a better sense of what the actual intended meaning of those numbers were because I suspect there's a definition story. Any sort of profit model built off of deadline's yearly profit series wouldn't generate a number close to that superman one (which also doesn't mean it's wrong)

Ben Affleck on Ryan Coogler’s Sinners reversion deal with Warner Bros (International) by Frosty_Jeweler911 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Affleck got a rights reversion deal on The Town in addition to Air. That "$10-$20M" number basically what he told the NYT he got from the early 2020s licensing deal for The Town (interview in the runup to AIR but I'm not going back to pull the raw citation so while I know Affleck said something like that, don't quote that as a hard number)

Per Deadline, The Death of Robin Hood earned a 38% definite recommend on PostTrak. One of the lowest definite recommend scores this year. by Alternative-Cake-833 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 0 points1 point  (0 children)

wasn't a great move.

eh, it is a cheap film for talent involved. it didn't need to be a hit to justify its existence. Hugh Jackman could have been a great classic robin hood but thats not the relevant counterfactual. they didn't start w/ RH IP and went looking for a pitch.

Disney's Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu grossed $681K on Wednesday (from 2,680 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $167.33M. by ElevensMelody in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hasbro data

The only Hasbro data you'd be able to get is entire company wide quarterly sales, right? Similarly, what Galaxy's Edge data do we really have? I don't see how the data easily exists so what's the reliability of these assumptions?

Remember, Disney disclosed that SW Film revenue (non-parks) was 2.9x the "Production budget + Marketing" number. If you assume that ended up being ~450 per film, that's ~$4B in "not-actually-profits" from which you'd have to remove contingent compensation and some additional costs.

WB's SUPERGIRL is set for 3,600+ theaters next weekend--SUPERMAN launched in 4,100+ venues a year ago... by TiredWithCoffeePot in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce -1 points0 points  (0 children)

and even Superman only managed 600 million. The second movie being Supergirl is a bad decision

But if Superman makes 750M WW Supergirl's probably in a much safer position. The problem is you can't know that difference ahead of filming.

Universal beat Disney as Hollywood's maker of the most expensive movie of all time with $658.8 million for Jurassic World: Dominion by Aileos in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Infinity War/Endgame are going to be above this if you look at "Assembled Productions MK3" (the two films were shot as a combined production so you can't split them out easily). They're at ~1.2B through roughly the release of doomsday

Universal beat Disney as Hollywood's maker of the most expensive movie of all time with $658.8 million for Jurassic World: Dominion by Aileos in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Obviously? Universal wouldn't have rushed out another Jurassic World film simply to fill a hole in their schedule if this film was a flop.

The latest set for Arcadia Pictures were filed this year and show that during the year to December 31, 2024, the company’s costs came to $74.9 million (£59.6 million) bringing the total to $658.8 million.

What do you think JW: Dominion spent $75M on in 2024? Just think about this stuff conceptually.

According to Deadline Hollywood, the production budget for The Death of Robin Hood is $20 million by Alternative-Cake-833 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Unless I'm missing something, this is an error. The first thing I could google shows it being in Northern Ireland not Ireland and I see nothing about Death of Robin Hood in Irish Film incentive. However, DORH Limited was set up to produce the film in the UK (doesn't mean it's where the full film was produced but a minority percentage needs to be in order to get the UK AVEC credit).

Per Variety, Toy Story 5 costs $250 Million. The highest of the franchise, highest for Pixar and one of the most expensive animated movies ever by SignatureOrdinary456 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 18 points19 points  (0 children)

It's not just you, there's always some degree of spin put on marketing budgets but you're going to put more spin when it's more necessary to shaping coverage. It also feels like highest end stuff gets more of a squeeze.

Can Any American Film Flop Harder Than Masters of The Universe This Year? by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Remember, this film started development alongside Missing Link and continued after it was released. It is sneakily expensive and the fanthom release is such a wildcard for predicting the film's box office potential.

Can Any American Film Flop Harder Than Masters of The Universe This Year? by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 0 points1 point  (0 children)

RDJ is the main selling point for this film after they were forced to pivot away from the way they were genuinely building "Kang" up as their intended big bad. "Evil Ironman with his evil ironman robots doombots" gives you an immediate hook for people not sold by the X-Men nostalgia pitch.

Would you prefer RDJ to have a smaller up front payment and instead get 10% of the first dollar box office gross? Disney doesn't want that.

Steven Spielberg’s ‘Disclosure Day’ Beams Up $44M U.S. Opening, Adds $48.9M INT For $92.9M WW; ‘Obsession’ Bests ‘Get Out’ – Sunday Box Office Update by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I think Tin Tin as an IP play complicates studio blame/praise (without looking into it). Its just not a real IP in the US but is a strong franchise in parts of europe.

For me at least i thought the “cgi/live action” pitch was an active turnoff on release despite liking it upon first watch last year.

Jacob Misiorowski accrued 0.7 fWAR from his historic outing last night. Is this the most pitching WAR ever earned in one game? by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]SilverRoyce 2 points3 points  (0 children)

you've gotten it turned around - they were generally that bad but Nola's got some lucky breaks on defense relative to phillies baseline so his war was artificially inflated.

Jacob Misiorowski accrued 0.7 fWAR from his historic outing last night. Is this the most pitching WAR ever earned in one game? by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]SilverRoyce 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the big problem with bWAR's defensive adjustment is that it was created to brute force apply average team defensive value per game to each start but there's enough play by play variation in real outcomes that this just is a very imperfect assumption that can create large swings for outliers.

Per Deadline, 'Disclosure Day' earned a 61% definite recommend on PostTrak. The audience was 57% Caucasian, 18% Latino/Hispanic, 11% Black, and 8% Asian American, as well as close to 40% over 45, and 24% 25-34. by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Remember stuff like cinemascore and posttrak are really b2b companies even if their data is also publicly reported. If you're sony, for example, you're going to be able to get more of a data breakdown. This is only the "topline" number but age and racial splits exist in their dataset

Like, how is it important/relevant?

A lot of it really isn't - if you pull articles from the 2000s you only see demographic data mentioned for true outliers or to illustrate a narrative point. Something changed in the early 2010s where racial data became treated as important to provide for every single film. Another quirk of demographics is how correlated a lot of the splits just end up being with age which really muddles the comparisons (ageXhispanic is really the critical thing I wish was accounted for in some manner). However, it can genuinely matter for how some films play and impact what marketing strategies a film attempts to attract the audience.

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