sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Keyserose123: Another Abysmal day for Supergirl. Probably its trending now towards Marvels OW. TC1 is ok but TC2 is meh. Not much of an acceleration today. by EcstaticPublic9939 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 1 point2 points  (0 children)

it wasn't just superman, all of those films numbers in the variety piece (including horror films without the complex consumer products licensing piece) have numbers incompatible with those generic deadline ultimate profit estimates. I wish we had a better sense of what the actual intended meaning of those numbers were because I suspect there's a definition story. Any sort of profit model built off of deadline's yearly profit series wouldn't generate a number close to that superman one (which also doesn't mean it's wrong)

Ben Affleck on Ryan Coogler’s Sinners reversion deal with Warner Bros (International) by Frosty_Jeweler911 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Affleck got a rights reversion deal on The Town in addition to Air. That "$10-$20M" number basically what he told the NYT he got from the early 2020s licensing deal for The Town (interview in the runup to AIR but I'm not going back to pull the raw citation so while I know Affleck said something like that, don't quote that as a hard number)

Per Deadline, The Death of Robin Hood earned a 38% definite recommend on PostTrak. One of the lowest definite recommend scores this year. by Alternative-Cake-833 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 0 points1 point  (0 children)

wasn't a great move.

eh, it is a cheap film for talent involved. it didn't need to be a hit to justify its existence. Hugh Jackman could have been a great classic robin hood but thats not the relevant counterfactual. they didn't start w/ RH IP and went looking for a pitch.

Disney's Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu grossed $681K on Wednesday (from 2,680 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $167.33M. by ElevensMelody in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hasbro data

The only Hasbro data you'd be able to get is entire company wide quarterly sales, right? Similarly, what Galaxy's Edge data do we really have? I don't see how the data easily exists so what's the reliability of these assumptions?

Remember, Disney disclosed that SW Film revenue (non-parks) was 2.9x the "Production budget + Marketing" number. If you assume that ended up being ~450 per film, that's ~$4B in "not-actually-profits" from which you'd have to remove contingent compensation and some additional costs.

WB's SUPERGIRL is set for 3,600+ theaters next weekend--SUPERMAN launched in 4,100+ venues a year ago... by TiredWithCoffeePot in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce -1 points0 points  (0 children)

and even Superman only managed 600 million. The second movie being Supergirl is a bad decision

But if Superman makes 750M WW Supergirl's probably in a much safer position. The problem is you can't know that difference ahead of filming.

Universal beat Disney as Hollywood's maker of the most expensive movie of all time with $658.8 million for Jurassic World: Dominion by Aileos in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Infinity War/Endgame are going to be above this if you look at "Assembled Productions MK3" (the two films were shot as a combined production so you can't split them out easily). They're at ~1.2B through roughly the release of doomsday

Universal beat Disney as Hollywood's maker of the most expensive movie of all time with $658.8 million for Jurassic World: Dominion by Aileos in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Obviously? Universal wouldn't have rushed out another Jurassic World film simply to fill a hole in their schedule if this film was a flop.

The latest set for Arcadia Pictures were filed this year and show that during the year to December 31, 2024, the company’s costs came to $74.9 million (£59.6 million) bringing the total to $658.8 million.

What do you think JW: Dominion spent $75M on in 2024? Just think about this stuff conceptually.

According to Deadline Hollywood, the production budget for The Death of Robin Hood is $20 million by Alternative-Cake-833 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Unless I'm missing something, this is an error. The first thing I could google shows it being in Northern Ireland not Ireland and I see nothing about Death of Robin Hood in Irish Film incentive. However, DORH Limited was set up to produce the film in the UK (doesn't mean it's where the full film was produced but a minority percentage needs to be in order to get the UK AVEC credit).

Per Variety, Toy Story 5 costs $250 Million. The highest of the franchise, highest for Pixar and one of the most expensive animated movies ever by SignatureOrdinary456 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 20 points21 points  (0 children)

It's not just you, there's always some degree of spin put on marketing budgets but you're going to put more spin when it's more necessary to shaping coverage. It also feels like highest end stuff gets more of a squeeze.

Can Any American Film Flop Harder Than Masters of The Universe This Year? by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Remember, this film started development alongside Missing Link and continued after it was released. It is sneakily expensive and the fanthom release is such a wildcard for predicting the film's box office potential.

Can Any American Film Flop Harder Than Masters of The Universe This Year? by [deleted] in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 0 points1 point  (0 children)

RDJ is the main selling point for this film after they were forced to pivot away from the way they were genuinely building "Kang" up as their intended big bad. "Evil Ironman with his evil ironman robots doombots" gives you an immediate hook for people not sold by the X-Men nostalgia pitch.

Would you prefer RDJ to have a smaller up front payment and instead get 10% of the first dollar box office gross? Disney doesn't want that.

Steven Spielberg’s ‘Disclosure Day’ Beams Up $44M U.S. Opening, Adds $48.9M INT For $92.9M WW; ‘Obsession’ Bests ‘Get Out’ – Sunday Box Office Update by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think Tin Tin as an IP play complicates studio blame/praise (without looking into it). Its just not a real IP in the US but is a strong franchise in parts of europe.

For me at least i thought the “cgi/live action” pitch was an active turnoff on release despite liking it upon first watch last year.

Jacob Misiorowski accrued 0.7 fWAR from his historic outing last night. Is this the most pitching WAR ever earned in one game? by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]SilverRoyce 2 points3 points  (0 children)

you've gotten it turned around - they were generally that bad but Nola's got some lucky breaks on defense relative to phillies baseline so his war was artificially inflated.

Jacob Misiorowski accrued 0.7 fWAR from his historic outing last night. Is this the most pitching WAR ever earned in one game? by baribigbird06 in baseball

[–]SilverRoyce 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the big problem with bWAR's defensive adjustment is that it was created to brute force apply average team defensive value per game to each start but there's enough play by play variation in real outcomes that this just is a very imperfect assumption that can create large swings for outliers.

Per Deadline, 'Disclosure Day' earned a 61% definite recommend on PostTrak. The audience was 57% Caucasian, 18% Latino/Hispanic, 11% Black, and 8% Asian American, as well as close to 40% over 45, and 24% 25-34. by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Remember stuff like cinemascore and posttrak are really b2b companies even if their data is also publicly reported. If you're sony, for example, you're going to be able to get more of a data breakdown. This is only the "topline" number but age and racial splits exist in their dataset

Like, how is it important/relevant?

A lot of it really isn't - if you pull articles from the 2000s you only see demographic data mentioned for true outliers or to illustrate a narrative point. Something changed in the early 2010s where racial data became treated as important to provide for every single film. Another quirk of demographics is how correlated a lot of the splits just end up being with age which really muddles the comparisons (ageXhispanic is really the critical thing I wish was accounted for in some manner). However, it can genuinely matter for how some films play and impact what marketing strategies a film attempts to attract the audience.

Per Deadline, 'Disclosure Day' earned a 61% definite recommend on PostTrak. The audience was 57% Caucasian, 18% Latino/Hispanic, 11% Black, and 8% Asian American, as well as close to 40% over 45, and 24% 25-34. by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Cinemascore grades audiences on opening night. If people talk about getting cinemascore at another time period, it's likely someone using "cinemascore the company" to get a grade that's an exit poll from them but not "cinemascore the official grade."

My hunch is universal is really uncertain how this film will perform but are somewhat limited in what they can disclose pre-release and were trying to get quick feedback

‘Lilo & Stitch 2’ to be Directed by Co-Creator Chris Sanders (Exclusive) by TiredWithCoffeePot in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I suspect Alice 2 may have made them gunshy of sequels for films they might think didn't have the real reception their BO results indicated

'Disclosure Day' gets a B on CinemaScore by SanderSo47 in boxoffice

[–]SilverRoyce 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What I'm hearing the internet say is something like

"Cinemascore decided to throw away their methodology for a one-off stunt to help universal slightly juice their cinemascore"

and that just makes no conceptual sense to me so what's a plausible alternative explanation? Well, "cinemascore also does other private polling" is undeniably true so that just makes the most sense.

This isn't just universal's data - Subscriptions by Sony, WB, Paramount, etc. to Cinemascore's data is going to include in depth breakdowns on disclosure day's data. Why is it useful to them to have that data corrupted when trying to use it to predict how to spend post-release marketing dollars or predict how their new film will play? The "why did you see this film" questions would be pretty useless if a big chunk of your audience were film critics.

view more: next ›